For USM, a win would cap off a successful year. For FSU, a win would end a bad season on a positive note.
Florida State will face off against Southern Miss in this year’s Independence Bowl (Wednesday, December 27, 1:30 p.m., ESPN).
The bid keeps Florida State’s consecutive-year bowl streak alive at 36 years. Focus now shifts on keeping another FSU streak intact—40 consecutive winning seasons. FSU ended the season 6-6.
FSU’s Bobby Bowden and USM’s Reggie Collier (photo, The Sun Herald)
To do that, FSU will need to beat a familiar foe. The Seminoles and Golden Eagles have met 22 times with FSU holding the edge, 13-8-1. The last match-up took place in 1996 when the ‘Noles won, 54-14.
The outcome could be different this time around. The 8-4 Golden Eagles rank higher than the Seminoles in points scored per game, total yards allowed, and total yards per game. They’re also riding a three-game winning streak.
But those stats didn’t sway odds-makers to USM. The ‘Noles opened -15 with betting now trending -15 to -16.5 (as of December 16).
The reason, no doubt, is competitive contrast. Southern Miss isn’t a Power 5 school and it lost the only two games it played against Power 5 teams—to Kentucky by 7 and to Tennessee by 14. To boot, USM’s wins aren’t impressive. Victories came against teams that finished .500 or less.
Florida State, on the other hand, is battle-tested. Once ranked #1 in the country, FSU took on a schedule that was ranked #1 nationally in schedule strength. The season unraveled after QB Diondre Francois went down with an injury in Game 1.
Ito Smith (photo, USM Athletics from Pierre Aguirre-USA TODAY Sports)
The Seminole’s challenge against USM will be on the defensive side of the ball. Southern Miss runs a spread system filled with plenty of read-options and pre-snap motions.
To win, FSU will need to neutralize the Golden Eagles’ running game, led by senior RB Ito Smith, who ranks 20th in the country with 1,321 rushing yards. He’ll put pressure on the maligned FSU stop troops—ranked 84th nationally in rushing yards allowed.
Smith also does well as a receiver out of the backfield. He’s third on the team in receptions and receiving yards. Florida State linebacker Matthew Thomas and safety A.J. Westbrook must recognize Smith’s location pre-snap, especially in passing situations.
FSU’s secondary will be tested if USM can establish its running game early. USM’s dual-threat quarterback, Kwadra Griggs, doesn’t throw many interceptions (only two on the season) and FSU’s defense has struggled in the past against dual-threat QBs.
Griggs relies on junior receiver Korey Robertson, who leads the team in receptions (72), yards gained (1,070), and touchdowns (11). To counter, FSU will likely use two DBs on Robertson and allow Levonta Taylor and Stanford Samuels to go one-on-one against USM’s other primary receivers, Allenzae Staggers and Quez Watkins.
Derwin James won’t play against USM (photo, Sports Illustrated)
Florida State’s secondary will be short-handed, too–playing without starting safety and team captain, Derwin James. James announced recently that he’ll be turning pro and won’t be playing in the Independence Bowl. Without James, the secondary will need to continue its recent stellar play—seven passes picked off in the last three games, including two returned for touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, USM’s offensive line will face its toughest challenge of the season. The Seminoles have gone up against prolific offenses, including Clemson, Alabama, and Miami.
Prominent for FSU is senior defensive tackle, Derrick Nnadi, and junior defensive end, Josh Sweat. Those two have combined for 21.5 tackles-for-loss this season. Sophomore defensive end, Brian Burns, has racked up 12.0 tackles-for-loss on the year.
All in all, if there’s anything these two teams have in common it’s this—making mistakes, especially in the penalty and turnover departments. Florida State enters the game tied for 108th in turnover margin and 74th in penalties per game. Southern Miss is tied for 68th in turnover margin and 119th in penalties per game.
FINAL OBSERVATION: Even though this is a minor bowl, it’s a meaningful game for both teams. A win over FSU would cap off a successful year for USM. FSU, on the other hand, would like to end a difficult season on a positive note.
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Note: Source statistics are drawn from:
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs, http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/705 http://www.cfbstats.com/2017/team/664/passing/offense/situational.html http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds
