Storyline: Basketball’s pace and style, along with its global scale, propel interest in the game. Football, on the other hand, faces a steep challenge. While Americans value toughness–and football delivers unquestionably–that very attribute puts pressure on the game’s viability. Head injuries will do in the sport.
Nothing is forever. What’s featured today can be on the undercard tomorrow. We know that.
When it comes to sports in America, though, it seems implausible to think that way about football. But let’s ask a question anyway: Will football persist as “America’s Game?”
I think not. My choice is basketball. And here’s why.
Courtesy: boxingnewsonline.net
Consider what happened to boxing and horse racing. When I was a kid those sports got center stage attention. Neither does today.
Pick up a copy of a local paper—any paper, any day, any place. Turn to the sports section. Classify the articles by sport. What will you find? Save for episodic stories about boxing legends (Ali) or time-specific races (The Triple Crown), odds are that none of the articles will be about either sport.
Will the same thing happen to football? Probably not. But the game’s future is far from secure, even though it’s unrealistic to reference football as “just a game.” It’s a national obsession.
Americans love football because it delivers like no other sport. To hit. To punish. To overwhelm. To push around. Americans value toughness. Our national psyche is drawn to combat with victory wrought through physical superiority. Football is all of that and more.
Courtesy: traumaticbraininjury.net
But the attributes that make football so attractive also put pressure on the game’s existence. The game plan for viability involves managing head injuries while protecting the essence of the game. And doing that is more easily said than done.
The fly in the ointment is science, namely, evaluating mental capacity in the living. Today that evaluation comes by way of autopsies following death. But researchers are working hard to develop a diagnostic test for the living.
Think about what will likely happen when that test is available? It will be administered to players across levels–from youth to pro. Those who are shown to have diminished capacity won’t play. Neither will those who display early stages of disease. Even if players want to play, legal barriers will keep many (if not most) away from the game. And, all the while, parents will discourage kids from playing and institutions will be wary of law suits. Both of those things are happening already.
In the years to come smart money won’t be placed on football—at any level—high school, college, or pro. And it won’t go on baseball (too slow), hockey (too regional), or golf/tennis (too elite).
My pick is basketball. The game cuts across age levels—from youth to pro. The pace, style, and flow of the game is appealing, especially to younger audiences. And basketball is “the world’s game,” not confined to the U.S. Only two sports can claim worldwide status–soccer and basketball. Every other sport finishes third, even sports that are big here or big there, including American-style football.
I’ve seen that world-wide interest first-hand. A few years ago I gave a short talk to a group of college students enrolled at a school in China, a place located not far from the Siberian border. I don’t speak Chinese and few of those in the audience were fluent in English. I’m not sure many in the audience cared about what I said during my talk, but more than a few came up after I finished. What did they ask? They wanted to know which players I thought would go high in the upcoming NBA Draft. I wasn’t much help: most of them knew more than I did about the NBA.
I was surprised. So were they.
So my bet is that we’re in the midst of third transition–a shift of epoch proportions–from baseball, to football, and now to basketball. The game may well become our new national pastime. If so, the NBA will lead the way. The League will expand around the world—Europe, Asia, Australia, the Middle East, all over. NCAA and high school games will follow.
Courtesy: Cleveland.com
And let’s not forget, sports = business. It’s about money. And more and more money is going on basketball. NCAA coffers grow by over a billion dollars a year from March Madness alone. As for the NBA, it’s more of the same: franchise values are skyrocketing and TV rights were sold recently for nearly $3 billion a year. For high schools and colleges it’s a matter of addition by subtraction. If there are only two revenue-generating sports—football and basketball—and football declines, then….
And just consider what’s happening this month, right before our eyes, with the NBA Finals. There hasn’t been this much public interest in pro basketball since Michael Jordan’s days in the League. It’s Steph v. LeBron. Silky smooth v. athletically powerful. West Coast suave v. Rust Belt tough. Will Cleveland finally win a championship? Will Golden State repeat?
Move over football. The Next Big Thing is here. And it’s only going to get bigger.
