Everybody is talking about Brazil, but Germany is my favorite. And Mexico’s roster is the best it has been in recent World Cups.
A few weeks ago I made a first stab at calling how World Cup 2018 might turn out. Now that the World Cup draw is complete, let’s re-evaluate teams based on group selections.
First, here’s how the group selections filled out:
Courtesy: Goal. com
Group A: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Uruguay
Group B: Portugal, Spain, Morocco, Iran
Group C: FRANCE, Australia, Peru, Denmark
Group D: Argentina, Iceland, Croatia, Nigeria
Group E: BRAZIL, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Serbia
Group F: GERMANY, MEXICO, Sweden, Korea Republic
Group G: Belgium, Panama, Tunisia, England
Group H: Poland, Senegal, COLOMBIA, Japan
Now, let’s re-evaluate the teams (in CAPS above) that I see as favorites and contending underdogs.
Favorites
France: The French open the World Cup in one of the easiest groups for the European teams. France will face Australia, Peru, and Denmark in Group C and should finish first. After that, France will either face Croatia or Nigeria from Group D—the group that some consider to be the toughest in the tournament.
But the French national team has a history of off-the-field distractions and injuries. And that hasn’t changed this year. Alleged blackmailing puts Karim Benzema’s participation at risk, while Samuel Umtiti, N’Golo Kante, Antonie Griezmann, and Raphael Varane are currently injured with the rehab timeframe unknown for each player.
Yes, the French have a favorable path to the World Cup final. BUT will France take advantage?
Brazil: The buzz continues about Brazil’s chances to win Russia 2018. I just don’t buy the hype! Talent alone can carry this team to the semifinals, but this soccer group will have to erase Brazil’s legacy as underachievers.
For Brazil, it can’t always boil down to Neymar creating the final pass or shot.
Yes, Brazil is the favorite to win its group by at least six points, but it’s quite possible that Switzerland could create problems. To avoid that from happening, this team will need to use games against Costa Rica and Serbia to fine-tune off-the-ball runs and establish goal-scoring plays.
Germany: The Germans remain my favorite to repeat as World Cup champions—a feat accomplished only twice. Keep an eye on the final goal differential stat when the group stage concludes. Germany should have the highest differential in its group and in the entire tournament.
If the German starters are able to solidify strong leads early in games, younger players will be able to substitute in and gain valuable tournament experience. Joachin Low’s attacking system will continue to find ways to get Thomas Muller shots to extend his goal-scoring record in World Cup history. Manuel Neuer’s rehab continues to be the biggest question mark.
Underdogs
Colombia: According to Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, Colombia sits at 25-1 odds to win the World Cup. Colombia’s group features three winnable games against Poland, Senegal, and Japan. Once Colombia leaves that group, it will need to regroup against either England or Belgium from Group G.
I think the pieces could fall into place for Colombia to knock off the Belgians or English with their attacking dynamic.
Colombia has wingers and strikers capable of creating strong counter-attack opportunities. Falcao continues to play well for Monaco, having scored 14 goals in 13 Ligue 1 games this season. Juan Cuadrado remains one of the elite wingers in the world at Juventus. And James Rodriguez is experiencing a wonderful resurgence in Bayern.
Mexico: Mexico is in one of the most difficult groups in the World Cup. The biggest barrier for this 60-1 shot is Brazil—the team it would have to play in a quarterfinal game.
But I don’t think the so-called “Group of Death” is the nightmare that everyone claims it is. Besides, I think Mexico’s roster is its best in recent World Cup appearances. Mexico is capable of winning against Korea and—pending Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s decision to return from retirement—Sweden as well. The biggest measuring stick for Mexico will be against Germany.
Mexico’s modern soccer history shows it can compete with the best teams in the World Cup. But how will Mexico fare against the best teams in 2018? Time will tell.
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Russia’s 2018 World Cup kicks off with Russia vs Saudi Arabia, June 14, 2018, 11:00 a.m. EST. ¡Viva Mexico!
