Packers-Ravens: Opponent Scouting Report And Game Prediction

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The Ravens haven’t played many close games this year, where defense and kicker Justin Tucker made the difference. This could be that kind of game.


WHAT: Week 11, Game Ten at Green Bay Packers
WHEN: 1 p.m. (ET); Sunday, November 19
WHERE: Lambeau Field; Green Bay, Wisconsin (81,441)
RECORDS: Ravens, 4-5; Packers, 5-4
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Packers lead, 4-1; Packers lead at home, 3-0
TV: WJZ-TV (Channel 13) (Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon, booth; Jenny Dell, sidelines)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Stan White, Justin Forsett)

REFEREE: Jeff Triplette

About the Packers

Green Bay is the third longest-running NFL franchise in existence, trailing only the Bears and Cardinals. The team has been operating since 1921, the league’s second season, and it can claim a record 13 championships (including the pre-Super Bowl era). Green Bay is the only team to win three straight NFL titles and it has done so twice–1929-31, 1965-67. The Packers were winners in Super Bowls I (over Kansas City), II (over Oakland), XXXI (over New England) and XLV (over Pittsburgh), were losers in Super Bowl XXXII (to Denver).

The Packers have snagged a co-NFL-record 32 playoff berths, tied with Dallas and the New York Giants. Green Bay is on a current streak of eight straight postseason appearances, a team-record skein, and the third-longest in NFL history. Green Bay has won a league-record 25 division titles, including eight in the NFC North since it was formed in 2002. That run included four straight division crowns (2011-14).

The Packers have been traditionally tough at their Lambeau Field home, which was named City Stadium when it opened in 1957. It was renamed in 1965 in honor of the team’s first coach, Earl “Curly” Lambeau. Its capacity is currently the league’s fourth-largest. The Ravens have lost all three trips there. The Packers play four of their last six games of 2017 on the road. Three of their next four games are against AFC North teams. Road trips to Pittsburgh and Cleveland are coming within the next four weeks.

Including this season, the Packers have posted a winning home record in 11 straight seasons, even though they have lost their last two at Lambeau. The Pack’s most recent home win, over Chicago in September, was the team’s 220th at Lambeau, the most home victories by any team at one stadium in NFL history. Green Bay is 68-24-1 at home since 2006, second-best in the league over that span. New England is first in that category and Baltimore is third.

Sunday’s game will mark the Packers’ 332nd consecutive sellout at Lambeau. This is the 61st consecutive year of football at the hallowed shrine, the oldest in the NFL. In fact, only two Major League Baseball venues are older–Boston’s Fenway Park (opened in 1912) and Chicago’s Wrigley Field (1914).

The Packers will sport an unusual look this week, wearing throwback uniforms from their 1927-48 era, which feature a navy blue-dominated scheme with faded gold pants and high navy-colored socks. They are 8-4 in those alternate jerseys, including wins in seven of their last nine games.

Mike McCarthy is the 14th head coach in Packers history and is currently in his 12th season on the job. He has an overall record of 129-73-1. His .638 win percentage is third-best among active coaches, trailing only Bill Belichick and Mike Tomlin. McCarthy is one of only two head coaches to win a Super Bowl with his team as the sixth and last playoff seed. Pittsburgh’s Bill Cowher is the other. McCarthy, who turned 54 years old last week, was formerly an OC in San Francisco and also in New Orleans before becoming the Packers’ quarterbacks coach.

Noteworthy assistant coaches on McCarthy’s staff include defensive coordinator Dom Capers, known to many as the father of the zone blitz. Capers was part of Jim Mora’s staff with the Philadelphia/Baltimore Stars of the United States Football League. Winston Moss is the Packers’ linebackers coach. He is a former Seattle Seahawks linebacker, whose playing career ended in 1997 with a spinal injury incurred during a December game at Baltimore’s Memorial Stadium.

Through nine games, Green Bay is tied for 23rd in total offense (19th rushing, 22nd passing, 14th scoring) and 24th in total defense (17th vs. rush, 20th vs. pass, 18th scoring). The Packers have the league’s third-worst red-zone defense–allowing touchdowns on nearly 70% of opponents’ trips inside their 20-yard line–but have the third-best red-zone offense (getting in the end zone almost 69% of the time). Green Bay has scored more than 30 points in a game only twice and has been outscored in the second quarter, 86-40.

Green Bay has a plus-6 turnover ratio, tied for the league’s third-best with Seattle, New England and Philadelphia. They have lost just two fumbles all year, tied for the league low with Miami, Seattle, and Kansas City. Green Bay has forced 15 turnovers, the league’s fifth-most. Green Bay has won the turnover battle in five of the last six games–going plus-8 over that span. They have recovered an NFL-high nine opponents’ fumbles.

The Packers have committed 58 accepted penalties, one more than Baltimore, but have been flagged for offensive holding only four times all season, three fewer than the Ravens. The Packers have been penalized for 467 yards, the league’s fifth-fewest.

Green Bay gets off to good starts in games. It is the only team in the league with five opening-drive touchdowns in 2017. The team has 37 opening-drive points this year, tied with Washington for the NFL high. Its 216 first-possession points since 2013 is a league-high and the team’s 34.2 touchdown percentage on the first drive is also the best in the NFL. The Packers have 13 red-zone passing touchdowns this year, the league’s fourth-most.

In the absence of injured starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers (collarbone) – one of nine Packers on the IR — Green Bay will start 2015 fifth-round pick Brett Hundley (UCLA), who has played in four games (three starts) since Rodgers got hurt. After a three-game losing streak, Hundley picked up his first win last week over Chicago, hitting nine different receivers and completing 18 of 25 passes with a touchdown and a 110 passer rating. His fourth-quarter rating is a remarkable 158.3. Since taking over for Rodgers, Hundley has thrown two touchdown passes with four interceptions and has been sacked 11 times. His overall passer rating is 69.

The Packers’ leading rusher, Aaron Jones, is averaging 5.3 yards per carry, but will miss this game with a knee injury. Ty Montgomery, a converted tight end who has rib problems, is expected to play. Montgomery has one more carry than Jones but is averaging only 3.8 yards per carry. Montgomery and Jones each have three rushing touchdowns. Montgomery’s longest carry is a career-high 37 yards. Backup Jamaal Williams had a career-high 67 yards against the Bears. Green Bay is averaging 4.5 yards per carry as a team with nine rushing touchdowns; Hundley is averaging over eight yards per attempt.

Through the air, receivers Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson have scored six touchdowns apiece and are averaging over 11 yards per catch. They are first and third on the team in receptions, with veteran Randall Cobb second. In all, five players have 23 or more catches, including Montgomery, who has 23 coming out of the backfield. The main downfield threat is Geronimo Allison, who has caught just 11 passes, but is averaging almost 16 yards per reception. Nelson needs just one catch to pass James Lofton for third on the Pack’s all-time list, trailing only Donald Driver and Sterling Sharpe.

The Packers’ banged-up offensive line has allowed 30 sacks, thanks in part to a knee injury incurred by RT Bryan Bulaga. LT David Bakhtiari recently returned from an ailment, but guards Lane Taylor and Justin McCray are dealing with ankle troubles. Taylor is the starting left guard and McCray has been moved to right tackle. Former New Orleans Saints’ Pro Bowl right guard Jahri Evans now starts for the Packers. Center Corey Linsley is a fourth-year player from Ohio State.

The Packers’ three-man defensive line is mostly young, but it’s anchored by sixth-year defensive tackle Mike Daniels. Next to him are a pair of second-year players–nose tackle Kenny Clark and DE Dean Lowry. Former Southern California linebacker Nick Perry had six tackles and three sacks last week. He leads the team with seven sacks. Perry’s three-sack game was the first for a Packer since AJ Hawk did it at Baltimore in 2013.

Perry’s opposite number, Clay Matthews, a fellow USC alum, has 75 career sacks and has been named to six Pro Bowls as well as the All-Pro team. Matthews’ sack total is a Green Bay franchise record, having edged past Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. The inside linebacker spots are manned by second-year player Blake Martinez (team-high 75 tackles, 55 solos, tied for third-most in NFC) and three-year veteran Jake Ryan.

The Packers are very deep in the secondary, listing 11 players on their depth chart between the corner and safety positions. Free safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (21 tackles, INT in last three home games) is in his fourth season out of Alabama, while his partner, strong safety Morgan Burnett, is a Georgia Tech product playing in his eighth NFL season. The starting cornerbacks are Davon House (23 tackles, sack, INT in last three games) and Damarious Randall, The latter has three of the team’s six interceptions, running one of them back 21 yards for a touchdown. Cornerback Kevin King leads the team with seven of the team’s 53 pass breakups.

Second-year player Trevor Davis (California) is the return specialist. He is averaging 9.6 yards on 13 punt returns but has called for ten fair catches. On kickoffs, Davis is averaging almost 23 yards per return. The Pack’s punt-coverage team is one of the NFL’s best, having allowed just 4.2 yards per runback (second only to San Francisco’s 2.5), and the kick-coverage unit has allowed 22.9 per runback.

Justin Vogel, a rookie from Miami (Fla.), is the Packers’ punter who has benefitted from the good coverage unit, grossing 45.1 yards per punt and netting 43.5. What has also helped is that in 39 punts this year he does not have a single touchback. Eleventh-year kicker Mason Crosby has hit 11 of 14 field goal tries, but he has missed two extra points. Two of his field-goal misses have come in the 30-39-yard range. He has a club-record 1321 points.

Prediction

For Ravens fans, this could be one of the most nerve-wracking games of the year. Baltimore is getting healthier, while Green Bay is sinking in a morass of injuries.

The Ravens haven’t played many close games this year–where defense and kicker Justin Tucker could have made the difference–but this could be that kind of game. That result could turn Baltimore’s inconsistent season in one direction or the other.

Ravens 17, Packers 16

About Joe Platania

Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.



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