Storyline: Who’s hot and who’s not in NFL off-season signings? Here’s my list on both sides of the ball. Written by Dan Tonna, Rocky Hill, CT.
STUDS
1. Evan Mathis to ARI, 1 year, $4 million: Arizona struggled at guard all last year despite the efforts of building that position for years through the draft. Since no promising prospects were on deck and with Cooper gone (even though he was ineffective last year and I attribute that to lack of line coaching) signing Mathis is a great idea. Palmer won’t take half the cracks he took last year with struggling interior linemen and, perhaps, David Johnson or Chris Johnson can resume the great running attack they had at the beginning of last year. With the Cardinals also being presumably the one/two seed in the NFC, having a guy like this will help in the playoffs and in a division with the best defensive line in football (STL) and the ever-present Seahawks.
Courtesy: chatsports.com
2. Sean Smith, 4 years, $38 million ($20 million guaranteed): With Revis getting $39 mill guaranteed with last year’s cap restrictions, paying Sean Smith this money is very economical. Unlike the Giants, who criminally overpaid Janoris Jenkins–who has the tendency to not show up and not try–Sean Smith is a consistent cover guy who can play the WR1 easily. The Raiders are helping a defense that played very well last year. With an active, young pass rush, Smith will have his usual stellar performance aided. He’s also put in a scenario very similar to what he had in KC. With good guys around him, he’s not going to a 2-14 Raiders. He’s going to a revamped Raiders team. I think a big year is on the table for Smith, who at 28, is in the prime of his career.
3. Matt Forte, 3 years, $12 million: For this price Forte is a steal, even though he’s going into the bottom half of his career. I almost never give credit to RBs because, in the NFL, they usually feed off a good passing game, good play calling, and a good line. However, in defense of Forte, Bell, Peterson, McCoy, Charles, and perhaps Freeman, these guys would be able to average 4.3 yards a carry with any situation they are put in — unlike other RBs. If the Jets are looking to rebuild this year, this signing is probably meaningless. But if they do get Fitz back, or maybe draft another guy, then he can contribute to the running game and catch passes along with Powell out of the backfield. Forte can also help any QB make the transition to the NFL. If the Jets don’t sign a QB, which is borderline suicide in the NFL, then they will be the real duds for all the money they dedicated to Revis. However, if Fitz is on the roster, they’ll get a great RB who can replace a banged-up Ivory.
Courtesy: sportingnews.com
4. Brock Osweiler, 4 years, $72 million: I’m not going to say that Osweiler will be the next Brady or Manning, but let’s be honest: Houston needs a QB. Houston did as best as they possibly could without a QB last year. Adding Osweiler can make this good team become a 12-4 and, maybe, a Super Bowl contender in a weak AFC. If the O-line can hold up, this team will be a serious threat on offense. With good play from Kareem Jackson and an inconsistent Kevin Johnson, and a healthy Jonathen Joseph, this team has the potential to be a top-7 team on both sides of the ball. Plus the price on Osweiler is not that bad: $18 million for a QB is not terrible when Flacco just got a 3yr/$66 million dollar extension. Although he’s unproven, I expect Osweiler to instantly improve this Texans team by at least 2 wins. They’ll pay a half decent price for him, too.
5. Alex Mack, 5 years, $45 million: I personally would have liked Mack to have gone to the Texans, where he could have been the next Chris Myer, who played extremely well and was arguably the best lineman contributing to Foster’s success a couple years ago. (You can also make a case for Duane Brown). However, the Falcons got a good price on a generally healthy and very productive center. Interior linemen, and pretty much all the line in terms of the passing game, have been problematic for the Falcons. With Mack on the roster, I believe there’ no excuse for Matt Ryan to play poorly this year–with the hope of maybe adding a WR3 in the Draft to go along Jones and an overpaid Sanu. Exterior lineman should also be a point of emphasis heading into the Draft. But at least the Falcons greatly helped the interior line.
Honorable mention: Sweezy to TB, Trevathan to CHI.
Duds
1. Mohamed Sanu, 5 year, $32.5 million to Atlanta Falcons: You knew someone would overpay him, but I expected someone like the Jets to do it. Let’s put the stats on the table. Sanu had 2 TDs and about 450 yards last year. And now he is about to be 32.5 million richer?! Sanu will probably put up 800 yards this year, but the Falcons could have been a lot more economical in the way they went about getting a POSSESSION WR. Ideally, the Falcons should have improved at TE because Matt Ryan plays better when he has good TEs, like Tony Gonzalez. This would have been something in reach as it was obvious the Bears were shopping Bennett. The Falcons also could have looked to the Draft for a TE in a very deep TE draft. And they could have even invested a first rounder in Hunter Henry or, later, with Rico Geathers, who will probably fall to late 3rd or early 4th round. The Falcons also should have signed a cheaper option at WR, like Mike Wallace, and then pursued a WR in the Draft. It’s obnoxious to give an virtually unproven guy this kind of money.
Courtesy: bigblueview.com
2. Damon Harrison, 5 year, $46 million to New York Giants: Harrison is one of the best run stuffers in the NFL, but the key words are “run stuffer.” He had 0.5 sack(s) last year. 0.5 sack(s) and you’re going to give him this contract! I know you have cap space, but this move could have been much cheaper if you had targeted a guy like Terrance Knighton, who just signed with NE for $2.75 million. If I’m going to pay a DT an astronomical amount of money I’d pay a guy like Geno Atkins, Gerald McCoy, or Aaron Donald. Any one of them can post double-digit sacks and also stuff the run.
3. Janoris Jenkins, 5 year, $62.5 million to New York Giants: The Oliver Vernon signing was as stupid as the Malik Jackson signing, but I won’t include it because the reasons are the same (decent production because the threats around him and isn’t worth the money). However, replacing the bad Vernon signing is the Janoris Jenkins signing. Jenkins is a great talent and perhaps has great potential. But this guy has off-the-field and attitude issues, which were contributing factors in him being drafted so late. He also has a tendency to stop trying. He will make great plays one game and, then, not show up the next. Coming off his rookie deal and into this ridiculous contract is going to make matters worse. The price isn’t bad given Darrelle Revis’ similar deal at age 30, but the guy is not going to try–and with a new coaching staff this guy will have no reason to try. I hope for the sake of the NFL and Jenkins that we’ll see him become an elite player consistently, but I don’t think he’ll ever have the desire to excel in the NFL. For the Giants sake, I don’t think a good team can be built through free agency. Top players usually stay with their teams and no one player, with exception of a QB, will change a team with that many wins. The Giants should have built through the draft and directed money toward cheaper, veteran FAs.
Courtesy: bleacherreport.com
4. Chris Ivory, 5 years, $32 million to Jacksonville Jaguars: Well, Chris Ivory is now under contract until he is 33, which translates to about 500 running back years. Do not get me wrong, Ivory is a fantastic player and I would take him on my team, any day. The problem is his inability to be an every-down back, He can’t catch the ball and help in the passing gain like T.J. Yeldon could. Another problem is that the Jaguars already have Yeldon, who had a decent rookie year last year and can hopefully turn into a good, every-down back. This signing will take away from Yeldon, who had a hot finish last year. Another problem with Ivory is injuries. Ivory runs very aggressively and that makes him much more prone to injury. If the Jaguars really desired a RB, they should have targeted Miller, an every-down back who got a similar contract in Houston. But, even then, they should not have even looked at a RB because it’s a dying position, one that can be filled easily. The RB position is the sole reason the NFL has developed the nickname “Not For Long.” A RB is the team dog: he runs until he dies. Unless you’re getting an elite back (Forte, Peterson, Bell, Charles) any RB signing just isn’t worth it.
5. Malik Jackson 5 years, $85.5 million to the Jaguars: Jackson is good. I won’t take away from that. But he’s in no way worth this amount of money. It’s known that the price on D-lineman is inflating more than other positions, but this guy probably won’t even get 10 sacks this season. Malik Jackson had the luxury of rushing along Von Miller and Demarcus Ware, which means single-blocking scenarios all the time. It’s blatantly obvious why this guy was so good: he had so much production around him. But, in Jacksonville ,he’s going to get doubled. He won’t be efficient unless the Jaguars draft a DE like Bosa or Buckner. I don’t see that happening, though. Ideally, they should have signed CBs to help the secondary and, then, build the D-line through the Draft. They also have Fowler coming back, who can have an impact in the pass rush, if all else goes wrong.
Honorable mention: Miller to HOU, Vernon to NYG, and Hicks to CHI.
