Here’s my analysis of the anticipated matchup between two AFC teams on the rise.
WHAT: Week Three vs. Denver Broncos
WHEN: 1 p.m. (ET); Sunday, September 23
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium; Baltimore (71,008)
RECORDS: Broncos, 2-0; Ravens, 1-1
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Broncos lead, 6-5; in Baltimore, the Ravens are 4-1, winning the first four meetings before losing in December 2012
TV: WJZ-TV, Channel 13 (Andrew Catalon, James Lofton, booth)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Dennis Pitta, booth; Stan White, Kirk McEwen, sidelines)
REFEREE: Ron Torbert
About the Broncos
—The Denver Broncos were part of the upstart American Football League when that circuit was born in 1960. The Broncos were largely unsuccessful during the AFL era, posting a record of 39-97-4, before being placed in the AFC West after the merger–where they’ve remained ever since.
—The team is currently owned by the Pat Bowlen Trust, named after the 74-year-old owner of the team, who ran it from 1984-2014 before stepping down due to the onset of Alzheimer’s disease. Bowlen is one of two ‘Contributor’ nominees for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2019, along with longtime Dallas Cowboys executive Gil Brandt.
—The Broncos have made 22 postseason appearances in their 58-year history. That includes seven wild-card berths and 15 division titles, including five in a row between 2011-2015. However, Denver has not made the playoffs since then. The Broncos are 8-2 in AFC Championship Games (the conference’s second-best winning percentage behind Cincinnati, 2-0, 1.000) and have appeared in eight Super Bowls, tied with Pittsburgh and Dallas for second-most behind New England (ten).
—The Broncos’ five Super Bowl losses are tied with New England for the most defeats. But Denver has won in three of its last four Super Bowl appearances after losing its first four. Denver was victorious in Super Bowl 32 (vs. Green Bay), 33 (vs. Atlanta) and 50 (vs. Carolina), while losing Super Bowl 12 (Dallas), 21 (New York Giants), 22 (Washington), 24 (San Francisco), and 48 (Seattle).
—Denver won five of six-lifetime meetings with the then-Baltimore Colts. When Denver beat the Ravens in 2012, it marked the franchise’s first win in Charm City since Week Two of 1983. In that game, the Memorial Stadium crowd famously jeered rookie quarterback John Elway for spurning the team that had drafted him, viz., the Colts. Elway left that game with an injury and Steve DeBerg rallied Denver to victory.
—The Broncos began the 2018 season with two straight home wins. Denver won a three-point squeaker over the Seattle Seahawks and then got a one-point win over the Oakland Raiders on a last-second field goal. Sunday’s game in Baltimore marks a stretch that will see the Broncos play four of their next six games on the road. Later this season, Denver will play Pittsburgh and Cleveland at home and travel to Cincinnati.
—Despite its lukewarm point total so far, Denver currently ranks fourth in total offense after two games (second rushing, 13th passing, tied for 14th scoring). The team is tied for seventh on third-down conversions and tied for tenth in time-of-possession. Defensively, the Broncos are 14th (tied for sixth vs. rush, 19th vs. pass, tied for 13th scoring). Denver has allowed third-down conversions just 22 percent of the time, the best mark in the league, but Baltimore is close behind at 25 percent.
—The Broncos are sporting a modest minus-1 turnover ratio. They’ve registered three takeaways and four giveaways. Denver has not yet to lose a fumble through two games. In fact, no Broncos’ ball-carrier has fumbled. Last year, the Broncos’ turnover ratio was the league’s second-worst (minus-17). Denver has committed 13 penalties through two games with four offensive holding calls and three defensive holding infractions. The total is tied for the league’s fifth-fewest.
—Denver is led by former Colorado quarterback and NFL cornerback Vance Joseph. He took over head-coaching duties on an interim basis late last year and he was named the Broncos’ 16th full-time coach in January. The assistant quarterback’s coach is Klint Kubiak, son of ex-Ravens offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak.
–-Ex-Rams and Vikings quarterback Case Keenum is the new Broncos’ signal-caller. In the off-season, Keenum signed a $36 million free-agent contract. He’s off to an average start. Keenum, who faced the Ravens in 2015 and 2017–splitting the two games–has completed 59.4 percent of his passes with three touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 73.6 through two games. He has been sacked only twice, working behind a line that allowed 52 sacks last year, tied for fourth-most. Keenum has 13 touchdown passes and five interceptions in his last six road games.
—In the backfield, carries have been split nearly evenly between undrafted rookie Phillip Lindsay and third-round pick Royce Freeman, a big 240-pound back from Oregon. Last week against Oakland, Lindsay had over 100 total scrimmage yards for a second straight game, making him the first-ever undrafted rookie to reach that milestone in each of his first two games. That happened despite the Broncos getting just one first down in the first half against the Raiders and not scoring an offensive touchdown until the third quarter.
—Nine-year veteran Emmanuel Sanders has gotten the bulk of the receptions with 14 through two games. No one else has more than three. Lindsay and second-round pick Courtland Sutton–who, like Sanders, is an SMU product–each has three. Demaryius Thomas, who barely missed a sixth straight 1000-yard campaign last year, is in his ninth season and has had 12 catches and two scores in his past two games against the Ravens. While rookie Penn State product, DaeSean Hamilton, was overshadowed by Saquon Barkley in college, he shows promise and speed in the slot. Tight end Jake Butt has been oft-injured and Jeff Heuerman has just three catches so far.
—Denver’s offensive line is a mix of youth and experience. Left tackle Garett Boles led the league in penalties last year, but he’s only in his second season. On the right side is former 2010 Oakland third-round pick Jared Veldheer, who can play tackle or guard, but has had trouble staying healthy. The left guard is former Dallas starter Ron Leary, who is back at his natural position, and third-year player Connor McGovern, who took over right-guard duties late last year. Fourth-year center Matt Paradis is one of the league’s most underrated at that position. He hasn’t missed a snap in three years.
—The Broncos have one of the league’s more undersized defensive ends in Adam Gotsis. He put in plenty of off-season weight-room work and is a lot stronger this fall. At the other end, is seven-year veteran Derek Wolfe, who is solid and consistent when healthy. The nose tackle is the 13-year veteran (and longtime Cincinnati Bengal) Domata Peko, who has had his repetitions monitored through the preseason (he’s still the starter, though).
—The Broncos’ well-known edge-rushing prowess comes from the second level with former Super Bowl MVP Von Miller. However, Miller slumped to just ten sacks last year and the Broncos recorded just 33 as a team–11th-fewest in the league. Miller has four sacks through two games this year. With DeMarcus Ware retired, the Broncos took Bradley Chubb in the first round to pair with Miller to get the pass rush rejuvenated again. Chubb can play in either a two- or three-point stance and is tough to contain. Todd Davis (team-high 13 tackles) and Brandon Marshall (seven tackles, sack in last game vs. Ravens) are the inside backers. Fourth-round rookie Josey Jewell and the newly-healthy Shane Ray lend plenty of depth.
—Denver lost cornerback Aqib Talib to offseason free agency. To replace him, the Broncos promoted Bradley Roby (six pass breakups in past five road games) to pair with Chris Harris, the veteran who picked off Joe Flacco for a long touchdown in Baltimore in 2012. To help with depth, the Broncos signed troubled Bengals’ cornerback Adam ‘Pac-Man’ Jones and Tremaine Brock, late of the Minnesota Vikings. Third-year safety Justin Simmons has speed and range. He is partnered with nine-year NFL veteran Darian Stewart, who came over from Baltimore as a 2015 free agent.
—Fifth-year placekicker Brandon McManus started the 2017 season in a surprising slump, struggling with accuracy even in Denver’s thin air, missing five of his first 13 field-goal tries. But he closed strong, hitting 16 of 19 kicks. This year he has been good on his first four attempts, including two that came from over 50 yards. Flamboyant punter Marquette King (late of Oakland) is grossing 47 yards per punt and netting 43 yards on average.
—The return game has been quiet for Denver thus far. ‘Pac-Man’ Jones has run back three punts for nine yards. Lindsay is listed as the team’s kickoff return specialist, but the Broncos have not had a chance to run back any kickoffs so far this campaign.
Prediction
Ravens fans should feel fortunate this game is taking place in Week Three. Denver has the potential to be a very good team, especially after the offense develops. But for now, at least, the Broncos are paying their bills with defense–something that the Ravens know quite well.
A few big plays and some special-teams breakouts might make this one entertaining. But the bottom line is the Ravens need to win this game. Three consecutive road games loom on the horizon.
Ravens 23, Broncos 16
