Here are my predictions. Enjoy!
The curtain goes up this week on the 99th National Football League season, and it’s time for my weekly straight-up picks. As usual, they do not involve point spreads, for the scoreboard always reads 0-0 when a game starts–not 4½-0 or something similar.
Last season, I was 157-99 (.613), down six wins from 2016. My season-record (in 2011) was 169 wins.
Let’s see if I can do better this year. As the great Jackie Gleason said, “Away we go!”
(all games on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted)
Atlanta 27, Philadelphia 20 (Thursday night): Simply put, Matt Ryan is both fully healthy and ready to play, and Carson Wentz is not. Yes, the Super Bowl champs deserve respect and should return to the playoffs this year, but the Falcons want at least a little revenge for their road playoff loss before going on with the rest of their season.
Baltimore 20, Buffalo 16: Change comes slowly, even during a season that comprises only 16 games. The Ravens should have a much better offense this year, but with Joe Flacco and his top targets not playing much in August, getting in sync under game conditions could be tough at first. Still, the Ravens are the better overall team.
Pittsburgh 31, Cleveland 10: It’s amazing how just a few splashy, big-name additions can get people either excited or fearful. But with poor quarterback play and feuding coaches, I truly believe these are the same old Browns, winners of three games (at best) this year. Their self-pitying fans get to see the latest incarnation of ignominy up close.
Indianapolis 23, Cincinnati 17: Sure, football is the ultimate team game, but we saw what happened when Colts quarterback Andrew Luck didn’t play: the rest of the team didn’t, either. The team put some effort into their offensive line this year, and that – combined with a healthy Luck – should at least get them off to a good start.
Tennessee 30, Miami 10: The Dolphins were picked clean in free agency and could be in the running for the top draft pick. The Titans aren’t world-beaters, but they have more than enough talent to go on the road and easily win this one.
Minnesota 24, San Francisco 20: San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t lost as a starter … since falling to Towson in the 2013 college playoffs. That streak comes to a halt on the road against one of the league’s best defenses. The Vikings were one game away from hosting a Super Bowl and should be in the mix again.
New England 26, Houston 10: The Patriots’ receiving corps is more of a revolving door than usual, and that could prove problematic against a fully-healthy Texans defense. But New England has just enough talent to contain DeShaun Watson and pull away. Besides, the Pats rarely lose at home.
New Orleans 40, Tampa Bay 23: This is perhaps the biggest mismatch of the week. One of my most glaring mistakes last year was picking the Buccaneers to win the NFC South. It’s a good division–perhaps the NFL’s best. Now, they go on the road against one of the league’s most balanced teams.
New York Giants 27, Jacksonville 20: This game needs a sponsor. How about the Tom Coughlin Sourpuss Bowl? The Giants, a team Coughlin took to two Super Bowls, are at home and can boast a better and healthier offense (on paper) than they had last year. Many pundits feel Jacksonville will take a step back this year. Maybe the Jags will, too, but I have a feeling that this game could be a case of the Giants re-establishing some pride.
Los Angeles Chargers 30, Kansas City 27: This is a really good intradivisional battle to open the year, and the Chargers’ soccer-stadium home should be sold out. Los Angeles has built up a ball-hawking pass rush and secondary to go with Philip Rivers’ multi-faceted offense. That said, the Chiefs will be heard from this year.
Dallas 19, Carolina 17: It’s a tricky road opener for the Cowboys because they will face one of the league’s most underrated defenses. Getting off to a fast start will be important for Dallas. The ‘Boys should have a fully-healthy backfield, as well as left tackle Tyron Smith back on the line. His absence hurt this team more than losing Ezekiel Elliott. I think this game should be a bruising battle that the Cowboys will win.
Arizona 20, Washington 9: The Cardinals have the home field and a promising young quarterback. But both of these squads play in tough divisions. Washington did a horrible job tackling during the pre-season, and that problem could nullify an advantage gained by acquiring Alex Smith at QB.
Denver 23, Seattle 14: If this game were at CenturyLink Field, I’d take the Seahawks–despite Seattle’s continued defensive deterioration. But it’s not being played there. So, even while I don’t think the Broncos will resurrect themselves into a playoff team, I do think they could expose Seattle’s newly-sprung leaks.
Green Bay 33, Chicago 17 (Sunday night); The league’s best archrivalry will take the Sunday-night spotlight (sorry, Ravens-Steelers and Cowboys-Redskins). The Pack proved surprisingly vulnerable at Lambeau Field last year –getting shut out by the Ravens, for one thing–but GB has all of its weapons back. The Bears are improving, but not fast enough for this game.
Detroit 26, New York Jets 13 (Monday night, early): This is an interconference battle between two teams that have shaky pasts and uncertain futures. That makes this game a tough one to pick. But, when in doubt, I always take the better quarterback. Who’s that? I believe Sam Darnold was the best quarterback in this year’s draft (Cleveland should have taken him!), but he’s a rookie and Matthew Stafford isn’t.
Los Angeles Rams 40, Oakland 20 (Monday night, late): In my preseason picks, I said that the Jon Gruden experiment wouldn’t work for the Raiders–and that was before Oakland traded away Khalil Mack and acquired AJ McCarron. You can’t shuffle around key pieces a few days before playing one of the league’s most talented rosters, AKA the Rams.
