The Portland Trail Blazers’ playoff window is small this year. Here’s why.
Ever since a couple years ago–when I was the only sports prognosticator in the country to pick the Trail Blazers’ number of season wins–I’ve had performance anxiety about trying to match that accuracy.
That year the numbers lined up so obviously. But, this year, the Blazers’ numerical scheme is obscure.
So–with a deep breath–I’m going on record (in mid-August, no less)–and predict that the Blazers will once again exceed what many pros, pundits, and Vegas and ESPN prognosticators predict for the 2018-19 season–39-to-43 wins. And, I might add, even with more wins in the bank, the Blazers might still miss the playoffs.
But before I continue, I really need to vent about the NBA!
Long ago, the NBA lost its identity as a sport. It’s a business. And it’s a business that’s out of control. The league has gone wild with inordinate egos, self-serving power plays (was there ever any real loyalty?), super media hype, and big billionaire businessmen who buy the championship trophy with super teams. On top of that, we now have fraternization with global gambling syndicates.
Expect fan interest to decline measurably in the next few seasons, especially for smaller market fans. More and more of them will realize that their teams have a near-zero chance of winning the title (unless, of course, a billionaire owner can buy it).
Now, back to the Blazers….
Rookie Anfernee Simons (photo, Oregonlive.com)
Considering the self-inflicted financial and contractual restraints that Neil Olshey has put himself and his the team into, I think this season will determine his fate with Portland.
And if Terry Stotts can get over his morbid fear of playing rookies (Lillard the exception)–and turn young guys loose–then this team has a chance, a real chance to win.
I implored Stotts to do that last year. When he played the rooks, Portland won. When his sphincter muscle got tight–and he reverted to playing the regulars–the Blazers struggled. They often played more not to lose than to win. Case in point–the 2018 playoffs.
This year, the Blazers will have the best collection of guards (N=5) in the league. I say this: give them plenty of experience so they’ll be ready for the playoffs. With that in mind, don’t be surprised to see four guards on the floor during games this season.
But also keep in mind that the Blazers have a record of releasing guards who end up playing well somewhere else, i.e., Jamal Crawford, Patty Mills, Will Barton, and probably Pat Connaughton. This situation does not imply forsaking Dame and CJ. In fact, the numbers suggest this will be a stellar year for CJ. By season’s end, his statistics will most likely surpass Dame’s.
Seth Curry’s numbers align to suggest a good fit and significant role for him by playoff time. The numbers also tell me that Nurkic will play authoritatively early in the season and fade as time goes on. Finally, I predict that Zach Collins will be up-and-down for a while before settling into a more steady role later in the season.
Without injury and some other massively disturbing factor(s), I say the Blazers will end up with around 47-49 wins.
But with a loaded Western Conference, that performance may not get be good enough for the Blazers to make the playoffs.
