Storyline: What’s the best thing about March Madness? It’s mid-major teams that shock the world!
Mercer ousts Duke (photo, USA Today)
Oh, the contrast between the College Football Playoffs and The Big Dance! It’s the difference between “Who’s In?” and “Who’ll Win?” I prefer the latter. That’s why I always look forward to the NCAA Men’s Division 1 Tournament.
Upsets are the reason I always pay attention to mid-major tournaments, the spawning ground for NCAA bracket busters. What comes out of those tournaments often leads to shocking results.
Mercer (then from the Atlantic Sun) stunned Duke (2014).
Vermont (America East) shocked Syracuse (2005).
George Mason (Colonial) made an improbable run to The Final Four (2006).
What’s A Mid-Major?
Sometimes mid-majors graduate to the big time. Butler is one example. Gonzaga is another. And that’s what makes college basketball so confusing these days.
Butler, once a mid-major team, migrated from a mid-major conference (Horizon) to a major conference (Big East). Today, Butler is without question a major team. On the other hand, there’s Gonzaga. It’s a major team that plays (and dominates) a mid-major conference (West Coast).
Fairfield is a legitimate mid-major (photo, FairfieldStags.com)
With movement and arrangements like these it isn’t easy to categorize “mid-major” these days. For me, “mid-major” means schools that aren’t “big-time” in basketball, like Fairfield. That’s what makes these teams “the David’s” of college basketball.
But there’s a gray area. Take four examples: St. Mary’s (West Coast), Middle Tennessee (Conference USA), Dayton (Atlantic 10), and Wichita State (Missouri Valley). Is anybody really surprised when any of those teams–presumably mid-majors–knocks off a major school? I’m not. They’re all big-time programs in mid-major leagues.
For reference, the leagues I think are clearly mid-major in stature include Atlantic Sun, America East, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, Mid-American, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, SWAC, Southland, Summit, and Western Athletic.
But, heck, that’s just me talking. I know others wouldn’t agree with my classification. For comparative reference (and a different take), College Insider offers power rankings of what it considers to be mid-majors schools. The most recent analysis (March 6) can be found here.
The Sad Case of Monmouth
Siena tops Monmouth in MAAC tourney (photo, Asbury Park Press)
But no matter what system you use it’s never easy to predict who’ll be a bracket buster come NCAA tournament time. Pre-tournament favorites sometimes don’t make the field. Monmouth (MAAC) (ranked 7th in CI’s 3/6 rankings) is a great, but sad, example.
“Monmouth ready to avenge last year’s NCAA tournament snub” read a SI headline just a few weeks ago (2/21/17). Bypassed by the NCAA Selection Committee last year as an at-large team, Monmouth would make up for it this season … or so the thinking went. It was for good reason, too. The Hawks played well early on, losing in OT to South Carolina, almost beating Memphis, and knocking off Princeton. The Hawks had a 17-game conference winning streak going into the MAAC tournament.
Then “it” happened…again: Monmouth lost in the conference tourney. This year it was to Siena. Last year it was to Iona. It looks like Monmouth will be NIT-bound yet again.
The Upside-Down Conference
Shocking, yes, but playing yourself out of the Big Dance happens all the time and sometimes it happens multiple times, in the same year, and in the same conference. That can turn things upside-down, just as it did this year in the Horizon League.
The top teams–Oakland and Valparaiso (identical records, 24-8, 12-4)–were knocked out of the conference tournament on the very same day. Neither team even made it to the conference semis.
Courtesy: SB Nation
Who’ll get the league’s automatic NCAA bid? It’s Northern Kentucky (24-10). NKU was a powerhouse in Division II basketball (13 NCAA tournament appearances, playing in the Great Lakes Valley Conference). But the Norse have been a Division 1 team for only five years. With aspirations, the NKU quickly migrated from the lower-tier Atlantic Sun to the Horizon League. This is the very first year that NKU was eligible to participate in the Division 1 tournament…and they won the league. Incredible!
But as good as is NKU’s story, it would have paled in comparison to the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee had the Panthers won the league’s tournament.
The Panthers haven’t been in the national spotlight since the time Bruce Pearl was head coach. Nearly fifteen years ago (2003) UWM lost by one point to Notre Dame in the first round of the tournament.
What distinguishes Milwaukee this year is–get this–LOSING. During a 23-loss regular season the Panthers won only four conference games and went 0-9 in February.
But every team’s dream is to get hot come tournament time. The Panthers did. They steamed to the championship game. If UWM had beaten NKU, then the Panthers would have entered March Madness with the most losses of any team in NCAA tournament history.
Which Teams Could Shock The World This Year?
Read my picks for 8 mid-majors to watch and 5 mid-majors to avoid.
