The bye weeks begin (Carolina and Washington), but there’s no idle time for me.
The slow climb back to respectability began in Week Three. I went 9-7 (thankfully, with no ties) to bring my season-to-date mark to 24-22-2, a .520 win rate (note: ties count as a half-win and half-loss when calculating win percentage).
(All games are on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.)
Los Angeles Rams 33, Minnesota 23 (Thursday night): This is a good matchup, but it’s a tough one to pick. Road teams don’t play well on Thursdays, but the host Rams could be without two starting corners. Meanwhile, how did the Vikings lose at home to Buffalo, of all teams? It’s just more evidence of how fickle this league is. I’ll take the home team’s younger and more consistent quarterback in what could be a real shootout.
Chicago 23, Tampa Bay 16: It was a bit alarming to see the Bears have to rally to beat an outclassed Arizona team, but (in the end) they got the road win. Now they go home for a game against the Buccaneers, who travel on a short week. Tampa has the offense. Chicago has the defense and home field. Sounds like a Bears win to me.
Atlanta 30, Cincinnati 17: Going on the road against a second straight NFC South opponent will be tough enough for the Bengals but, to make matters worse, AJ Green is hobbled with a groin problem. There’s more, too. Andy Dalton is regressing more with every passing week and the Falcons are capable of lighting up the scoreboard. I think this game could be one of the week’s biggest blowouts.
Dallas 26, Detroit 19: Beating New England is a big notch in anyone’s belt–especially for the Lions. But the Cowboys are better at home and have a vastly underrated defense–one that’s good enough to beat a mysterious, inconsistent team, like Detroit.
Green Bay 24, Buffalo 10: Sure, the Bills went on the road last week and won at Minnesota. How did that happen!? I chalk it up to the Vikings overlooking them in what turned out to be a classic trap game. And, now, rookie QB Josh Allen takes his team to Lambeau Field to face none other than Aaron Rodgers. I just don’t see history repeating itself.
Indianapolis 17, Houston 13: While the Colts don’t look very competitive, the truth is that they’ve been involved in games that have had some degree of suspense. This week they’re at home for a division game against a Houston team that simply can’t get out of its own way. How so? They lost at home to the feeble Giants (I called it). Indy breaks through and wins here.
Jacksonville 23, New York Jets 9: The Jaguars are home for a second straight week, wanting badly to atone for a head-scratching, 9-6 loss to Tennessee. This is a pivotal early-season game if the hosts want to re-establish themselves as a team to be feared come playoff time. What do I think? I’ll take Jacksonville’s young, fast secondary over rookie quarterback Sam Darnold.
New England 35, Miami 24: Patriots win at home. Right? Usually, that’s a no-brainer. This year? The Pats are missing key pieces on offense and Tom Brady hasn’t been good enough to get things done by himself. And there’s another element in this game, too. Miami has a penchant for playing well in Foxborough. And while it’s tempting to go with the Dolphins, the reality is that Miami is unbeaten on the backs of three soft teams. I’ll take NE in this one.
Philadelphia 29, Tennessee 27: Because this is an interconference matchup, that is, a game between teams that don’t see each other much, this is the week’s most underrated game. And the stakes are high, too. Both teams are in desperate situations–the Titans aren’t putting points on the board and the Eagles are having a Super Bowl hangover. Outcome? I’ll take the defending champs in a tight one.
Oakland 13, Cleveland 9: It baffles me why so many fans nationwide root for a sorry outfit like the Browns. Many believe that Cleveland is primed to take a second straight win in Oakland against the winless Raiders–a team that seems to disappear in the second halves of games. My guess is that Oakland will win this one, but the game may set back the sport a few decades.
Seattle 20, Arizona 16: While the Seahawks are not what they used to be, they may have saved their season–for now, at least–by beating Dallas and thereby avoiding falling into a 0-3 hole. The host Cardinals put forth their most dogged effort of the season against the Bears … but it still wasn’t enough to win.
New Orleans 40, New York Giants 23: My gut feeling last week told me to pick an offensively-inept Giants team to win at Houston. Mark one for my gut! But while Big Blue may have come out of its slumber, it must now go up against a Saints club that’s used to putting plenty of points on the board. New York should hang in there for a while, but it will get worn down in the end.
Los Angeles Chargers 31, San Francisco 21: If 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had not incurred a season-ending knee injury at Kansas City last week, I would have taken San Francisco in this one–even as the road team. The Chargers are off to a slower start than I expected, but they are healthier and a lot more consistent than SF.
Pittsburgh 26, Baltimore 24 (Sunday night): The Steelers have shown uncharacteristic lack of discipline–an eye-popping 37 penalties through three games! There’s in-house tension, too. But this is Pittsburgh, after all, a team that’s used to overcoming distress–just as it did Monday night in Tampa. I predict these old rivals will put on a great prime-time show with Team Tomlin coming out on top.
Kansas City 27, Denver 17 (Monday night): The Chiefs have the NFL’s most potent offense and it doesn’t matter whether they play home or away. Meanwhile, Denver has played well at home, but against teams that are nowhere near KC’s potency. The Broncos will fight hard in this one, but youth and lack of discipline should cost them in the end.
