Storyline: This year there’s a short list of safe running backs. Draft Wisely! Written by Jason Peters, Philadelphia, PA,
Todd Gurley, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliot are featured in EPSN’s Matthew Berry’s Top 5 Running Backs. Is the end truly here? This isn’t a piece slamming Matthew Berry or ESPN. Yahoo! has those three players as their top 3 and Bleacher Report has them all in the top 6.
“A Healthy Todd Gurley Is Runaway Favorite to Become 2015 NFL Rookie of the Year.” Bleacher Report
I’m not even saying that Todd Gurley, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliot aren’t top-tier players. I’m simply at a loss for words because it seems as if “The Era of Trustworthy Running Backs” is officially over.
Last year Arian Foster, Le’Veon Bell, and Jamaal Charles, all played fewer than 7 games each. Matt Forte, Lesean McCoy, and Eddy Lacy have fallen out of most writers top 10’s. And, worst of all, the league is shifting towards having “Running Back Committees” rather than stars getting 30 touches a game.
There will be no science behind drafting RBs this year. Last year there were the occasional let downs with the players we were all instructed to draft: Tevin Coleman, Eddy Lacy, Demarco Murray, just to name a few. But this season will be mostly let downs. Put the issue of injuries and running-back-by-committee to the side for a moment. There are essentially two issues being faced: aging players in new situations and young players who looked great last year.
For aging players, Jamaal Charles may be one of the most productive fantasy running backs ever. But he has struggled with injuries his entire career and will now start the season on the PUP List (Physically Unable to Preform). Demarco Murray, Matt Forte, and Arian Foster are all on new teams, in new systems, and have also struggled with injuries their entire careers.
These older players are extremely worrisome, not just to Fantasy Football, but to their teams. As a Fantasy owner, are you happy with having Ryan Matthews or Frank Gore starting for you on Sunday? Not even in a Flex Spot, as your RB2 on Week One, Frank Gore or Ryan Matthews are slated to be starters on teams. It’s not unfair to refer to a player like Arian Foster, at 29, as “aging in the NFL” when most RBs fizzle out by 30.
Courtesy: PalmBeachPost.com
The lifespan of NFL RBs has diminished rapidly. Fantasy Pros ranked Miami Dolphins RB, Jay Ajayi, at #32, but has fellow Miami Dolphins RB, Arian Foster, ranked at #33. Foster was once a Fantasy great, but now he’ll be attempting to shine while splitting carries with Jay Ajayi and other RBs who always seem to sneak their way onto the field, like the once relevant Isaiah Pead and Daniel Thomas.
I know at this point I sound like an angry old man refusing to accept change, which is borderline accurate. I do miss ‘the days of old’ watching Stephen Jackson and Marshawn Lynch take games over. I miss Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Lesean McCoy and Matt Forte battling on the stat board to prove that they are superior.
But now Charles and Foster can’t stay healthy, McCoy is splitting carries with Karlos Williams, and the Bills just signed Reggie Bush. Matt Forte is joining a Jets team that’s notorious for inconsistency at RB with Khiry Robinson, Bilal Powell, and Bernard Pierce.
But Adrian Peterson is still Adrian Peterson. That’s your safe RB pick this season–Adrian Peterson–which is real insider information.
The players last season that proved to be useful are now being displayed as Pro Bowlers. David Johnson, as a first round pick or perhaps first overall…. I understand his value in a PPR league but, in a standard league, pump the breaks. This Cardinals’ team has been cycling through RBs from year-to-year. Chris Johnson was extremely relevant last year, but he’s ranked 59th by Fantasy Pros and 55th by Matthew Berry out of all RBs.
The man who once rushed for 2,006 yards in a season, Chris Johnson, only played 11 games last season, but had nearly 1,000 yards on the ground. But, for some reason, he’s rated lower than Wendell Smallwood and Paul Perkins, who’ve never taken a NFL snap. David Johnson will be splitting time with Chris Johnson, Andre Ellington (remember him?), and Stepfan Taylor, but he’s being held to the same standard that we used to hold for Adrian Peterson.
Despite only being 21, I ‘ve been playing Fantasy Football far back enough to remember the secure feeling of drafting Adrian Peterson, Shaun Alexander, or Matt Forte–knowing that during 14-15 games of the 16-game season they’ll put up double-digit figures, usually good for a touchdown. But now, in order to be successful in Fantasy Football, you need to know upwards of 90 different RBs.
Alfred Morris (photo, redskins.com)
That’s not an overstatement. Ezekiel Elliot is highly regarded as a first round pick, even though he has never played a snap in the NFL. And the Cowboys still have Darren McFadden, who bounced back last year and had one of the best seasons of his career. Not only do the Cowboys have Darren McFadden, they now have Alfred Morris. But Matthew Berry has McFadden ranked at #48 behind Keith Marshall (a rookie in DC) and Alfred Morris isn’t even in his top 75.
So, y0u tell me: Is drafting a rookie (and currently under domestic violence investigation) with two established veterans behind him something you might be interested in?
Todd Gurley, Devonta Freeman, Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram, Latavius Murray, Doug Martin, Le’Veon Bell, and maybe a few others will be immune to the committee RB problem, but even these player face their own issues. Bell faces suspension. Doug Martin is inconsistent. And there’s the question of “Was it a Fluke” for Murray, Freeman, and Gurley–and that’s not even to dive into the injury implications.
Bishop Sankey (photo, bleacherreport.com)
Teams like the Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Patriots, and Titans are saturated with RBs–so much so that drafting their “go-to back” would essentially be a gamble. The Tennessee Titans have Bishop Sankey, David Cobb, Antonio Andrews, Jackie Battle, Demarco Murray, and rookie Derrick Henry–six RBs who have likely been on rosters in your league.
Who do you draft first? The veteran? The rookie? The goal line rusher? The receiving back? Or do you avoid teams, like Tennessee, who have uncertainty and go with a team like the Bengals? Cincinnati has Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. Both are ranked in most writers’ top 30, but who do you pick? Or do you just tough it out and draft both?
This year there’s a short list of safe running backs, but we will see the dynamic of Fantasy Drafts shift wildly away from RBs towards receivers and tight ends. There’ll be no changes for QBs because of the inflated stats. They’re essentially a dime a dozen.
RB uncertainty will cause players, like Brandin Cooks and Greg Olsen, to be 2nd Round Picks in 2016. This year marks the official shift in the league for Running Backs.
Draft Wisely!
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