After a week of calamity in the Top 10, conference play is now officially underway. Here are my thoughts on this week’s slate in college football.
#2 Georgia @ Missouri
Spread: Georgia by 14
After both teams passed their respective early season tests, we’ll now get a better idea of what we’ll see from Georgia this year or–perhaps more interestingly–if Drew Lock really is a Heisman contender. UGA impressed me with their thrashing of what appeared to be the 2nd best team in the SEC East, South Carolina. Missouri, on the other hand, is still somewhat of a mystery. The Tigers may have one of the most potent offenses in the country thanks to Lock (who has already thrown for 11 TDs this year), but they struggled to take care of 0-3 Purdue. Nonetheless, the Bulldogs struggled with the Tigers last year, letting Lock throw 4 TDs. I expect Georgia to come into this game unprepared for Lock’s arm due to its young secondary. At the end of the day, however, the Bulldogs are bigger up front and have a more potent rushing attack. They’ll take care of business late but won’t cover the spread.
Prediction: Georgia 35, Missouri 24
#21 Texas A&M @ #1 Alabama
Spread: Alabama by 23.5
Jimbo and Saban meet as conference adversaries for the first time in what will be Bama’s first real test of the year. A&M fought a title contender in Clemson to the end and will be looking for a signature win against the Tide. ‘Bama is coming off of an absolute throttling of hated ‘Ole Miss but has yet to be challenged (the Rebels gave up 41 points to Southern Illinois, for crying out loud). I don’t necessarily believe that the Aggies have a chance to win this game–the Tide’s defense is a suffocating as ever and the offense appears to be reinvigorated courtesy of Tagovailoa–but there’s no way that Bama will cover that spread. They’ll lead by 10 at halftime and, then, will pull away in the 4th quarter.
Prediction: Alabama 35, Texas A&M 17
#22 TCU @ Texas
Spread: TCU by 2.5
I truly don’t know what to think about Texas. The ‘Horns lost to Maryland at a neutral site (yes, the same time that was curb-stomped by woeful Temple last week), barely pull away from Tulsa at home, and then all of a sudden completely annihilated USC. What should we expect this week? Personally (and I’m serious) I believe Texas is a contender if and when the team starts playing with consistency. As for the Horned Frogs, they took Ohio State to the 4th quarter and they’ve completely owned Texas since joining the Big XII–winning 5 of 6. I expect the same this time around. I expect Texas to fight hard, but the TCU defense–led by Banogu and Summers–will be too much for the ‘Horns. Expect for TCU to cover, but not by much.
My Prediction: TCU 30, Texas 24
#12 Mississippi State @ Kentucky
Spread: Miss St. by 10.5
Joe Moorhead’s Bulldogs will face quite a test in Kentucky. This UK team is now 3-0 for the 2nd year in a row, courtesy of that impressive win over then-ranked Florida in Gainesville. The Wildcats’ rushing attack, led by Benny Snell, has averaged over 300 YPG this year with a 7+ yards per carry average. State is much the same–also averaging over 300 YPG with nearly 8 yards per carry average. In a nutshell, the clock will run constantly and the outcome will come down to which team has the superior defense. In that department, I think the Bulldogs have the edge. It’s stout D, led by Montez Sweat and Gerri Green, is giving up less than 100 yards a game on the ground. With superior talent and a more balanced team, I expect for MSU to take care of business in a hostile environment. Just don’t expect them to cover.
Prediction: Mississippi State 31, Kentucky 21
#19 Wisconsin @ Iowa
Spread: Wisconsin by 3.5
Of all the teams that could have given Wisconsin its first loss, the last team I expected was BYU. Now the Badgers’ standing is in doubt as they head into a big, early-season battle against the Iowa Hawkeyes–on the road, no less. The conversation has switched–from the Badgers as a playoff team to whether Whisky has enough to win the Big Ten West. The Hawkeyes now have a golden opportunity to assert itself as a league and national power. Jonathan Taylor will carry the ball over 25 times and make the game deceptively low-scoring. And I think Iowa’s balanced attack will keep the game close. As I see it, Wisconsin will not only fail to cover the spread, but the Hawkeyes will win outright on a last-minute field goal.
Prediction: Iowa 20, Wisconsin 17
GAME OF THE WEEK
#7 Stanford @ #20 Oregon
Spread: Oregon by 1.5
Pac-12 North supremacy is on the line in what could be a classic night game in Eugene. Stanford has been rather ho-hum early on with Bryce Love not being as proficient as he was a year ago (he’s also coming off of an injury from last week). Still, though, the Cardinal are dangerous–with potential on offense and a stout defense led by eight seniors. Oregon, on the other hand, is flying high with potential Heisman candidate Justin Herbert, who already has 12 TDs. The Ducks’ spread rushing attack is averaging over 250 YPG. But although expectations were high for both teams heading into the season, neither squad has lived up to that hype–at least not yet. And in this game, I have my doubts about how Love will do post-injury in a hostile environment against a conference foe. I think the Ducks will benefit from home-field advantage and will win by a field goal.
Prediction:Oregon 27, Stanford 24
