Storyline: Armed with statistics and a deeper knowledge of how to use those numbers, here are my predictions for this weekend’s NFL Wild Card Games. Written by Joey Rodriguez. North New Jersey
It’s that time once again, playoff time in the National Football League. And whether your team made it to The Dance or didn’t (like my beloved New York Jets … and it still hurts) you can still be very much a part of the action.
Anyone who has ever watched football knows that stats don’t always add up to much. Let’s be honest: numbers won’t tell you that an offense scored a touchdown, kicked off, and the returning team fumbled on their own 20-yard line. Stats can’t capture demoralization.
Yet, statistics do have a place in sports. Baseball has benefitted from Bill James’ work on sabermetrics and pro basketball junkies refer to John Hollinger’s work all the time. Now, what if I told you the same precision can be applied to the NFL? You’d probably say I’m crazy: “Can’t be done.” “There’s no such thing.” But that’s only if you’re looking for the NFL version of the On-Base Percentage or using a single algorithm to tell you everything you need to know about teams and opponents.
But what if I also told you there are three separate factors that, when taken together, will give you at least a 65% chance for predicting the outcome of a NFL game? Why do you need three? Well, if there is anything we’ve learned from watching NFL football it’s this: sometimes “stuff just happens.”
Why leave predictions to Blind Luck? Armed with statistics and a deeper knowledge of how to use numbers, NFL bettors and Fantasy players can now make educated decisions.
Courtesy: ca. sports. yahoo.com
Factor #1 – The Power Ranking Formula: Power rankings are always fun. You get to see, from top to bottom, the best and worst teams in the NFL. And you can be successful at predicting winners and losers by using this formula.
For example, this Sunday the Seahawks will face the Vikings in Minnesota. Many people make the mistake of looking at the scores of the last few weeks and, then, adding them up and dividing the total. That puts a lot of weight on any one game, a game that could very much be an anomaly. What you want to do is write down the last 5 scores, going from lowest to high. Find the median (for those who failed math, it’s the midpoint, which in this case is the third number). For example, if Seattle scores were 17, 30, 35, 36, 38, the median would be 35.
Because the NFL average score is 23, Seattle would be +12. Now, we all know that football is a game of matchups, using the same formula, let’s look at the Vikings defense. Minnesota gave up 13, 17, 17, 23, and 38 in the last five games. The median give-up is then 17, or -6, given the League’s average of 23.
So here’s your formula: 23 + 12 – 6 = 29. Twenty-nine points is what you can expect Seattle to score.
Factor #2 – The Over/Under Spread Formula: I remember putting in my weekly FanDuel lineup, first always looking at the over/under and spreads. There’s a reason Vegas is king when it comes sports betting. So be sure to always keep those stats in mind when using Fantasy and predicting winners and losers.
Factor#3 – TER Algorithm: TER is the highly effective way a bettor or Fantasy player can know which team is efficient in both offense and defense. Stats, such as Passing Attempts and Sacks, can always be misleading. But TER takes into consideration yards in a game, points, turnovers, and passing and rushing yards per attempt, to give you the cleanest numbers to measure high efficiency.
Now, with all that said, here are my predictions for this weekend’s NFL Wild Card Games. And you can take these to the bank!
Courtesy: theinscribermag.com
#5 Kansas City Chiefs vs. #4 Houston Texans
Vegas has predicted that Houston will win this game due to KC’s history in the Playoffs. But I believe the Chiefs will win this game. Here’s why.
Using the Power Rankings Formula, the Chiefs rank 7th in offense and 3rd in defense of the Playoff teams. Houston is below the League average in offense and middle of the pack in Defensive Power Rankings.
Expect this to be a Low Scoring game. Whereas Vegas has this games O/U at 40, do yourself a favor and choose the Under. These are two anemic offenses with strong defenses.
KC has a 33.2% chance of appearing in the AFC conference, a 19.5% chance of winning the AFC, and a 10.7% chance of taking the Super Bowl. HOU has the second worst chance at winning the Super Bowl (1.6%). They have as long a shot at appearing in the Conference Championship as they do winning it.
#6 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. #3 Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals, 3-point dogs, are at home with a confident A.J. McCarron. While you need to keep an eye on his sprained wrist, I still like the Bengals and their balanced attack–on both sides of the ball.
This game has potential of being a shoot-out. With the explosiveness of Big Ben and Antonio Brown, and the horrible display of what is known as “the Steelers pass defense,” I’ve decided to chose the Over on this game (at 45 total points).
Cincinnati dropped precipitously after the injury to their leader, QB Andy Dalton. Yet McCarron’s emergence during the Monday Night Game with Denver proved that the Bengals are in good hands–especially at home against that awful Pittsburgh pass defense.
#6 Seattle Seahawks vs. #3 Minnesota Vikings
The last time these two teams played was a little over a month ago. Seattle whopped Minnesota in Minneapolis. While I don’t think the Vikings will get embarrassed again, that doesn’t mean I think the Vikings will win this game. They won’t. Furthermore I believe this is probably the easiest Wild Card game to predict.
Vegas has the ‘Hawks as 5-point favorites with an Over/Under of 39.5. I’m inclined to go Under: all of their 30-point games have come at home, in Seattle.
Seattle also has the 2nd best chance at winning the Super Bowl (15.1%) and 3rd best chance at winning their Conference Championship. Minnesota’s chances, on the other hand, are 3rd worse. Seattle is also 5th in Offensive Power Rankings and 1st in Defense. Minnesota sports a below-average offense with a solid defense, which ranks 5th of all 12 playoff teams.
#5 Green Bay Packers vs. #4 Washington Redskins
If anyone told you at the start of this season that the Redskins would knock off the Packers in the Playoffs, everyone would think I had just eaten paint chips. But here we are. Cousins is a completely different player when he’s quarterbacking at home. Expect this game to be a close one, which is why Vegas has Green Bay as a 1-point favorite. But, from where I sit, I believe Washington to come through with the upset.
The Over/Under is 45. Washington is averaging 35 points in its last three games. They are playing this game at home against a Green Bay defense that’s a pinch above the League average. Washington is below the average. Expect the Over to be the correct choice.
Washington doesn’t have the best chance to win the whole thing or even to appear in a Conference Championship, but guess who has the worst chance? Yes, the Packers, who have the worst chance–8.7% at making the conference championship and less then 1% at winning it all.
Oh, my! How the mighty have fallen.
