Storyline: I predict that things will be closer and more bunched up this year. No team will run away with the conference. Written by
Courtesy: bouncyorangeball.com
For the fun of it, I thought I’d make a forecast of the NBA Western Conference, 2016-17. Doing that involves some intuition, common sense, numerology work and, then, a big guess–just like the pro sports coverage people do. I have on numerous occasions professed my clear-cut Blazers bias, so I’m not going to look at the entire NBA, just the Western Conference.
Decades ago the NFL did a heavy propaganda campaign selling the idea of parity. The thought was it would give smaller market teams a better chance to compete and make the season games closer–thus a bigger audience and more profit. As I look at this coming Western Conference season, I think about those years and the idea of parity.
My personal feeling is that things will be closer and more bunched up this year without any one or two teams running away with a record-setting numbers of wins. For the most part teams that were at the top come down the list and some that were at the bottom come up the list. Those that were in the middle stayed middle-ish.
All of this, of course, is speculation, but it sums up the way it looks like things will shape up for next season. Exceptions always exist with any speculation and so will it be in this case as well.
Having said that, it should be said that my predictions are not position-by-position prediction but, rather, an assessment of the trend for the year. The teams below are listed in the order of finish at the end of 2015-16. Kindly take into consideration that this is written before the trading and signings end. Rosters are not settled.
Courtesy – SI.com
Golden State Warriors:Historically it has not proven successful to load up on aging superstars to bolster a team’s roster (Payton Manning being a recent exception). Kevin Durant is not that old, but I believe that the Warriors will not reach the elevated space they did last year. Baffling early season losses will pop the elevated balloon and add to the mystery of their struggles.
San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs lose Tim Duncan, but still have a bevy of bucket list candidates on the roster. Always competitive they will hold their own even though rising franchises with younger players and new ideas chip away at their heels. Even with the ‘Old Fox’ at the helm they also do not reach the same level of accomplishment as last season.
Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder may have suffered the most from developments during the draft, free agency, and trade period. The Oklahoma franchise has proven resourceful, though, and they will stay competitive. The regrouping period after Durant’s loss will take two or three years. Because of that transition the team could take a noticeable dive in the standings for this season.
Los Angeles Clippers: Always on the edge of dysfunction–and good for a family drama along the way–the emotionally unpredictable Doc and his repeat legions from last year will stay in the mix and continue to be competitive. However fate and circumstance says they will not be a serious contender for the top spot in the conference.
Courtesy: oregonlive.com
Portland Trail Blazers: Although I’m still in the afterglow from single-handedly picking the Blazers exact results of last season, I feel some performance anxiety pondering the coming one. The guess here says that they win a few more games, but may not improve much in the standings. They will be better and will move favorably toward. Numerically, it looks like superb prospects for the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons.
Dallas Mavericks: Even with Mark Cuban’s known generous spending it’s difficult to buy a championship. The Mavs should improve slightly in record but most likely will not move much in the standings next year. A look at their ho-hum post-season activities doesn’t inspire much optimism about upward mobility.
Memphis Grizzlies: Always a bit of a mystery, Memphis seems delegated to perform about the same with possibly some slight improvement in wins. The acquisition of Chandler Parsons will not bear as much fruit as anticipated. With a new coach and new system, the adjustment period always takes longer than management wants. Their three- pronged talent base should keep them competitive.
Houston Rockets: This always entertaining, but dysfunctional club might not get rid of its image this season. The new coach does not have the most harmonious past with player issues and outside distractions. The riddance of Dwight Howard leaves the fragile Harden to rule his roost. Expect the usual wild, wacky, and weird out of the Oil City.
Utah Jazz: The talk about the young and restless Jazz being ‘on the move’ could just come true this season. This can be the season that finds them in the mix, replacing some of the teams that were near the top last year. Their acquisitions seem to fit and the young players gained valuable playing time last season.
Courtesy: sacbee.com
Sacramento Kings: Will they lose the title of ‘Dysfunction 101’ ? Oops! We’re supposed to be talking about basketball, not therapy. But there’s not a lot to talk about here. Perhaps a new coach can coax something out of the Kings. Not too much change is foreseen. However, there is talent and they could surprise.
Denver Nuggets: A young and younger Denver squad says this will be another transitional year of development and getting acquainted. As with any youth movement, there will be moments when they play with verve and fury. And there will come moments of chaos and confusion. They could be something akin to Portland of last year. If so, then Denvers will grab more wins than the pundit’s project.
New Orleans Pelicans: New Orleans pro teams seem to have a mama voodoo curse that deters any sustained winning seasons or championships. It looks like ’16-17 will be another building transition year with a slight note of optimism. They acquired some talent and will catch some better teams off guard with surprising wins. But the total won’t be many more than last year.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Over past few years the Wolves have started out with a lot of optimism, only to see dreams fade to naught. This year the optimism may well be justified. Odds say that ‘Tom Defense’ gets more out of the team than previous coaches. Look for the Wolves to make a noticeable improvement in the win column.
Phoenix Suns:There’s room for some optimism here. Rookie coach, Earl Watson, is close enough to his playing days to establish good rapport with young players. And the addition of a couple of old veterans adds glue to the unit. This writer says they will improve from last year’s record. Even with that, though, the Suns aren’t a threat to topple the front runners.
Courtesy: Wikipedia.com
Los Angeles Lakers: Young Luke ‘Sideline Walker’ will get more out of this group than the prognosticators expect. A proud city and franchise will not long tolerate the kind of season they had last year. It will be out of the basement and into respectability for the boys from Tinseltown.
