Baltimore plays well in Pittsburgh, but I think the Steelers will prevail in a close game.
WHAT: Week Four at Pittsburgh Steelers
WHEN: 8:20 p.m. (ET); Sunday, September 30
WHERE: Heinz Field; Pittsburgh (68,400)
RECORDS: Ravens, 2-1; Steelers, 1-1-1
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Steelers lead, 24-20; in Pittsburgh, the Steelers lead, 14-8, and have won four of the last five meetings
TV: WBAL-TV, Channel 11 (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, booth; Michele Tafoya, sidelines)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Dennis Pitta, booth; Justin Forsett, sidelines)
REFEREE: Tony Corrente
About the Steelers
—A traditional battle like this one will feature both teams sporting traditional looks. The host Steelers will wear their usual black home jerseys with gold pants. The visiting Ravens will sport white jerseys with either white or black pants.
—Historically, the Steelers franchise has had a contrasting dual identity. From 1933-1971, Pittsburgh had only eight winning seasons with one playoff appearance. Since then, the Steelers have had 30 playoff appearances (the team total of 31 is the league’s second-highest) with 23 division crowns (the league’s third-most). Since the AFC North was established in 2002, the Steelers have had the most division titles (eight). Baltimore and Cincinnati have four each.
—Pittsburgh’s eight Super Bowl appearances are tied for the second-most all-time with Dallas and Denver. Those teams are two behind record-holder New England. The Steelers’ six Super Bowl championships are one better than the five each won by Dallas, San Francisco, and New England. Pittsburgh has made 16 appearances in the conference title game–an AFC record and tied with Dallas–for third-most all-time behind the New York Giants (19) and Green Bay (17).
—The Ravens and Steelers will be meeting again on a Sunday-night telecast. That makes it 12 straight years the pair will play an after-dark game. The return match is set for Nov. 4 in Baltimore. That breaks a string of three times in four years that the return match will have been played at Heinz Field. It will also mark the fifth-earliest date that the two-game season series will end. It concluded as early as Oct. 18 (2000) in the past.
—A total of 16 of the team’s 44 regular-season meetings have been shown in Prime Time. The Ravens have registered three sweeps (’06, ’11, ’15), while the Steelers have five sweeps (’97, ’98, ’02, ’08, ‘17). There have been 14 splits. Pittsburgh has won three of four postseason meetings.
—The history of this rivalry has been enriched by the number of close games. The Ravens and Steelers have played to one-score margins in 17 of their last 21 regular-season meetings, dating back to December 2007. Overall, 13 of the last 20 regular-season meetings have been decided by three or fewer points–the most by any pair of teams (outdistancing Dallas-Washington and San Francisco-St.Louis/Los Angeles with eight each). In the last 26 meetings, the Ravens and Steelers have 13 wins each. Baltimore holds a ten-point edge (546-536).
—Last year, the Steelers finished at 13-3, a season that included an eight-game winning streak. The season was capped off by a home win over Baltimore — and a 10-1 run heading into the playoffs — before Pittsburgh lost at home in the Divisional round to Jacksonville, 45-42.
—The game against Baltimore this week is the first of two straight at home, but the Steelers won’t play two straight home games for the rest of the season. Moreover, five of the team’s first eight games are against AFC North teams.
—When Heinz Field opened in 2001, the first visitor to win there was Baltimore. The Ravens won that game, 13-10, during that inaugural season.
—Twelfth-year head coach Mike Tomlin is the 16th head coach in Steelers’ history, but he’s only the third coach since 1969. Tomlin has an overall record of 125-68-1 (.646), the second-best percentage among active coaches (Bill Belichick). His win total is just two behind Marvin Lewis for fourth-most among actives. Tomlin reached the playoffs four times in his first five seasons, and he became the youngest coach to win a Super Bowl (36) when his team beat Arizona in Super Bowl XLIII.
—Tomlin is well-known for going for two-point conversions. The Steelers converted a league-record-high eight in 2015. Last year the number was four.
—Pittsburgh’s rocky start to the season is related to undisciplined play. The Steelers have committed a league-high 37 penalties (14 more than Baltimore) and have racked up a league-high 361 yards. The Steelers also lead the league in unnecessary roughness calls (five) and have five defensive holding penalties, the league’s second-most behind Kansas City (eight).
–The Steeler’s line play has been tighter. The O-line has registered only two false starts and has had three encroachment calls. No one on the team has more than three individual penalties.
—After posting a modest plus-2 in turnover ratio last year, the Steelers are off to another slow start in that department. They sit at minus-1 through three games, which is the same as the Ravens. Pittsburgh has intercepted four passes and caused three fumbles, recovering two of those miscues. On the other side of the ball, Steelers’ turnovers have contributed to slow starts and finishes; the team has scored just six first-quarter points and only nine in the fourth.
—Through three weeks, the Steelers are ranked second (23rd rushing, second passing, seventh scoring). They are tied for third in red-zone touchdown rate, but only rank 24th on third-down conversions. Defensively, Pittsburgh is ranked 29th overall (25th vs. rush, 28th vs. pass, 28th scoring, allowing 30 points per game). The Steelers are fourth in allowing third-down conversions but are tied for 19th in the red zone.
—Starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, now in his 15th season, made his debut off the bench in Baltimore in 2004. He replaced Tommy Maddox that day. The two-time Super Bowl champion has 136 wins, the seventh-most in NFL history by a starting quarterback. Through three games, he has completed 66.2 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. Roethlisberger is averaging 8.2 yards per attempt, but he has been sacked eight times. His passer rating is 96.2. He is 12-9 against the Ravens. Over that time he has 34 touchdown passes, 22 interceptions, and an overall 85.5 rating. Ravens’ linebacker Terrell Suggs has sacked Roethlisberger 17 times–more than any other player.
—Top receiver Antonio Brown had 11 receptions for 213 yards against the Ravens in their last Heinz Field meeting. But it’s second-year slot receiver, Juju Smith-Schuster, who leads the team in catches through three weeks with 27 with an average of 13.2 yards per catch. He scored in last year’s meeting in Baltimore and has an active streak of four straight 100-yard games. Brown isn’t far behind, though, with 24 catches and two scores. New running back, James Conner, has 15 catches to go with his team-high 213 rushing yards (3.9 ypc and three touchdowns). Smith-Schuster and Conner are 1-2 in the AFC in scrimmage yards (356 and 352, respectively). TEs Jesse James and Vance McDonald have combined for 16 grabs.
—The Steelers’ offensive line is one of the league’s most cohesive and reliable unit. Only right guard David DeCastro has had recent injury concerns. That’s serious enough because DeCastro is a three-time Pro Bowl pick and two-time All-Pro. Left guard Ramon Foster went undrafted, but he’s in his ninth year as a starter. Center Maurkice Pouncey hasn’t missed a game since 2015. Left tackle Alejandro Villanueva is an Army veteran, tough and dependable. Right tackle Marcus Gilbert has been a starter since 2011.
—Third-year nose tackle Javon Hargrave is listed as the starter in the middle of the defensive line. He’s versatile, though, and can be moved around in sub-packages, too. The real playmakers up front are Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuit. Heyward is one of the best pass-rushing down linemen in the league. He had 12 sacks last year and–in his last five games against the Ravens–he has had three sacks, two forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. Wow! Tuitt seems better suited to the Steelers’ new one-gap style, which is a more aggressive scheme that puts a lot of pressure on quarterbacks.
—Outside linebacker TJ Watt leads a multi-faceted pass rush with three of the team’s 11 sacks. He is the younger brother of Houston Texans standout, JJ Watt. On the other side is Bud Dupree, a draft pick out of Kentucky and teammate of Ravens’ linebacker Za’Darius Smith. Dupree flies to the ball. Last week he back an interception for a score in Tampa. But there are issues. Pittsburgh lost an inside threat when Ryan Shazier (paralysis) was forced to retire. The good news is that former Colts’ free agent, Jon Bostic, had six tackles and a sack at Tampa. Another bright spot, Vince Williams, surprised observers last year with eight sacks.
—Pittsburgh has tried desperately to revamp a leaky secondary. The team shed three players in the offseason and tried filling the loss by drafting Virginia Tech’s Terrell Edmunds in the first round. But, at least for now, Edmunds is a backup safety to listed starters Morgan Burnett and Sean Davis. Prince Georges County native Joe Haden had a bounce-back year at corner. He and 2016 first-rounder, Artie Burns, will be the starters. Burns had just one pickoff last year. Pittsburgh is counting on this group to make plays. The Steelers’ fate may depend on whether they can.
—The Steelers’ Special Teams unit made an exceptionally underrated free-agent pickup in second-year returner (and former Dallas Cowboy draft pick), Ryan Switzer. Switzer has averaged 11 yards per punt return and almost 20 yards per kickoff runback. The kick-coverage team has been excellent, too, allowing just 14.3 yards per return. On the other hand, punt coverage has been poor–yielding 15 yards an attempt.
—Veteran placekicker Chris Boswell, the AFC’s Pro Bowl kicker last year, has fallen victim to the leaguewide kicking slump. He has already missed two extra points and is just 1-for-4 on field-goal tries. Boswell has three misses between 40-49 yards and hasn’t even tried a kick from beyond 50. However, Boswell is the Steelers’ all-time leading scorer and set team records last year for both field goals and points. Fourth-year punter Jordan Berry is average at best. He’s netting over 36 yards per punt and has the ability to target kicks for the coffin corner.
Prediction
The Steelers are favored to win a third straight AFC North title and ninth title, overall. But this team has been slowed by a porous defense and undisciplined play.
Like the Ravens of recent years, they are not making enough plays. But this matchup brings out the best in both teams.
Yes, the Ravens play well in Pittsburgh but, in recent years, they don’t have victories to show for it. I think Sunday’s game will be another good battle with the home team eeking out a win.
Steelers 26, Ravens 24
