Here are 11 mid-majors to keep an eye on. I like seven to win this week.
Well, Championship Week wasn’t kind to a number of my early picks. Here’s who went down.
Atlantic 10: Neither RHODE ISLAND nor ST. BONAVENTURE won the A-10. With exceptional discipline and considerable executive, Davidson took the crown.
The good news is that both URI and Bona made the tournament as at-large selections.
America East: VERMONT not winning the American East was probably the biggest shocker of the week. Kudos to UMBC for pulling off an incredible win (at Vermont, no less). UVM now heads to the NIT.
Big West: I thought UC-Irvine was peaking at the right time. It didn’t. UC-Fullerton took the crown.
Conference USA: Yikes! MIDDLE TENNESSEE, which was a heavy favorite to win C-USA, didn’t even make the tournament finals (Southern Miss pulled an earlier round upset). To compound matters, the Committee bypassed MTSU on Selection Sunday. Marshall goes to the NCAAs.
Horizon: I thought NORTHERN KENTUCKY was a lock. Wright State advances instead. UNK goes to the NIT.
Mountain West: NEVADA-RENO has been one of my top mid-major picks all year. But Reno fell flat–I mean really flat–against San Diego State, getting blown out in the MWC finals.
An otherwise strong season saved UNR: it received an NCAA at-large bid.
Sun Belt: I wrote earlier that nobody is talking about LOUISIANA … and they should. Well, they didn’t because UT Arlington & Georgia State were in the tourney finals. GSU advances.
All is not lost, though. In addition to Rhode Island, Bona, and Reno, eight of my early picks will compete this week.
Big Sky: MONTANA
Mid-American: BUFFALO
Missouri Valley: LOYOLA (IL)
Ohio Valley: MURRAY STATE
Southern: UNC GREENSBORO
Summit: SOUTH DAKOTA ST.
WAC: NEW MEXICO STATE
WEST COAST: GONZAGA
That leaves 11 mid-majors on my list to watch.
Now that the brackets have been set, which teams might pull a first-round shocker? Here are my picks.
#4 GONZAGA v. #13 UNCG, Th. Both are my mid-major picks so I win either way. Even though the Zags are the prohibitive favorite, I think UNCG will keep the game close until the end. MY PICK–GU
#7 RHODE ISLAND v. #10 OKLAHOMA, Th. Both URI and OU faltered down the stretch. But URI is a much better team defensively. MY PICK–URI
#7 NEVADA v. #11 TEXAS, Fri. Can Reno rebound from its MWC nightmare? Texas is good medicine for ailing teams. MY PICK–UNR
#11 LOYOLA v. #6 MIAMI, Th. LU (28-5 during the regular season) has three studs–Clayton Custer, Donte Ingram, and Marques Townes–and I don’t like the way up-and-down Miami plays. MY PICK–LU
#11 ST. BONAVENTURE v. #11 UCLA, Tu, play-in game. Bona has been a favorite all season long, but I’m wavering. Mobley is a stud and so is Adams, but you can’t beat good teams unless you guard and stop relying on 30-foot bombs. I hope Bona learned a lesson from the Davidson game. MY PICK–SBU (he gulped)
#12 NEW MEXICO STATE v. #5 CLEMSON, Fri. This is my 12 v. 5 upset special. NMSU went 28-5 and is hungry for an NCAA win. They’ve already beaten two NCAA-bound teams–Miami and Davidson–and I think Clemson will make it three. MY PICK–NMSU
#12 SOUTH DAKOTA STATE v. #5 OHIO STATE, Th. Ok. I’ll go out on a limb and pick a second 12-5 upset. I really like the Jacks and stud Mike Daum, “The Daum-inator.” SDSU could surprise the overachieving Buckeyes. MY PICK–SDSU
#12 MURRAY STATE v. #5 WEST VIRGINIA, Fri. A third 12-5 upset? It could happen…MSU is that good. But the Racers haven’t faced the pressure they’ll see against the best team, by optics, in the country. These Mountaineers play basketball the way it’s supposed to be played. MY PICK–WVU
#13 BUFFALO v. #3 ARIZONA, Th. This is a bad draw for a good UB team. The Wildcats have DeAndre Ayton, a 7-foot-1 freshman who’s averaging 20.3 points and 11.5 rebounds a game. ‘Nuff said. MY PICK–UA
#14 MONTANA v. #3 MICHIGAN, Th. Michigan is relentless and Montana has only faced three big-time programs all year–winning one (Pitt) and losing two (Penn St., Stanford). Michigan should win easily. MY PICK-MICHIGAN
