It’s asking way too much for Indy to pull off the road upset against a fired-up Ravens team that smells a playoff berth.
WHAT: Week 16, Game 15 vs. Indianapolis Colts
WHEN: 4:30 p.m. (ET); Saturday, December 23
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium; Baltimore (71,008)
RECORDS: Colts, 3-11; Ravens, 8-6
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Colts lead overall, 8-3; in Baltimore, the teams have split six regular-season meetings and two playoff games
TV: NFL Network; WJZ-TV, Channel 13 (Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, booth; Jamie Erdahl, sidelines)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Stan White, Jarret Johnson)
REFEREE: Tony Corrente
About the Colts
—The Colts franchise was born as the Miami Seahawks of the old All-America Football Conference in the mid-1940s. The team moved to Baltimore and in 1950 became part of the AAFC-NFL merger. The Colts played one season in the NFL before going bankrupt. Following a two-year season-ticket drive, the defunct Dallas Texans were purchased by a Carroll Rosenbloom-led group and moved to Baltimore in 1953. The Colts name was re-applied and the team played in Baltimore until 1983–an additional 31 years for a total of 32 NFL seasons. In March 1984, the franchise moved to Indianapolis. It’s currently playing in its 34th campaign there.
—Between its Baltimore and Indianapolis histories, the Colts have 27-lifetime playoff appearances, tied with the Rams for the sixth-most in league history. In Baltimore, the Colts won eight division crowns and had one wild-card berth, along with three championships (1958, 1959, Super Bowl V). The team lost two other title games (1964, Super Bowl III) and was 1-1 in AFC title games. After the move to Indianapolis, the team won 11 more division titles and had seven wild-card berths. The Colts won Super Bowl XLI over Chicago and lost Super Bowl XLIV to New Orleans. All four of the franchise’s Super Bowls have taken place in Miami–the first two representing Baltimore in the Orange Bowl and the second pair as an Indianapolis team in what is now Hard Rock Stadium.
—The Ravens beat the Colts on each of Indianapolis’ first two visits back to their former city. They came from behind to beat then-rookie quarterback Peyton Manning’s team in 1998, 38-31. The Ravens repeated the feat in 2001, 39-27, capping off the shootout with Rod Woodson’s interception return for a touchdown. The Colts won the 2005 season opener in Baltimore, a Sunday-night 24-7 victory. Two years later they wore out a tired, injury-riddled Ravens, 44-20. A 2006 Divisional playoff game ended with the Colts beating the second-seeded Ravens, 15-6, But the Ravens got revenge in the 2012 wild-card round, 24-9. It was Ray Lewis’ last home game.
—Former Ravens defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano is the Colts’ sixth-year head coach, the 11th since the franchise moved and the 20th in team history. Pagano joined the Ravens in 2008 and was elevated to defensive coordinator in 2011. He is 55-45 as head coach, which includes 12 games he missed in 2012 due to a fight with leukemia. Before this season his .613 win percentage ranked fifth among active NFL head coaches. From 2012-14, the Colts went 33 games without losing two straight–the longest such streak in franchise history.
—Noteworthy assistants on Pagano’s staff include OC and ex-Cleveland head coach Rob Chudzinski. Others are DC and former Ravens linebackers coach Ted Monachino, tight ends coach and ex-Ravens wide receivers coach Jim Hostler, and defensive line coach and former Miami head coach Joe Philbin.
—This is the third straight season that the Colts have missed the playoffs. This year its thanks mostly to the season-long absence of standout quarterback Andrew Luck. The Colts posted 8-8 records the past two years, but are now in a five-game losing streak, the second-longest in the league (Cleveland, 14). Worse yet, the team has lost eight of its last nine games after a 2-3 start. But some of those games have been tightly contested. Indianapolis has lost five games by six or fewer points. The Colts have had nine days off since their last game. Saturday’s game is their last road game of the year.
—Through 14 games this season, Indianapolis ranks 31st in total offense (22nd rushing, 30th passing, 31st scoring at 16.1 points per game), and 30th in total defense (29th vs. rush, 30th vs. pass, 31st scoring, allowing 26.3 points per game). The Colts’ 368 points allowed is bottomed only by Houston (380). The team’s third-down defense is the league’s second-worst at 44% conversions allowed. Indianapolis’ red-zone offense is also ranked 31st.
—The Colts have a modest plus-4 turnover ratio, a category in which Baltimore leads (plus-17). Colts’ quarterbacks have thrown only nine interceptions this year, tied for the league’s third-fewest. The team’s 15 total giveaways are the fourth-fewest. Indianapolis has committed 86 accepted penalties, just five more than the Ravens (in the league’s bottom half), but the Colts’ 20 false starts are tied with Seattle and San Francisco for the league lead. The Colts have five roughing-the-passer calls, tied for the second-most, and eight defensive holding flags.
—The Colts have tended to wear down as games have progressed. They have been outscored by just 11 points in the first half of their games this year, but they have been outscored 91-53 in the third quarter and by a whopping 123-35 in the fourth period. Foes have run 428 times and passed on 474 occasions (including sacks allowed). The Colts, in turn, have 391 rushes and 482 dropbacks.
—Fifth-year tight end Jack Doyle leads the Colts in catches with 71, but he also paces the club in dropped passes with four (STATS, INC.) The Colts as a team have had 20 drops, tied with the Arizona Cardinals for the seventh-most in the league–six more than the Ravens. Indianapolis has had the second-most drops in the AFC South, trailing first-place Jacksonville by two.
—Only four Colts offensive starters have started all 14 games. QB Jacoby Brissett, who took over starting duties from Scott Tolzein in Week Two, isn’t one of them. Brissett has completed 59.6% of his passes with 11 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a season-long passer rating of 81.7. He has seven touchdown passes in his last five road games. However, spotty offensive line play has led to him getting sacked 49 times. The line has allowed 53 sacks overall. Brissett has scored a team-high four of the team’s ten rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging 4.3 yards per carry, which also leads the squad.
—Running back Frank Gore, who’s a 13-year veteran and five-time Pro Bowl pick, is in his third year with the Colts. He’s the only member of the league’s all-time top-ten rushing list still active in the NFL. He’s now ranked fifth (13,858), having passed Jerome Bettis and LaDanian Tomlinson this year. Gore has 793 yards rushing in 2017 (3.6 per carry) and has scored three touchdowns. Gore also has 24 receptions for a nine-yard average per catch. Marlon Mack is his backup. While with San Francisco, Gore played three times against the Ravens, all of which were losses. He gained 110 yards and averaged 5.8 per carry against Baltimore in 2013.
–Even while leading the team in catches, Doyle has had just one 100-yard game and was inactive for an early-season contest against San Francisco. He has been targeted 93 times and has just 22 incompletions. Standout receiver Ty Hilton has caught only 48 of 91 targets, but he’s averaging almost 18 yards per catch and has four touchdowns. He had a nine-catch, 90-yard day the last time he faced the Ravens. Hilton has three games with over 150 receiving yards. Donte Moncreif has 26 catches and two scores, while former Ravens receiver Kamar Aiken has a mere 14 receptions–none since Oct. 29. He has been targeted just five times since then.
—Seventh-year left tackle Anthony Castonzo is the lone veteran presence on an injury- and penalty-ridden offensive line. Center Ryan Kelly was placed on injured reserve this week. Backup Mike Person will replace him. The Colts currently have 16 players on injured reserve, including Kelly and Luck. The guards–first-year left guard Jeremy Vujnovich and right-sider Joe Haeg (second)–are both young. The right tackle–third-year man Denzelle Good–hails from tiny Mars Hill College.
—Indianapolis has slumped in recent years when it comes to player development. Including practice squad and injured-reserve players, the Colts have an astounding 47 players who came to the team as free agents. There are only 21 original draftees still on the club. Only one player, kicker Adam Vinatieri, came to the team before 2011 (he came in 2006). Castonzo is the team’s only first-round draft pick (2011) who’s on Indy’s active roster today.
—Defensively, the Colts’ 3-4 look features a veteran defensive line. Eighth-year nose tackle Al Woods is flanked by two fifth-year players, Margus Hunt and Johnathan Hankins. That trio has combined for four of the team’s total of 23 sacks. They also have 13 tackles for losses and 14 quarterback hits. Inside linebacker Jon Bostic, the team’s leading tackler, just went on injured reserve this week. The second-leading stopper, Antonio Morrison, is still active. The outside linebackers are a pair of former Cleveland Browns, first-round pick Jabaal Sheard and Barkevious Mingo. Sheard has a team-high 5.5 sacks and 13 quarterback hits. Ex-Ravens draftee John Simon has three sacks and 12 quarterback hits. He’s on injured reserve.
—Indianapolis’ secondary is paced by three ex-Ravens–corner Rashaan Melvin (team-high 13 pass breakups) and safety Malik Hooker, who’s now out for the year. Second-year Notre Dame product Matthias Farley (two interceptions, 86 tackles, third on the team) has replaced Hooker. He partners with ninth-year safety Darius Butler. Rookie Kenny Moore II, who’s the corner opposite Melvin, had his first career interception last week against Denver quarterback Trevor Siemian. Moore also has a team-high eight special teams tackles.
—Vinatieri, a three-time Pro Bowl invitee in his 22nd year in the league, has won a league-record 17 AFC Special Teams Player of the Week awards. With 2469 points, he has scored the second-most points in NFL history. He’s not far behind recently-inducted Hall of Famer Morten Andersen (2544). Vinatieri has never missed a field-goal try against six NFL teams, and he’s perfect (12-for-12) against the Ravens. He was 5-for-5 in 2007, which accounted for all the Colts’ points in the Divisional playoff win at Baltimore. This year, he has a team-high 91 points and is 24-for-27 on field goals (misses from 33 and 38 yards). He has also missed two extra points.
—Colts’ rookie punter Rigoberto Sanchez is netting 42.5 yards per punt, third-best in the AFC and fifth-best in the league. He has had only three touchbacks in 77 punts and has one punt blocked. Sanchez has benefited from a punt-coverage unit that is allowing only 4.9 yards per runback (tied for fourth-best in the league). The Colts’ kickoff-coverage unit is allowing 18.8 yards per return, tied with Baltimore for the league’s best mark.
—Principal return specialist Quan Bray has performed most of the runback duties for the Colts, but he’s on injured reserve. Backup running back Mack, a rookie fourth-round pick, is splitting the kick-return role with Josh Ferguson. Second-year receiver Chester Rogers is the new punt returner, but he’s only averaging a little more than three yards per return on six chances so far.
Prediction
The Colts are experiencing a deadly combination of issues. They’re banged up. They’re one of the league’s worst teams even when healthy. They aren’t a deep team. They wear down in the second half, usually making a big-play mistake on one side of the ball or the other.
It’s asking way too much for Indy to pull off the road upset against a fired-up Ravens team that smells a playoff berth.
Besides, Baltimore’s fan base will never forget the Colts’ move–especially on weekends when Indy comes to town.
Ravens 26, Colts 13
