Storyline: Here’s a comprehensive look at the upcoming season for the West Coast’s premier league, The Pac-12.
The 2015 PAC-12 football season was interesting, to say the least, with more ups and down than a roller coaster ride. On the positive side, Christian McCaffrey, the star running back from Stanford, finished runner-up for the prestigious Heisman Trophy. Stanford also represented the PAC-12 quite well in the Rose Bowl game, dismantling a solid Iowa football team, 45-16.
But even though the PAC-12 went 6-4 overall in bowl games, last season wasn’t all roses. The PAC-12 didn’t do itself any favors during their non-conference schedule. The most glaring loss was Washington State’s home loss in Pullman to Portland St. But a much more meaningful loss came when Stanford went to Evanston and dropped a lethargic game to Northwestern, 16-6, in Week 1. While Northwestern was a solid team in 2015 (a 10-game winner), that loss cost the PAC-12 a seat in the Football Championship. With five power conferences and only four spots in the tournament, the PAC-12 became the teenage boy without a date to the prom.
The league was solid last year, but lacked a dominant team. The PAC-12 North continued its domination by claiming its 7th straight conference championship (Stanford three times and Oregon four times). You would have to go back to 2008 for the last time the PAC-12 South (USC that year) won the conference title.
Will that change this year? Who will be the league’s dark horses? Who is going to take a step back?
Recruiting
Recruiting is the life blood of college football and has only become more important in recent years. Fewer and fewer college football players are staying in school for four years. Many are jumping ship to pro football, which doesn’t make life easy for coaching staffs. With that being said, in the PAC-12 the rich keep on getting richer when it comes to the recruiting trail.
USC had the top recruiting class in the PAC-12 for this upcoming season and ranked 10th in the country. The Trojans snagged two five-star recruits and an amazing fourteen four-star recruits. This is not an unfamiliar position for USC: the Trojans have had the top or second ranked recruiting class in the PAC-12 for six years running.
UCLA finished 2nd in the PAC-12 (12th in the country) with one five-star recruit and ten four-star recruits.
Oregon has been a program that has recruited extremely well over the past few years. Their system is very attractive to players, especially on the offensive side of the ball. This year, however, Oregon finished with the fifth best recruiting class in the PAC-12 (28th in the country) While a top five ranking in the competitive PAC-12 in recruiting isn’t THAT BAD, it IS a drop from their usual spot in the top two.
On the other end of the spectrum, the poor get poorer. Take Oregon State and Colorado for example. These two programs finished at the bottom of the PAC-12 North and South last season. Oregon State finished 10th in the conference in recruiting (47th nationally), and Colorado finished last in the conference (66th nationally). Washington State was sandwiched in between these two schools in recruiting.
Position Players
Now let’s analyze key position players.
Quarterbacks: This is a position in the PAC-12 this year where teams are either solid or are extremely concerned. The best quarterback in my opinion is sophomore Josh Rosen from UCLA. As a freshman he threw for 3,669 yards and 23 TDs. I am a bit concerned that he lost his top two receivers from last year, but junior Darren Andrews and senior Kenneth Walker will hopefully fill that void. Several other big arms are poised to put up big numbers at other schools. Luke Falk at WSU (4,561/38 last season) will once again be the beneficiary of Mike Leech’s throw-first style. And if a duel-threat quarterback is your cup of tea look no further than Arizona junior quarterback, Anu Solomon. Last year Solomon threw for 2,667 yards and 20 TDs. On the “extremely concerned” ledger there are untested players at Utah and ASU. My dark horse QB this year is Jake Browning from Washington. He may only be a sophomore, but he is a gamer.
Running Backs: Running back is the one position where there is a clear-cut standout above the rest–Stanford junior running back Christian McCaffrey. He’s not only the best running back in the conference, but probably the best overall player in the league. The weight of Stanford’s season will be on his shoulders and he’ll respond to the pressure. Last year McCaffrey ran for 2,108 yards and 8 TDs. Those were just his rushing yards, though and he maybe even more valuable as a pass catcher and blocker out of the backfield. He also returns punts, making McCaffrey the most dangerous player for opposing teams to contain. Beyond McCaffrey, a few other names have a chance to be impact- players in the conference. Two names that come to mind are Royce Freeman from Oregon and Myles Gaskin from Washington. Last year, Freeman rushed for 1,836 yards and 17 TDs, while Gaskin ran for 1,302 yards and 14 TDs. Both are going to be extremely valuable to their team’s success this year. And if you are looking for the best duel-threat running back combo in the league, look no further than USC sophomore Justin Davis and senior Ronald Jones who will cause havoc for PAC-12 defenses this year. My dark horse running back this year is junior Demario Richard from Arizona State. In what might be an otherwise rough year for ASU, he may be one of their bright spots.
Wide Receivers: As the college football game has evolved into a pass-happy brand of football, it’s imperative that solid teams have athletic, quality wide receivers. The AC-12 is well-stocked at that position. Let’s start in Pullman Washington and senior Gabe Marks. Marks is the most distinguished and polished receiver in the league this year. He led the PAC-12 in receiving last year with 1,192 yards. Marks thrives in the Mark Leech system and I see no reason why this year will be any different. Marks will get some serious competition for top wide receiver honors from USC junior Ju-Ju Schuster. Many would argue that Schuster is a better all-around receiver then Marks. Another player to watch is junior Darren Carrington from Oregon. He fits in perfectly with their spread system. Besides being a deep ball threat he’ll also come across the middle and pick up hard-earned yards that keep drives alive. Senior Tim White from Arizona State is another young man to keep an eye on. He had 632 receiving yards last season, but quarterback concerns may limit his upside. My dark house receiver this year has to be junior Darren Andrews from UCLA. He maybe an unknown commodity right now, but I think Rosen will get him the football in explosive situations.
Offensive Line: It’s fair to say that the landscape of college football has changed drastically over the last 10-15 years–from a run first, time-possession game to a spread-them-out game. I feel that there is still plenty of room in the game for solid run-it-down-your-throat football, but that style is not possible without big guys up front creating holes for RBs. That’s where Stanford excels. Stanford will have the best O-line in the league–despite losing three starters from last season. Stanford knows how to recruit O-linemen and although you cannot automatically assume that you can plug-and-play in this position, my faith is in the Cardinal. Other teams are trying to built comparable offensive lines and Utah is one of them. The Utes are the only team in the conference to return four of their five starters up front. And keep an eye on Washington State. WSU boasts one of the league’s best up-front players in senior Eduardo Middleton. Middleton was a first team All PAC-12 selection last year and there’s no reason to believe he’s going to regress. Finally, remember that USC’s Zach Banner was a second team all PAC-12 selection up front last year. He’ll be a force again this season.
Defensive Line: The name of the game on defense is causing havoc. If you’re able to make the offense uncomfortable, then you’ll force your will on the opponent. That starts with guys on the defensive line. Can you stop the run on first and second down? Will you be able to rush the passer on third and long? The Washington Huskies return three of the top defensive linemen from last year’s team, including a sophomore and a junior. That means the future is bright up front for Washington–not only this year, but the years ahead as well. I feel that UCLA is going to have the best defense in the league this year and that will start up front. They return three starting D-linemen, two of which are seniors. They have experience at this position and enough depth to survive the brutal season which is the PAC-12. Defensive line could be an issue on the other side of Los Angeles, thought, as USC lost their entire starting D-line from last year. Keep an eye on Stanford for the same reason. The Cardinal return only one starter on the D-line from last year. My dark horse D-Line this year is Arizona State. While Sun Devils return three solid D-linemen, they have no depth at that position. So it’s imperative that the linemen stay healthy. If they do, then ASU has a chance to be very good.
Linebackers: Linebackers have to be extremely athletic. The days of linebackers just having to stop the run are well behind us. Tight ends are more and more like wide receivers and linebackers have to be able to go out and cover these gazelles man-to-man in the slot. UCLA is well-stocked with what is going to be the best linebacker tandem in the league this year in Jayon Brown and Kenny Young. These young men can fill run holes and cover fast receivers. They’re experienced and know what it takes to make big-time plays to win games. While they may be the best linebacker tandem in the league, there’re plenty of solid individual linebackers, too. The leading returning tackler in the league is Colorado’s Salamo Fiso. He recorded 88.5 tackles. Fiso gives Colorado a chance to be competitive on defense. Peyton Bender from Washington State is another player keep an eye on. He led the Cougars with 79 tackles last year and has the potential to be even better this year. Oregon and Utah have the biggest holes at linebacker. Oregon lost its entire starting linebacker corps. The Ducks have some veterans, but they are mostly unproven. Utah lost three of its top four linebackers from last season. Utah is a team that has relied on defense to navigate through the PAC-12. This year the Utes D should be ok, just not great.
Secondary: The last line of defense for any team is the secondary. If you have shut down corners and hard-hitting safeties you can zone-off certain parts of the field and cause frustration to an opposing offense. Overall, the secondary group is the strongest position in the PAC-12 this year. Picking the top squad is difficult, but I’ll go with USC for two reasons. First, the Trojans return the starting secondary. Second, they are young and energetic, starting two sophomores and two juniors. And while Oregon State will struggle as a team this year, it will not be because of the secondary. Three starters return from last year’s solid showing. Also watch out for UCLA and don’t forget about Stanford. Individually, Colorado has Chidobe Awuzie. He’s the returning leader in tackles in the secondary (78.5). I know that tackles in the secondary is not always a positive sign for a D-unit, but that is still an incredibly impressive number.
Special Teams: Games are often decided by special teams. And while there are plenty of ways STs can win games, in this article I’m going to focus on place kickers. Kickers can be very fickle so it is tough to say who’s the best kicker in the league. But my pick is Aidan Schneider from Oregon. Schneider is a junior who has made big kicks in his time at UO. But because Oregon has a tendency to go for two instead of an extra point and to go for fourth downs instead of kicking field goals, Schneider’s impact could be limited. Another kicker to watch is California junior, Matt Anderson, who has been kicking for several years now and is a consistent performer. And watch out for Oregon State’s Garret Owens, a guy who can kick for distance. Two teams I worry about when it comes to kicking are Arizona and UCLA. Arizona has Joe Pollack, who’s supposed to have a big foot, but he’s unproven at this level. UCLA is going to start the season with a place kicker who has yet to kick a ball for the Bruins.
TOP 5 NON-CONFERENCE PAC-12 GAMES
Here are the most important non–conference and conference. Games are listed by game date.
1. USC vs. Alabama (9/3) – Anytime a PAC-12 team has a chance to make a statement at a neutral site against last year’s BCS national champion they’ll need to take advantage of it. Both teams will be breaking in new quarterbacks. Junior Max Browne is going to have to step up for the Trojans. We all know that Nick Saban is going to have his defense ready, even if the offense is a step behind. A Trojan win could go a long way IF the PAC-12 doesn’t want to be left out of The Dance this year. I’ll even go a step further: Trojans, BE COMPETITIVE.
2. UCLA vs. Texas A&M (9/3) – OK Bruins, I’m officially on the bandwagon this year. Don’t make me regret it after Week 1. I know this is going to be a really tough for the Bruins going into College Station. I’m a believer, though. And if I’m truly going to believe I need to go ALL IN with a win on the road in SEC country. On a quick side note: new Aggie DC, Neil Mazzone, was on Jim Mora’s Bruin staff last year.
3. BYU vs. Utah (9/10) – BYU vs. Utah may not jump out as a top match up, but I’m a sucker for a solid rivalry and BYU vs. Utah fits the bill. These two schools don’t like each other, but they respect each other a great deal and that makes for hard–hitting, competitive football. I’m down on Utah this year, but the Utes had better win this game if they want bragging rights in the state. BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall has taken has talents to Virginia this year and Kalani Sitake takes over. He was an assistant coach at Oregon State last year and he was a Utah assistant for 9 years. The Utes by a field goal late.
4. Oregon vs. Nebraska (9/17) – I love when power conference teams go on the road to play other power conference teams. Oregon is doing that by traveling to Lincoln. I know that the Huskers haven’t been vintage for the past few years, but they’re supposed to be pretty good this year. If Oregon can pick up a win in this hostile environment it would go a long way for the league overall. This game worries me, though, especially as a night game. Sorry Ducks, Nebraska grabs a nice win for the Big Ten.
5. Notre Dame vs. USC (11/26) – I had to choose between this game and Stanford /Notre Dame in mid-October. I went back and forth and finally picked this game. Either game would have been a solid pick. Notre Dame and USC is a rivalry that goes back decades. One, if not both of these teams, is usually playing for something at this time of year. I have a feeling this game will be no different. USC has a brutal November schedule with back to back trips to Washington and UCLA, respectively, before this home game. If the conference shakes out the way I think it will, then the Trojans will have lost the PAC-12 South the week before at UCLA. And ND may be playing for New Year’s Six Bowl game — if all goes well. Motivation? That could spell trouble for the Trojans.
TOP 5 CONFERENCE GAMES THIS YEAR
1. Stanford vs. USC (9/17) – It’s rare that you get an opportunity for a prime time match-up, like Stanford and USC, in Week 3. It’s a little early for my blood, but I don’t make the schedule. If the PAC-12 South wants to get some dignity in the conference, they can take the first step by crossing over and beating PAC-12 defending champion, Stanford. The Trojans get this game in their backyard and they should be battle-tested by playing Alabama two weeks prior. I think Stanford is going to be good, but I also feel you may want to play them early before Soph QB Keller Chryst starts to figure it out. PAC-12 South strikes first blood.
2. Stanford vs. Washington (9/30) – Stanford makes another appearance on the list. When you win the PAC-12 you’re going to be involved in a lot of big games. The time is now for Washington and coach Chris Pederson. You’ll play Stanford in your house. If you want ANY chance to win this league, you must take care of your business here. I think they will. I can’t believe I am saying this, but it’s another chink in Stanford’s armor.
3. Washington vs. Oregon (10/8) – This is a huge game in the PAC-12 North. I’ve already made it clear that I think Stanford is going to take a step back this year. I don’t see Cal, Washington State, or Oregon State making major noise this year so that leaves the door open for Oregon and Washington. What worries me about Washington in this spot is they’ll be coming off of a huge home game against Stanford the week before. Oregon is used to playing and winning big games, especially at home. Everything screams out to pick Oregon in this game,and that’s probably the safe bet to make. I’m not in the business of always making the safe pick, though. Let’s go Huskies!!!
4. USC vs. UCLA (11/19) – I feel that the PAC- 12 South will come down to this game. I don’t expect the rest of the PAC-12 South to challenge the Bruins and Trojans for league supremacy. Utah is a fairly solid team. UA and ASU will be ok and could sneak up on someone, and Colorado is still a couple years away. USC and UCLA are the most consistent and talented teams, though. UCLA plays this game at home in Pasadena. The funny thing is that UCLA doesn’t dominate there. I almost feel as if it would be more beneficial if they played on a campus field instead. I would be a fool now to pick against UCLA after how I’ve built them up. Doesn’t mean it isn’t going to be a VERY close game though. It will be the Bruins in a nail-biter.
5. Arizona State vs. Arizona (11/25) – I haven’t given much love to the state of Arizona in this article. I just feel that both of these teams are just kind “of there.” Not great, not poor … hanging in the middle of the PAC-12. I chose this game for a couple of reasons. If the season plays out the way I think it may, a bowl bid may be on the line for one of these teams, if not both. Both teams made it to a bowl last year and, even though they aren’t ultra–talented this year, a non-bowl season would be a disappointment to the fan bases. I also feel that if Arizona doesn’t win this game and has a sub-par season Rich Rodriguez will be out as coach. Todd Graham might be able to deal the death blow to Rich Rod’s tenure in Tucson. I don’t think he will, though. Wildcats win the battle of Arizona.
Projected PAC-12 Standings
It will be a solid year for the PAC-12. The question is: Will there be the GREAT team to represent the conference in the Football Playoff? Only time will tell. In the meantime, here are my picks in the North and South.
PAC-12 North
1. Washington
2. Oregon
3. Stanford
4. Washington State
5. Oregon State
6. Cal
PAC-12 South
1. UCLA
2. USC
3. Arizona
4. Utah
5. Arizona State
6. Colorado
