Storyline: Upsets are in the DNA of the NCAA Tournament. Here are the teams I think could spring a surprise or two this year.
If you’re like me, then you love watching mid-major teams take on the Big Boys of college basketball.
I’ve been watching mid-majors all season and I’m especially impressed with eight teams. All but one won its conference tournament. With luck, the other (Illinois State) will get an at-large slot come Sunday.
Here are my picks.
Chris Flemmings, UNCW (photo, The Dub Hub – Wilmington Star News)
#1, North Carolina, Wilmington (Colonial): I’ve liked the Seahawks all season long–from the time I saw them overcome a last-second shot from St. Bonaventure that put that game into OT. UNCW came back and won. Wlmington has four starters who score in double figures. The team shoots well (from the field and line) and isn’t turnover prone. If a major team takes a win for granted, then Wilmington will win a first-round game. They might win regardless.
#2, Illinois State (Missouri Valley): I’ve seen the Redbirds play multiple times and I’m really impressed with this team. I thought they’d give Wichita State a better game in the MVC final. They didn’t. So the big question now is whether ISU will get an at-large bid. If ISU makes the tourney, I think they’ll win a first-round game. If the NIT is the call, then watch this team make a run to New York City. This is a very athletic team with starters who play well together and attack the boards.
Keon Johnson, Winthrop (photo, WRHI)
#3, Winthrop (Big South): Keon Johnson. He’s why. Keon is a 5’7″ guard who creates all kinds of match-up problems. Johnson averages about 23 points a game and shoots well from the field and line. WU won on the road against Illinois and has experience playing tight games (5 OT games played this year, 3-2 record). Take the Eagles lightly and you’ll lose.
#4, South Dakota State (Summit): Here’s another name to remember: Mike Daum. He’s a big man with solid post skills. Daum scored 37 in the Summit championship v. Nebraska-Omaha. Another name to watch is Mike Orris, a crafty guard, who does a good job in the half-court and on defense. The Jackrabbits were barely above .500 this season and they haven’t beaten anybody of note, but they’re hot. I wouldn’t bet against SDSU in the first round.
#5, Vermont (America East): The Catamounts dined on conference teams and haven’t lost a game since December. Vermont has serviceable talent and is well-coached, too. What I worry about is UVM’s out-of-conference performance, particularly against teams they might see in the tournament, like Butler (lost 81-69) and South Carolina (lost 68-50). UVM did hold its own against the Ivy League–beating Yale, Dartmouth, and Harvard–and that’s a good sign. Seeding and bracketing is the key for this team. With just the right slotting UVM has a chance to spring a first-round upset.
#6, Princeton (Ivy League): The Tigers went though the league undefeated this year and haven’t lost in 2017. But Princeton played a weak out-of-conference schedule with Cal and BYU the best teams on the docket … and the Tigers lost to both teams. But Princeton distributes the ball well (four interchangeable scorers), plays smart, and has plenty of NCAA experience. Look for back-cuts and easy lay-ins, which will pressure any defense. I like the Tigers chances in the first round.
Northern Kentucky’s Carson Williams (photo, NKU Athletics)
#7, Northern Kentucky (Horizon League): Northern Kentucky (24-10) was in Division II basketball only a few years ago. This is the very first year that NKU was eligible to participate in the Division 1 tournament and they won their league. Incredible! Earlier this year the Norse played Illinois well and stayed with WVU for a half. This is a well-balanced, well-coached team that won’t beat itself. With four players who score in double figures pay special attention to Carson Williams and Drew McDonald. Hardly anybody knows about NKU. They will soon.
#8, New Mexico State or Cal State Bakersfield (WAC). The WAC barely has a pulse these day. It’s a hodgepodge of lesser-known schools that either don’t (or can’t) fit in what would seem to be more compatible leagues (e.g., Seattle, Missouri-Kansas City, Southern Utah). That aside, I’ve always liked NMSU basketball, going back to the days when Lou Henson was head coach. And I’m impressed with D-1 newcomer, Cal State Bakersfield (21-8 regular season). One of those two teams should win this week’s conference tournament. Bakersfield isn’t a brand and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a name school take them lightly in the first round. The Aggies (25-5 regular season) can flat out beat you.
Five Mid-Majors To Avoid
Are there mid-major teams I’d avoid in the first round (if you’re looking for an upset, that is)?
Yes. Even though they are all conference tournament champs, I’d stay away from these three: Jacksonville State (Ohio Valley), Iona (MAAC), and Mt. Saint Mary’s (NEC).
I’d also stay away from mid-majors that are getting attention as potential bracket busters. Here are two that fit the bill. Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun): When the team made their inspiring run in the ’13 tournament the Eagles had a versatile guard (Brett Comer) and an athletic forward (Sherwood Brown) They don’t have that kind of talent this year even though FGCU played Baylor and Michigan St. tough on the road. League competition in the very weak Atlantic Sun Conference is the issue. Can lightening strike twice for this team? I doubt it. East Tennessee (Southern): Discipline. Focus. Defense. The Bucs almost blew a seemingly insurmountable lead against UNCG in the SoCon championship game. Poor shot selection. Foolish decisions. Poor ball handling. Those are killers any time, especially come tournament time.
So there you have it. No matter what happens, get ready for excitement, including a few surprises along the way.
