After two weeks of preseason, it’s time to look on how the 2018 quarterback class is doing.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (1st Overall Pick)
Selecting Baker Mayfield number one overall–one of the cockiest and polarizing players in college football–was a surprise to many, including myself. The “Land” is a wasteland for quarterbacks as numerous rookies with potential all failed in Cleveland.
Believe it or not, Mayfield is no stranger to being an underdog. He walked onto two dominant college football programs–Texas Tech and Oklahoma–and rose up the depth chart. Mayfield proved he is a natural leader and winner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LupLR7cUkbU
Despite Mayfield’s strong showing (both in camp and against the Giants in Week One of the preseason), Tyrod Taylor will be the 29th starting quarterback for these Cleveland Browns. Although Taylor was plagued with inconsistency during his time with the Bills, he is one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the NFL. Taylor also has a very good deep ball and will benefit from having players like Jarvis Landry, Josh Gordon and David Njoku on his side–an arsenal he never had in Buffalo.
Taylor will be the starter not because Mayfield has been a disappointment. It will be because Head Coach Hue Jackson doesn’t trust rookie quarterbacks. Unless Taylor gets injured or massively disappoints–especially if the Browns have another disastrous season–I see Mayfield as the starter in Week One, 2019.
Sam Darnold, New York Jets (3rd Overall Pick)
While Darnold wasn’t necessarily viewed as the most NFL-ready quarterback coming out of college, I think he’s a really good fit with the Jets. For one thing, Darnold’s short-distance accuracy fits in perfectly with the Jets’ West Coast offense. And the Jet’s current status (far from being competitive in the AFC East) will give Darnold plenty of time to develop in Todd Bowles’ offense.
At issue is whether Darnold will step in right away.
Teddy Bridgewater could be the option (he has completed 17 of 23 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns in two preseason games), but the Jets seem geared to the future. That means they could be more than content with Darnold starting Week One.
That’s no knock on Bridgewater, who I believe can compete for a starting job on at least 5 teams–if he really can bounce back from his gruesome injury two years ago. So I think the Jets should trade him for a couple draft picks and, then, be satisfied with Josh McCown at backup.
Yes, at times this preseason, Darnold has looked like the inexperienced rookie he is. But he has also shown poise under pressure. As long as he improves his decision-making, I believe he’ll find success as a starter.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (7th Overall Pick)
Josh Allen has arm strength. That’s why NFL scouts liked him so much. On top of that, Allen is huge–6’5”, 230 pounds. That combo–arm strength and size–makes Allen strikingly similar to Cam Newton’s profile.
But Allen’s portfolio includes two glitches: he struggles with accuracy and has a subpar career 56% completion rate.
I don’t think Allen is particularly close to being starter-caliber, but I do believe he probably has the easiest competition among his 2018 QB peers.
Heading into the preseason, Allen was in a three-man competition for the starting job. Then veteran quarterback AJ Mccarron went down with a shoulder injury and it’s undetermined when he’ll be back to full strength. The other competitor is Nathan Peterman. Peterman has looked solid so far in the preseason, but he’s inexperienced. He also needs to overcome fans’ skepticism. Last year he threw five interceptions in just one half of his first NFL start.
That means things are up in the air regarding who will be the QB pick on Week One. My prediction? Even though Allen is set to start Week Three of the preseason, I like Peterman’s chances to start the regular season.
Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals (10th Overall Pick)
Rosen had a mediocre debut against the Cowboys, but he bounced back against the Saints in Game Two. Despite a slow start, Rosen is clearly the most polished pocket-passer among these rookies. He probably has the highest ceiling, too.
The biggest problem Rosen faces is that plays for the Cardinals, not for the Bills (a team that passed over him to pick Allen instead).
If Rosen played in Buffalo, he’d be the Week One starter, hands down.
I see Rosen in a backup role in the Desert, largely because Arizona brought in NFL journeyman Sam Bradford. Bradford’s main challenge will be staying healthy. As long as he does, Rosen will spend at least half the season learning the ropes.
But if Rosen takes over at midseason, I predict that he’ll be more than ready.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (32nd Overall Pick)
Jackson fell to the last pick of the first round. It was a surprise because he had a better 2017 than 2016 when he won the Heisman at Louisville.
Jackson has struggled so far this preseason, but he’s still the most electric quarterback of the 2018 draft group–well worth the risk at the 32nd pick.
Jackson has his flaws as a passer. But he’ll have time to develop because there’s no need to rush him into the starter’s role.
But there’s a fly in the ointment. Flacco hasn’t developed since winning the Super Bowl five years ago. Still, though he has the experience and capability to maintain his role. And, let’s face it: Jackson will benefit from Flacco’s calm, cool and, yes, sometimes dull nature.
I think it’s best to slow down “the Lamar Jackson hype train.” Be patient with him! The Flacco era will end relatively soon and, then, Lamar Jackson should be ready to compete for that starting job.
