Upsets make college football great. This week I’ll focus on one potential surprise.
College football teams will be kicking off their seasons–starting this Saturday (Aug. 26th) and running through Labor Day (Sept. 4). For Power 5 conference teams the first few weeks is about survival. It’s about getting through the non-conference schedule so that you can set the table for the conference season.
Let’s face it, though: non-conference games can cause a great deal of stress. Big schools are in no-win situations when they play against minnows.
Drop one of these games and it can ruin your season … before it really gets started.
Upsets are what makes college football great, though. And, after looking at matchups for Week 1, I found a game that should make one Big Ten team worry.
GAME: Wyoming (MWC-M) vs. Iowa (BIG TEN-W)
SITE: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
DATE: September 2, 2017
TIME: NOON
LINE: Wyoming +12.5
On paper, this game seems like a walk in the park for the Hawkeyes. They have a Mountain West team traveling to the Midwest for a Noon kick-off. The Hawkeyes have home field advantage and their fans will be all psyched up for this opening game of the season. But if you take a deeper look into this match-up, it screams UPSET!!!
About the Cowboys
The Cowboys come into this game full of confidence after winning the Mountain West’s Mountain Division last year. They went 9-4 overall and 6-2 in an underrated conference.
Josh Allen, QB, WYO (photo, Newsday)
The Cowboys return Josh Allen at QB, a young man who’s probably the best quarterback you’ve never heard of. Pro scouts feel he’s good enough to be the first quarterback taken in the draft next year. Allen threw for over 3000 yards and 28 touchdowns last season. He added over 700 yards rushing and 7 more TDs.
Wyoming graduated their leading rusher and top two receivers, but they are being replaced by capable athletes in running back Nico Evans and wide out C.J Johnson.
On the defensive side of the ball, Wyoming returns safeties Andrew Winged and Marcus Epps. These two young men will anchor a defense that’s not afraid to be physical at the point of attack. They may not have the same talent in the trenches as does Iowa (the Hawks will be strong on both lines), but what they lack in talent they’ll make up for in effort.
Why This Game?
When looking for a potential upset I try to find major match-ups that favor the underdog. I think there’s potential for a perfect storm in this game.
Iowa will have some success running the football against Wyoming’s front seven with star back Akrum Wadley. I’ll give you that. However, Iowa’s weakness on defense plays right into Wyoming’s biggest strength, though. Iowa has questions to answer in their secondary.
Kirk Ferentz, Iowa head coach (photo, Larry Brown Sports)
Allen, whom I believe is a Heisman dark horse, will have the chance to carve up the secondary and put up huge numbers. Iowa, on the other, isn’t settled at the quarterback position. There’s a two-man race between junior Tyler Weigers and sophomore Nathan Stanley. The fact that Iowa’s Coach Ferentz has not picked a starter should tell you all you need to know.
Ferentz is a great coach and he’ll have his team ready to play. I’m just not sure the Hawks realize Wyoming is not your ordinary MWC team–coming to collect a paycheck and going home.
The timing of this game also makes me lean towards an upset. If this game had been played in mid-October (after Iowa had had a chance to figure things out) I would take the Hawkeyes to win fairly comfortably. But that’s not the case. The Cowboys are catching the Hawkeyes at the perfect time.
Prediction
The Cowboys are getting 12.5 points in this game. I will take the points.
Oh, and by the way, I won’t even need the points. Josh Allen will show on a national stage that he’s the real deal.
Make it Wyoming 34, Iowa 31.
