Storyline: Upsets? Sure! In The Wizard of Oz it was Lions, Tigers, and Bears. In 2017 I like Jackrabbits, Seahawks, Eagles, and (big gulp) Norse. Oh, my!
If the first night of the NIT is any indication then the answer is a resounding yes! Mid-major road dogs reigned supreme Tuesday night in the 1-8 seed tournament.
In the NIT, 8-seed CSU Bakersfield stunned 1-seed California (photo, Inside NU)
6-seed Richmond (A10) won at 3-seed Alabama (SEC), 71-64.
6-seed Boise State (Mountain West) beat 3-seed Utah (PSC-12) in Salt Lake City, 73-68.
7-seed Oakland (Horizon) traveled to South Carolina and thumped 2-seed Clemson (ACC), 74-69.
8-seed and D-1 newcomer Cal-Bakersfield (WAC and the team I told you about last week) stormed to a 44-19 halftime lead at Cal (PAC-12) and then held on to win, 73-66.
NIT road warriors continued the pattern Wednesday night:
6-seed UT Arlington (Sun Belt) stunned 3-seed BYU (WCC) in Provo, 105-89.
7-seed Belmont (Ohio Valley) won at 2-seed Georgia (SEC), 78-79.
7-seed Akron (MAC) traveled to Houston and beat the 2-seed Cougars (AAC), 78-75.
Murray State’s Popeye Jones on his miss (1990) against 1-seed Michigan State.
So is this the year a 16-seed finally beats a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament? Nate Silver of prescient FiveThirtyEight believes it should have happened already. He bases that assessment on statistical analysis and computer modeling.
Indeed, 16-seeds have come close seven times–four times against Big Ten foes. The closest upset was Murray State’s OT loss to Michigan State in the ’90 tournament. The legendary Popeye Jones, who had dropped in 37 points that day, missed a shot that would have won it for the Racers.
Silver predicts a 16-over-1 upset is likely to happen in the next few years. Will it happen this year? That’s the big question. It’s a dicey one, too. Put your eggs in the upset basket and you lose a favorite going forward if the underdog falls. It’s your choice: be a hero or end up a goat.
But here’s the thing. The broad distribution of talent means “On Any Given Day” is very real. 2-seed Michigan State experienced it last year, losing in the Round of 64 to the very athletic 15-seed, Middle Tennessee.
Here’s how I see things going on Thursday and Friday for the top and bottom seeds. (Note: Point spreads are courtesy of ESPN, as of 1 p.m. Eastern, March 15).
WEST REGION
Thursday
South Dakota State’s Mike Daum (24) is a major talent. (photo, SB Nation)
1-seed Gonzaga v. 16-seed South Dakota State (GU -22.5): UPSET WATCH. I really think this could be the upset for which we have been waiting. If so, it will be the upset mother of all time. As I wrote last week I like SDSU’s inside-out game with Mike Daum and Mike Orris. And I also think GU is ripe for the taking. Even though this is arguably Mark Few’s best team, the Bulldogs aren’t challenged in the WCC. SDSU isn’t a big-time team, but they play hungry. Swallow hard on this match-up. Take the points. Go Jackrabbits!
2-seed Arizona v. 15-seed North Dakota (AZ -17). Wildcats win.
3-seed Florida State v. 14-seed Florida Gulf Coast (FSU -12): Last week I picked FGCU as one of five mid-majors to avoid in this year’s tournament. Most of the nation will be rooting for FGCU, a sentimental choice from the Eagles’ memorable run a few years ago. My choice? I pick FSU to cover.
4-seed West Virginia v. 13-seed Bucknell (WVU -14): Go with the Mountaineers, even though WVU didn’t look like ‘Press Virginia’ in the Big 12 semi-final v. Kansas State or the final versus Iowa State. I don’t think this game will be a repeat of last year’s first round upset by SF Austin. No upset. (Truth-telling: I’m a WVU graduate.)
5-seed Notre Dame v. 12-seed Princeton (ND -6.5). Last week I picked Princeton as a mid-major to watch, but this is a bad match-up for the Tigers. ND is hard to turnover and the Irish have too much talent for Princeton to overcome. Vegas thinks this game will be close. I say give the points.
MIDWEST REGION
Thursday
Courtesy: Twitter
4-seed Purdue v. 13-seed Vermont (PU -9): UPSET WATCH. Yeah, I know Purdue has giants up front and also has capable guard play, but…. This game is HUGE for the Catamounts. The school is thirsty for a big win and the narrow line says that Vegas understands UVM won’t be a pushover. The Catamounts were another team on my mid-major watch list. Could this be a repeat of UVM’s tournament win over Syracuse in ’05? Don’t bet against it.
5-seed Iowa State v. 12-seed Nevada (ISU -6): UPSET WATCH. Only my heart is keeping me from calling this game for Reno (I’m an ISU graduate). ISU has great talent, but so does Nevada. This could be the 5-12 upset of the day. Take a good, long look at this one.
Friday
1-seed Kansas v. TBD. Being a Jayhawks basketball fan probably means you see a psychologist for chronic depression. KU always disappoints in The Big Dance, but it won’t happen in Round One this year. But have your pills handy when the inevitable happens in the Round of 32 or The Sweet Sixteen.
2-seed Louisville v. 15-seed Jacksonville St. (UL -20). Give the Gamecocks credit: they’ve moved up in class and are competitive, too. But this team is simply no match for the Cards. JSU is one of my mid-majors to avoid and I wouldn’t pick JSU to beat any of the high seeds.
3-seed Oregon v. 14-seed Iona. (UO -15) Injuries have hurt Oregon’s chances, but they have all they’ll need to beat the Gaels (another one of my mid-majors to avoid). Ducks should cover the spread.
EAST REGION
Thursday
1-seed Villanova v. 16-seed Mt. St. Mary’s (VU -27). MSM was on my avoid list. Go with VU.
Chris Flemmings, UNCW (photo, The Dub Hub – Wilmington Star News)
4-seed Florida v. 13-seed East Tennessee State (UFL -10). ETSU is on that list, too. I don’t like the way the Bucs play. Go with the favorite.
5-seed Virginia v. 12-seed UNC Wilmington (UVA -7.5). UPSET WATCH. Last week I picked UNCW as my top mid-major bracket buster. This is a good match for the Seahawks, too, The Cavaliers aren’t playing well offensively. I believe UNCW will win if it can take the lead and put pressure on UVA to score. This match-up may be the best upset bet of the day.
Friday
2-seed Duke v. 15-seed Troy (Duke -19). Sorry, all of you Duke haters: the Blue Devils are playing their best at just the right time of the year. That’s not good for any team, and it’s the worst possible news for a seriously undermanned Troy. Give the points.
3-seed Baylor v. 14-seed New Mexico State (BU -12.5): UPSET WATCH. Something has happened to Baylor. This isn’t the same team that steamrolled to wins earlier in the year on its way to grabbing the #1 spot in the polls. NMSU plays in the weak WAC, but it’s the premier team in that league. The Aggies looked fried in the first half of the WAC championship game, but came back like gangbusters to win against a very tired CSU Bakersfield team (fresh off a 4-OT win the night before). BU won’t be tired, but….Think about taking the Aggies in what would be a major upset.
SOUTH REGION
Thursday
Keon Johnson, Winthrop (photo, WRHI)
4-seed Butler v. 13-seed Winthrop (BU -11) UPSET WATCH. Am I crazy? Sure, but still… WU has a high-powered offense. That’s why in last week’s article I picked the Eagles as my #3-ranked mid-major to watch. Keon Johnson is a load. If he scores 30+ WU will win … or, at the very least,it will cover the spread. Butler doesn’t always play as well against lesser teams as it does against big-time foes. BU lost to Indiana State, then beat #1 Villanova twice. I’ll be watching this game.
5-seed Minnesota v. 12-seed Middle Tennessee (MTSU -1:): UPSET WATCH. I’ve seen both teams play this season and I just don’t think UM has the athletes to stay with the Blue Raiders, especially now that Akeem Springs is out for the year. MTSU is on the path that Gonzaga and Butler have walked recently—migrating from mid-major to major. I see this as yet another 5-12 upset. What’s the upset here? It’s a Gopher win.
Friday
1-seed UNC v. 16-seed Texas Southern (UNC -27). Never take a Mike Davis-coached team lightly. Remember last year when the Tigers rolled into East Lansing and stunned Michigan State? But beating UNC in the first round of the tournament is a gigantic order. I might be persuaded to take the 27 points, but I wouldn’t bet on a straight-up win. Still, though, this game is worth keeping an eye on, especially if TSU is close at the half.
Northern Kentucky’s Carson Williams (photo, NKU Athletics)
2-seed Kentucky v. 15-seed Northern Kentucky (UK -20): UPSET WATCH. I’m kidding, right? No. NKU is for real. This former D2 powerhouse has made a fast transition to D1 basketball. Credit former NKU president Jim Votruba for transacting a “no football for a basketball upgrade.” That move has paid big dividends. You can imagine what it would mean for NKU fans to beat the state flagship university. Eastern Kentucky came close two years ago in football. Perhaps NKU will get it done this year in basketball. At the very least I see the Norse hanging tight for 20 minutes. I’m tempted to roll the dice on this one and take NKU. I’d certainly take the points.
3-seed UCLA v. 14-seed Kent State (UCLA -18). Losing to Oregon in the PAC-12 tournament took some luster from this team, but I still think the Bruins have more than enough to beat the upstart Golden Flashes.
What Are The Upset Odds?
For comparative purpose, let’s use odds-to-win percentages as calculated by CBS Sports for the 20 bottom-seeded teams (that is, teams seeded #12 to #16). Teams printed in bold are squads that I think have a shot. (For these and odds-to-win percentages as calculated by other services, go to The New York Times article, “NCAA Brackets: Underdogs, Top Favorites, and the Wisdom of the Crowd.”
Middle Tennessee, 44%
UNC Wilmington, 22%
Nevada 21%
East Tennessee, 16%
Florida Gulf Coast, 15%
Princeton, 14%
Florida Gulf Coast, 14%
Vermont, 11%
Bucknell, 9%
Winthrop, New Mexico State, 7%
Iona, 6%
Kent State, 3%
Jacksonville St, Northern Kentucky, North Dakota, Troy, South Dakota St., Texas Southern, 1%
Mount St. Mary’s, NC Central or UC Davis, ,1%
Enjoy!
