Trail Blazers have the talent to make a run at the playoffs. The big question is whether Terry Stotts has the ability to get the most out of this team.
Having previously acknowledged my interest and bias toward the Blazers, let me also toot my horn about previous predictions. Nearly three years ago I wrote that the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons would be significant to the franchise and would bring considerable success. (See my past blogs here.)
I outperformed Las Vegas oddsmakers, NBA sports analysts, and beat reporters.
For fun, I took a stab at predicting a few games in advance, describing the scores and player performance. Those predictions hit close to the mark. While everyone else was hedging, I was one of the first to say–outright–that LaMarcus Aldridge would leave Portland and would be unhappy in (and possibly out of) San Antonio within two years.
But as Vegas disclaimers always say, past results don’t necessarily result in future successes. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the ’17-18 Trail Blazers. We’ll start by examining the numbers for two rookies.
PORTLAND, OR – JUNE 26: Newly drafted Portland Trail Blazer players are introduced to the media June 26, 2017 at the Trail Blazer Practice Facility in Portland, Oregon. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images)
Caleb Swanigan: IS=3, S=5 and P=8 with a LN of 3. In a nutshell, and at his best, the numbers suggest a strong work ethic, desire for success, and creative ability to adjust to the situation at hand. Paul Allen is likely to love this guy. He should play well with C. J. McCollum. If he plays, he will produce, even as a rookie. The big question is this: Will Coach Terry Stotts overcome his fear of rookies?
Zach Collins: IS=5, S=7, P=7 and LN=2(11). The numbers suggest that Collins will be quick, introspective more than some may realize, and studious. He has a sense of success, a numerical affinity with GM Neil Olshey. With time, he could tickle the funny bone of Damian Lillard and play intuitively well with C.J. Hard work and talent gets him into the mix much sooner than expected.
Another one of the new guys, by trade, is Jusuf Nurkic (AY=6, IY-6 and OY=9 with Ln=1). Nurkic fits in with the Blazers “dream for success.” He seeks to perfect his craft, plays emotionally, and can get on a crusade. I think Nurkic proves to be a steal of a trade. He’ll have a big season this year and, very likely, will have an even bigger year next season.
Courtesy: The Source
Last year, I picked C. J. McCollum as my player of the future in his rookie year. I think by the end of this season, and into the next, he’ll likely be more productive than Damian Lillard. Last year I also saw Pat Connaughton as the steal of the NBA Draft. I felt his development would be slow, but that (over time) his athleticism and work ethic would get him important playing time. This season should be telling.
In summation, the numbers tell me that the Portland organization will benefit from freedom of limitation and thrive with flexibility–a characteristic of the number 5. Coach Stotts has the 5’s, but he has also shown unexpected rigidity. Stotts has a morbid fear of using rookies (Dame being an exception). Portland has the tendency to waste players on the bench and, then, send them off to play for other teams. Everyone knows Stotts has talent up the wazoo, but will he use it?
The number 9 is one of perfection and for dreams coming true. But that number must be treated with realism along with hope. It can mean developing potential and allowing each member to feel like a wanted contributor. The numbers tell me that Stotts must move beyond strict adherence to an 8- or 9-man rotation, consider all the talent he has, and then use that talent in as many ways as possible.
If Stotts clings to established ways, look for a 45-to-47 win season … and maybe the playoffs. If he uses more of his players–and at times when called for–then the Trail Blazers can win 55-57 games and get to the second round of the playoffs.
Bottom Line: Elite coaches win big. Terry Stotts has been at it for nine years. His record is 338-355. If he doesn’t do really well this year and next, he may prove to be your basic 42-40 kind of coach.
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Go to my blog for more analysis of the Trail Blazers, including portraits of the entire organization and personnel.
