It’s hard to gauge what kind of effort Cincinnati will give on Sunday. But I think the Ravens will have just enough (as they had against the Colts) to nail down a playoff berth.
WHAT: Week 17, Game 16 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. (ET); Sunday, December 31
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium; Baltimore (71,008)
RECORDS: Bengals, 6-9; Ravens, 9-6
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Ravens lead, 22-21; in Baltimore, the Ravens are 14-7 against Cincinnati and have won five of the last seven meetings
TV: WJZ-TV, Channel 13 (Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts, booth; Evan Washburn, sidelines)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Stan White, Jarret Johnson)
REFEREE: Ron Torbert
About the Bengals
—The Bengals will wear white jerseys and black pants for this game, a combination that has yielded a 26-30 record (.464) since 2004–the team’s second-worst record for any color scheme over that span.
—The Bengals were born in 1968 as an American Football League expansion franchise and are concluding their 50th season this week. The Bengals made the playoffs in their first season in the AFC after the merger but lost in the Divisional round at Baltimore, 17-0. The Bengals franchise has appeared in the playoffs 14 times in 49 years, including nine division titles, and four since the AFC North was formed in 2002. They have played in two Super Bowls (XVI, XXIII), losing both to the San Francisco 49ers, but have not won a postseason game since 1990–despite a franchise-record five straight playoff berths (2011-15).
—The Bengals’ upcoming game in Baltimore breaks a string of six straight years that has seen the return match played in Cincinnati. The Ravens have swept the head-to-head series six times (none since 2011) while the Bengals have also recorded six sweeps. There have been nine splits–the tenth if the Bengals win Sunday. Overall, Cincinnati has won six of its last seven meetings with the Ravens and seven of the last nine.
—This game will mark the eighth time the Ravens and Bengals will close the regular season against each other – six of those games have been played in Cincinnati – and the seventh time overall since the NFL mandated (in 2010) that all teams play Week 17 games within their divisions. The Bengals have won five of the previous seven Week 17 games against Baltimore. The current season also marks the second time Cincinnati and Baltimore have both opened and closed the regular season against each other. They also did so in 2012.
—The Bengals have had a pair of three-game losing streaks this year, starting the season with one and posting another until last week when they closed their home schedule with a win over the Detroit Lions. At 6-9, they will post their second straight losing season since winning the AFC North in 2015. Cincinnati is 3-4 in games decided by single-digit margins this year and is 2-5 on the road, winning only at Cleveland and Denver.
—Cincinnati has played teams tough early in games, getting outscored in the first quarter by 13 points (73-60). They outpoint their foes in the second quarter, 101-93. But the fourth quarter has been the Bengals’ downfall. The team has been outscored, 98-61. The Bengals have not only failed to rally from second-half deficits, they’ve not had many opportunities to do so. The team’s 27:06 time-of-possession average is the lowest in the NFL as is their average of 16.3 first downs per game.
—The Bengals have committed 104 accepted penalties this year, the 13th-most in the league and 18 more than Baltimore, the league’s third-least penalized team. Cincinnati has been hampered by overly-physical secondary play; the Bengals’ 18 defensive pass interference penalties are five more than any other team in the league. Five Bengals have seven penalties each and four of them are defensive backs. Tackle Andre Smith, who is on injured reserve, has false-started five times.
—Cincinnati was plagued by five turnovers in its Week 1 shutout loss to the Ravens. The team has gone on to post a minus-9 turnover ratio, the league’s sixth-worst. The Bengals don’t create many turnovers–a mere 13 takeaways, which is tied with Atlanta for second-fewest behind Cleveland’s 11 (including a league-low three fumble recoveries). Cincinnati pass-catchers have also dropped 18 balls, which is around the middle of the league pack and third-most in the AFC North.
—Former Ravens’ defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis is the Bengals’ head coach, even though reports have him resigning after the season. He is in his 15th season at the helm–second in NFL head-coaching seniority behind the Patriots’ Bill Belichick (18). Lewis, who worked in Baltimore from 1996-2001, had taken Cincinnati to the playoffs a franchise-record five straight seasons (2011-15). He’s also the winningest coach in team history (119-103-3, .535 regular season, 0-7 postseason). He is 17-12 against Baltimore.
—After finishing 13th in total offense last season, the Bengals are 32nd and last in that category this year through 15 games (31st rushing, 28th passing, 28th scoring). At 275.3 yards per game, Cincinnati is one of only three teams averaging less than 300 per contest (the other two are Chicago and Indianapolis). The Bengals are ranked 20th in total defense (31st vs. rush, seventh vs. pass, 15th scoring). Cincinnati is allowing 128.5 rushing yards per game–only four more than the bottom-ranked team, the Los Angeles Chargers. Cincinnati is producing only 81.3 rush yards per game on offense, surpassing only Detroit.
–-Seventh-year quarterback Andy Dalton threw a career-low eight interceptions in 2016 and completed 64.7% of his passes, playing to a passer rating of 91.8. He has regressed somewhat this year, completing 60.6% with 22 touchdowns and 12 pickoffs. Against the Ravens he is 6-6 with a career rating of 72.6. Dalton’s 17 career pickoffs against the Ravens – including four in the Week One loss – are his most against any team. But in his last three games at Baltimore, he has thrown five touchdown passes with one pickoff with a 97 passer rating.
—Cincinnati’s ground game is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry with six rushing touchdowns. It is led by controversial rookie Joe Mixon (530 yards, four touchdowns), who has been slowed by an ankle problem and a concussion. Dual-threat Giovani Bernard (406, two) is coming off a big game against Detroit. He had 30 total touches for 168 total yards and a game-clinching touchdown. He has had 96 scrimmage yards per game in his last three games at Baltimore. Jeremy Hill has only 37 rushes this year, gaining barely over 100 yards. He is one of 12 Bengals on injured reserve.
—Standout receiver AJ Green is one of only three offensive players who has started all 15 games. Green hasn’t hurt the Ravens as much recently. He missed the final six weeks of 2016 with a hamstring injury and did not play against Baltimore in either meeting. Green was also held in check in Week One of this year. But in his previous five games against the Ravens, he accumulated 32 catches for about 17 yards per reception and six touchdowns. He had six catches for 81 yards last week against the Lions and leads the team with 73 receptions, eight touchdowns, and a 14-yard average.
—Former New England Patriots receiver Brandon LaFell is second on the Bengals’ catch chart with 50 receptions, a 10.3-yard average, and three touchdowns. Bernard has been deadly out of the backfield with 37 catches, including a 61-yard touchdown. Mixon also has 29 receptions. Third-year tight end Tyler Kroft has 36 catches and five scores, while standout first-round pick Tyler Boyd has 17 receptions and one touchdown.
—The Bengals’ offensive line is a veteran group but is full of problems. The line has almost no push in the running game, has allowed 39 sacks, and is plagued by penalties. Right guard Trey Hopkins, in his second year, is the youngest of the bunch. Hopkins has played well, getting called for just one false start and one hold on the season. Left tackle Cedric Ogbuehi was inactive for last week’s game.
—Defensively, Cincinnati gets a great push from its 4-3 defensive line, which has accumulated 21 of the team’s 40 sacks–the same total as Baltimore’s. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins leads the team with nine sacks and ends Carlos Dunlap (6.5) and Michael Johnson (five) have also created havoc for opposing offensive tackles. For his part, Atkins has 61.5 sacks since 2010, which is the most among NFL defensive tackles. He also has eight tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks in his last six games against the Ravens. Dunlap has 5.5 sacks in six games played at Baltimore.
—At the second (linebacker) level, the Bengals have been hit with a few late-season, ill-timed injuries, losing Nick Vigil for the season and Vontaze Burfict to a shoulder problem in the Detroit game. Carl Lawson has filled in well for Vigil, leading the linebacker corps with 8.5 sacks. The unproven Jordan Evans is listed on the depth chart behind Burfict, with veteran Vincent Rey, who had an interception last week against the Lions, in the middle.
—The Bengals would like to create more turnovers with their secondary. The defensive backfield produced only eight interceptions last year and has just seven through 15 games this year–with one pickoff each for seven different players. Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson are the starting corners. Jackson has allowed completions on just 36% of passes thrown his way–the lowest percentage in the league–but he has been called for four pass-interference penalties. Kirkpatrick has been hit with six such penalties. Safety Shawn Williams incurred a concussion against Detroit last week. He is partnered with George Iloka, one of only two defensive players to have started all 15 games, along with Dunlap.
—Kicker Randy Bullock assumed placekicking duties over the last three games of 2016 by kicking five of six field goals, none longer than 43 yards. He has shown better range this year in a 17-for-19 performance, having missed just one of six kicks from 40 yards and beyond. Bullock has also missed two extra points. Punter Kevin Huber is grossing 47 yards per punt, netting 41, and has just three touchbacks in 80 punts. Huber has had one punt blocked, but has placed 32 punts inside the opponents’ coffin corner.
—Second-year returner Alex Erickson has seen his performance dwindle on kick returns, averaging 27.9 per kick return (second in the league) last year, but only 20 yards per runback in 2017. He is an average-at-best punt returner–averaging seven yards on punts last year and 7.2 per runback this season. Over the last 14 years, Cincinnati has four lost fumbles on punt returns, the lowest figure in the league. The coverage team has allowed nearly ten yards per punt return and 21 on kick runbacks.
Prediction
In early December, the Bengals looked like a team that had quit on allegedly-outgoing head coach Lewis. Cincinnati beat Detroit last week, but the Lions looked like a beaten team.
So it is hard to gauge what kind of effort Cincinnati will give on Sunday. The Ravens are still a flawed team, but with a renewed offense and home field advantage (10-1 in Week 17 home games), they should have just enough (as it was against the Colts) to finally nail down a playoff berth.
Ravens 23, Bengals 20
