I’m not overly optimistic about Young, Bridges, and Smith. Here’s why.
Every draft comes with its fair share of ¨steals.¨NBA superstars Kawhi Leonard and Damian Lillard were all picked after the lottery. But, of course, there’s another group of picks: “the busts.”
That’s what I’m going to look at today. Let’s focus on three lottery prospects I think are hugely overrated.
Trae Young
Young has a variety of ways to beat you. The most obvious is his jump shot. From takeoff to releasing the ball at its apex, Young’s shot is fluid and reliable. I see no reason for that to end in the NBA.
Young also has above-average ball-handling skills. His handles lead to more open looks for teammates. Simply put, Young can facilitate.
Trae Young (photo, YouTube)
His numbers are impressive, too. Young is the only player in NCAA history to lead the nation in both points and assists per game. As Slate.com’s Nick Green put it: “He has magnetic handles, transcontinental range, and a sociopathic conscience when it comes to shot selection…. The high arching trajectory can’t help viewers of reminiscing about a young Stephen Curry at Davidson.”
But it isn’t all sunshine and rainbows for this former Sooner. His OU usage rate was 37%–way too high. It also raises a question: Are his averages–27.4 points and 8.7 assists per game–valid indicators of NBA potential?
And that’s not to speak of his weakness–defense. At times, Young looked abysmal as players blew by him. If that happened in college, what’s in store in the pros?
It seems to me that Young needs to end up in the right NBA system. He needs to be surrounded by defensive-minded wings with a perennial shot blocker down low. He also needs to be in a space-and-pace coaching system so he can get more opportunities to score from his sweet spot, “downtown.”
Bust Meter: Slight
Miles Bridges
Last season, Bridges decided to withdraw from the NBA draft. It came as a surprise to many because Bridges was projected to be a lottery pick. He stayed at Michigan State because he wanted to win an college championship.
Not only didn’t Bridges win an NCAA championship last year, he didn’t develop much as a player, either.
Yes, he has great athleticism. From running out in transition to cutting backdoor, Bridges has shown the ability to outrun defenders for an easy bucket down low. His skills have led to insane alley-oop plays, like the one he had against Notre Dame.
At 6’6” 198 pounds, though, Bridges’ position in the NBA is uncertain. He could possibly play the two through four, and his career 36.4% from three means he’s a respectable shooter from deep. But the question still remains: What’s his true position? He’s short for a power forward but he could see occasional time there as a small-ball four. Bridge’s athleticism won’t contribute much at shooting guard because he struggles at shot-up shooting. That leaves the small forward position–the most appropriate place for him, largely because he has a decent shot-off-dribble ability and can hit the deep ball.
Still, though, with so many if’s, and’s, and but’s, I see Bridge as a higher-risk lottery pick.
Bust Meter: Moderate
Zhaire Smith
Here’s another undersized athletic collegiate guard who has caught the eye of NBA scouts. Does Wade Baldwin IV and Norman Powell ring a bell? Well, you can add Zhaire Smith to that list. Analysts like Smith as a lottery pick, but here’s why he’s NOT worth that selection.
Courtesy: Zimbio
When an alley-oop or a high flying dunk goes viral, people are glued to the person who made the play. Hype grows exponentially. But athleticism isn’t everything.
Smith averaged 11.3 points and 1.8 rebounds per game at Texas Tech. Those aren’t great numbers and neither is his shooting great. Although Smith shot 45% from three, he made only 1.5 threes a game.
If he’s that non-aggressive in the NBA, then teams will sag whenever Smith’s on offense.
I view Zhaire Smith as a one-trick pony. He doesn’t have the variety of skills and intangibles needed to succeed in today’s NBA.
Bust Meter: Severe
