Storyline: Here are four QB picks–two sleepers and two busts–to consider for your 2016 NFL Fantasy Team. Written by Dan Tonna.
Sleepers
Courtesy; ESPN
1.Eli Manning: As much as I hate the guy as a player, Eli Manning is definitely one of the most slept-on fantasy QBs in 2016. Manning might only win 7 games this year because the Packers, Vikings, Bengals, and Steelers make up the NYG’s non-division schedule. But that helps immensely in a standard scoring league. There are two reasons why. The first reason is that Eli is always playing down in the second half. Guys like Manning are obligated to throw the ball much more than guys, like Tom Brady and Carson Palmer, who will inevitably get some variation of the “Popovich treatment” with leads in the late 3rd and 4th quarters. The second reason is that the Giants are going to get absolutely no help in the running department. They’ll be throwing the ball something like 90% of the time. And while that line can hold its own in the passing game, the Giants will continue to struggle running the ball.
My Projection: 4,800 yards 32 TD’s 15 INTs, ESPN Ranking 9, Mine 6
Courtesy: goldengatesports.com
2. Derek Carr: Derek Carr is currently projected by ESPN to be the #15 QB in terms of production. Carr sits below Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, and Tyrod Taylor. Talk about a projection being absolutely botched by ESPN! With a rejuvenated Michael Crabtree, a young Amari Cooper, an emerging Clive Walford, and a consistent O-line, Carr should be able to put up more yards and a few more touchdowns than he had last year–when he had 32 TDs, 3987 yards, and 13 INTs. Carr is still young, so he might be streaky this year. But a potential top 5 defense will provide insurance for Carr, allowing him more room for error. That’s an excuse for extremely aggressive Raiders play-calling.
My Projection: 4,100 yards 35 TDs and 12 INTs, ESPN Ranking 15, Mine 7
Honorable Mention; Ryan Fitzpatrick (ESPN Ranking 20, Me 10); Teddy Bridgewater (ESPN Ranking 26, Me 22)
BUSTS
(With health, Romo would top this list)
Courtesy: Wikipedia.com
1. Philip Rivers: There’s no doubt in my mind that Rivers will put up a large number of yards. But the problem is whether they’ll be associated with getting into scoring position. The Chargers’ offense was absolutely banged up last year. If this team had picked Tunsil, Conklin, or Stanley with the 3rd overall pick in the NFL Draft then I might reconsider my evaluation. But this team has not upgraded the O-Line, which has been a major problem for the past two years. Rivers could be a top 5 fantasy QB, but I see SD getting no production by running the ball. And unlike the Giants, the Chargers’ line and receiving corps is not good enough to compensate. Why any of this is relevant to Fantasy football lies in the fact that this team won’t be able to get into the Red Zone, which means a lack of touchdowns for Philip Rivers. Let me also go on record as saying that the Bosa pick was a good decision. Management clearly wants to strengthen the defense with Jason Verrett emerging and Weddle being let go.
My Projection: 4300 yards 21 TDs 8 INTs, ESPN Ranking 11, Mine 14
Courtesy: SI.com
2. Matt Ryan: Please do not listen to the idiot analysts who think Matt Ryan is a ‘total sleeper.’ Although the guy is ranked #22 (and that’s where I believe he will fall) he’s not going to be that magical, pipedream QB that everyone seems to think he is. Matt Ryan has never been able to put the ball into the endzone and that’s only going to get worse with stud Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman getting the dirty work in the Red Zone. With the signing of Alex Mack for them not committing to the running game (even more than last year) will be a huge surprise. Now, for all the people out there that think Ryan is going to have a two-headed monster with Sanu and Jones, let me remind you that he still has no Red Zone target outside of Jones. He doesn’t have a good TE and Sanu is a rich man’s Brandon Lafell. He only had 2 TDs and 400 yards last year.
My Projection: 4500 yards 21 TDs 17 INTs, ESPN Rank 22, Mine 24
Honorable Mention: Matthew Stafford ( ESPN 17 ME 23), Marcus Mariota (Ranked ESPN 16 ME 21)
