Storyline: UK will try to win its first bowl game in nearly a decade. Louisville wants to end the year on a high note.
The Commonwealth of Kentucky is known for fried chicken, horse racing, and college basketball. College football isn’t on that list. College football bides time until basketball season arrives.
College basketball is like a giant, king-sized burrito. College football? It’s like a side order of sour cream and guacamole.
Things may be changing, though. 2016 was a successful year for the state’s three FBS teams–Kentucky, Louisville, and Western Kentucky.
WKU football is on a roll. (photo, The Courier-Journal)
Behind a breakout season from Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, Louisville climbed all the way up to #3 in the AP Poll before stumbling late in the season.
Kentucky shook off a rocky 0-2 start to finish 7-5 and tie for second place in the SEC East.
Western Kentucky won the C-USA championship for the second year in a row.
More importantly for the Commonwealth 2016 was the first time the three schools participated in bowl games in the same year.
The Hilltoppers started off the post-season right — winning its game, downing Memphis 51-31, in the Boca Raton Bowl. Next Saturday UK will face Georgia Tech in The TaxSlayer Bowl and Louisville will take on LSU in The Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl. Both games will kickoff at 10 a.m. CST.
How might those games turn out? Here’s my preview.
Kentucky v. Georgia Tech
This is a game worth watching. With a lethal triple option, Tech has always been a run-first team. The Yellow Jackets average 257.4 yards a game, 12th best in the country. But the Wildcats aren’t far behind. UK ranks 17th nationally with an average of 241.3 rushing yards per outing.
Courtesy: UK Athletics
Junior RB, Stanley “Boom” Williams, leads the Wildcat rushing attack (95 rushing yards per game) and true freshman Benny Snell adds (on average) another 90 yards a game. Throw in running quarterback, Stephen Johnson, and one of the better offensive lines in the SEC, and it adds up to making the Wildcats a difficult team to stop.
The winner of this game will be decided by which team wins the battle of the trenches and can play-action pass effectively. For UK, that means replicating success from the Louisville game. The Wildcats established its ground game early and used the play-action pass to perfection.
PREDICTION: All-SEC Center Jon Toth will play the game of his life — in his last as a Wildcat. He’ll open up huge holes for Williams and Snell. Johnson will throw timely touchdown passes via play-action. That combo output will lift the Wildcats to their first bowl victory since 2008. I say, Kentucky 42, Georgia Tech 38.
LSU vs. Louisville
The Citrus Bowl is a consolation prize for Lamar Jackson and the Louisville Cardinals. In early November it looked like the Cardinals would be in the College Football Playoff. That’s because CFP rivals Clemson, Ohio State, and Washington all lost on November 12.
But the wheels fell off for U of L. Louisville was ran out of Houston, 36-10, and then lost to rival Kentucky, a 27-point underdog. It was an unfitting end to a remarkable season.
U of L’s Lamar Jackson (photo, mypalmbeachpost.com)
The Cardinals’ bowl opponent, LSU, can relate to having an up-and-down year. The Tigers were highly ranked as the season began, but disappointed early-on … so much so that head coach, Les Miles, was fired. But LSU rebounded under Ed Orgeron. The Tigers best game may have been against Texas A&M in College Station on Thanksgiving night. The Tigers dominated the Aggies, 54-33.
But there will be a missing piece in the Tigers’ arsenal when LSU faces Louiville: star RD Leonard Fournette opted not to play in the bowl game. That means it will be up to the Tigers defense. And if there’s a team in America (besides Alabama) that can put the pressure on Jackson, then that team is LSU.
It won’t be easy, though. Sag back and let Jackson throw? He’ll beat you. Focus on eliminating his passing game? He’ll run it straight up the gut, spin, and hurdle his way to the end zone.
Ironically, the best way to stop Jackson is … Jackson himself. Against UK he turned over the ball four times–three interceptions, one fumble. If that happens again, Louisville will end its season with consecutive losses to SEC teams–a bad statement for this up-and-coming program.
PREDICTION: Louisville will fall behind early by a two-score deficit, but then Jackson will rally the Cardinals in the second half. I say Louisville 34, LSU 30.
