My picks don’t necessarily mean that these players will perform consistently this way for the rest of the season. My focus is week-to-week.
Much like Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate and Adam Rank’s Like/Dislike, I’m starting a new series called “Sleepers and Busts.” Each week I’ll name players that I think will produce unexpectedly good numbers. I’ll also identify players that think will have a down week.
Quarterbacks
Courtesy: Cincy Jungle
Sleeper: Andy Dalton, Cincinnati. I know. He’s had a rough season so far. It’s never a good thing when you’re turning the ball over more than you’re throwing touchdowns or when you’re averaging fewer points per game than the second-string QB for the Indianapolis Colts. However, there’s reason to believe that Dalton will have a big comeback this week. He’s facing a Colts’ secondary that has allowed the second-most yards to a QB this year. Plus, the Colts lost their star free safety last week to a torn ACL. Mediocre Darious Butler will play instead. So I just don’t see this being a good day for the Colts’ defense. I say Dalton will tear them apart and have his second 25+ point game of the season.
Bust: Deshaun Watson, Houston. Watson is on fire this year. Of that, there’s no doubt. He has averaged 28 points over the last 4 games and is coming off of a bye week, which can only be a good thing. His crazy 2017 season began on the bench, but his on-the-field performance is now putting him in the MVP conversation. I predict he’ll have a solid NFL career. I just don’t think Watson will have a good Week 8. Here’s why. While “The Legion of Boom” may not be as intimidating as they once were, they still can boast about three things: 1) the best free safety in the game, Earl Thomas; 2) arguably the best cornerback in the game, Richard Sherman; and 3) probably the most frightening strong safety ever to play in the NFL, Kam Chancellor. The Seattle D has allowed just QBs just 8 ppg over the last three contests. And while Watson’s start to the year has been impressive, he didn’t do well the last time he played an elite secondary like the Legion’s. He had his worst game of the season against the Jaguars (60.4 QBR). I predict Watson will have a long day against the Seahawks.
Running Backs
Courtesy: FanRag Sports
Sleeper: Kareem Hunt, KC. Yes, Kareem Hunt is averaging almost 20 points per game. So you’re probably wondering why he’s listed as a sleeper. One reason is that he’ll be facing the toughest D-line in the NFL. Denver has allowed just 3 yards-per-carry (by far the least in the NFL; and they’ve allowed only 71 yards per game to RBs (the second least in the NFL). What’s more, the Broncos haven’t given up a single rushing TD this season. So, you see, there are reasons why some fantasy football analysts are ranking Hunt outside of the top 10 this week. But that’s not how I see it. I’m keeping Hunt inside my top 3 this week. Here’s why. The Denver run defense has allowed 112 yards per game over their last two contests. Though that’s a small sample size, it can be explained by two key losses at LB, namely, Corey Nelson and Brandon Marshall. Even if Marshall is able to play through the injury, he won’t be 100%. Lock in Hunt as a strong RB1 in Week 8.
Bust: Ezekiel Elliot, Dallas: Assuming that Zeke plays on Sunday, I predict a sub-par game from a player who has otherwise looked impressive this year. After a near 40-point outing against the 49ers, many believe that Zeke will continue his hot streak in Week 8. Before you write off Zeke as a top RB1, though, it’s important to look at who he’s up against, namely, the Washington Redskins. The ‘Skins have been solid against the run this year. Opposing RBs have just one 100-yard game and scored only three rushing TDs. That’s why I think the Cowboys will pass more than run in this game. There’s another reason, too: the Josh Norman-less Redskins have struggled against the pass. In a game that could very well be a shoot-out between Cousins and Prescott, I don’t see Zeke getting usage he’s used to. That’s why I think he’ll put up mid-RB2 numbers.
Wide Receiver
Courtesy: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Sleeper: Pierre Garçon, SF. Garçon has pulled in an average of 5.5 receptions per game this season–highest on the 49ers receiving squad. Though he has yet to find the end zone, Garcon has historically been a reliable red zone target. Conversely, the weak Eagles secondary gave up over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in the air last week. That’s why I predict a good week for the 49ers’ #1 target. Count on Garçon as a high-end WR2.
Bust: TY Hilton, Indy. TY is a crazy-talented receiver and a solid WR1 … when Andrew Luck is in the huddle. With Luck injured, though, TY is a risky play. Want proof? He has scored fewer than five points in five outings this year. Granted, Jacoby Brissett isn’t bad, but…. TY has gotten most of his points from big plays and I don’t see big plays likely against a Cincinnati secondary that’s better than many people think. The Bengals have given up the fewest yards and the second fewest touchdowns to WRs this year. Put TY down as a flex play IF you’re desperate.
