Is Bagley able to become the NBA’s next unicorn?
Over the past five seasons, the Sacramento Kings’ management hasn’t exhibited high basketball IQ. Whether it was trading Isaiah Thomas and Hassan Whiteside or drafting Thomas Robinson and Nik Stauskas, the organization hasn’t been able to either pick or retain talent.
Is this year a different story?
The team selected Duke forward Marvin Bagley 2nd overall in the 2018 NBA draft. He’s seen as a bonafide offensive star at the four or the five.
Courtesy: washingtonpost.com
But that’s where the problem lies.
Currently, the Kings have Willie Cauley Stein, Skal Labissiere, Harry Giles, and Nemanja Bjelica at frontcourt positions. As a result, Bagley likely won’t get a lot of playing time. The Kings have a logjam up front, but not a lot of personnel at the three.
Yes, one position that’s open is small forward.
Current options include Iman Shumpert, Justin Jackson, and Bogdan Bogdanovic. But none of them has a game that fits the position offensively. Because they lack ball handling skills and three-level scoring, all three are best suited at shooting guard.
Those deficiencies could open the door for Bagley.
Last week, Kings general manager Vlade Divac spoke to the media about Bagley’s role: “He [Bagley] can play small forward. He can be a three-to-five guy. That’s Marvin’s unique talent. His decision being drafted was an easy choice for us.”
So, can Bagley play small forward? The quick answer is no. The long answer is complicated.
Bagley can certainly play small forward. At Duke, he was able to score in a variety of ways. He could beat opposing bigs one-on-one in the post. Consider the fact that he finished first in the ACC in total field goal percentage at 61 percent. He was also able to take his game outside the paint, too. Bagley shot 40 percent from downtown.
Another key aspect of his game is rebounding. Last year, Bagley led the ACC in rebounds per game with 11.1.
So, what’s the problem for Bagley in Sacramento? There are two–athleticism and lineups.
First, there’s always an athleticism different when a big man shifts to a smaller position. In college, Bagley was used to playing back-to-the-basket opponents. That style won’t work now. He’ll have to go up against a whole new monster at the small forward position. From LeBron James to James Johnson, the NBA’s three-position player has faster personnel than what Bagley was used to in college. In the league, he’ll have to guard faster players on the perimeter.
So the big question is whether Bagley can sustain himself defensively?
The modern NBA relies heavily on versatility and creativity at both ends on the floor. Celtics head coach Brad Stevens said it best: “the more versatile, more positionless the better.”
Teams around the association have tried their fair share of lineup changes. One lineup, in particular, could help Marvin’s opportunity at the three.
Used mainly by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2017 playoffs, the “big lineup” places three players who are most comfortably suited to play in the frontcourt. As a result, more mismatch problems arise for the defense because of overall height advantage.
With that said, let’s say the Kings go up against a team that plays that same style on the court. Only then should Bagley step in as a small forward. He’d be on the same playing field as his opponent, both athletically and in size. That scenario makes the most sense should Bagley be asked to play the wing position.
All in all, as I see it, the Kings’ gamble of putting Marvin Bagley at small forward is a low-risk/high-reward proposition. If he’s able to capitalize on mismatches offensively, then he could be considered a long-term option there. If not, then the Kings should play him at his natural, power forward position.
