Storyline: Statistics and outcomes don’t align. MSU was likely a 10-4, 12th-15th ranked team. But with grit and luck the Spartans overachieved. Written by Zachary Elledge, Detroit.
Courtesy: maguzz.com
Michigan State was never going to win the national semifinal game against Alabama. In a hundred tries they would maybe get five or eight wins. They played fairly well in the first half, and were driving at the end to make it 10-7, when Cook threw an interception to go into the half. The momentum ended and they never got close again.
The reason why they never had a chance was twofold: they never had a running game (a major weakness for the entire year), and the injury to/overreliance on Connor Cook.
The running game is a staple of Michigan State football. They’ve always had one solid runner with a backup waiting in the wings for the next year. Last year they had Langford, then Bell, and Ringer before that. With decent quarterbacks– Cousins (my favorite), Hoyer, and Stanton–MSU had a balanced attack based on play action that opened up the middle for their crossing routes and running lanes for running backs. This year the Spartans had three different running backs, each with over one hundred carries and each with between 150 and 700 yards. I can name one of these guys, L J Scott–only because he made a herculean effort in the drive against Iowa.
This stable of running backs had only 2000 yards with a 3.8 yards per attempt. This was good for 71st of 128 in the FBS and 102nd in yards per attempt. Even though the running game was futile State ran the ball more than most FBS teams, ranking 31st in the country in attempts.
You can prove anything using statistics but, anecdotally, most of the year it felt like they were smashing the fans’ heads into a wall hoping for a different result. I know it’s a cliché, but that’s the definition of insanity.
Courtesy: MSU Today.com
I trust Coach Mark Dantonio. He does this for a reason because he knows that, even if it doesn’t work, the other team still has to account for the running play. That approach stops teams from going with five cornerbacks and having every receiver double-covered. I don’t blame Dantonio for his decision because you have to do it, but it’s painful to watch.
Compared to last year, Langford had 276 carries for 1500 yards, which was more than MSU’s top two backs in 2015. In 2014 the Spartans were 20th in total rushing yards, 27th in yards per attempt, and 19th in rushing attempts. That’s the ideal Michigan State offense: using passing lanes vacated by linebackers to account for the threat of the running game. That translates into a large dose of crossing routes, quick passes, and long runs after the catch. When the running game never gets going, as it did this year, you have tighter throwing windows and harder passes to make. Cook was only able to do so much without a legitimate threat of the run.
Courtesy: MLive.com
The running game helps the passing game. And even though Cook was brilliant most of the year, he was physically unable to play near the end. Without a running game Cook dropped off from last year. He threw the ball 50 more times this year while having the same number of touchdowns, one less interception, and a completion percentage that was 2% less than 2014.
Connor Cook didn’t get worse: he was asked to do more and wasn’t able to do it. The most telling statistic of the season was 3rd Down efficiency when State was in a passing situation, that is, 3rd-and-6 or more yards to go. The Spartans were quite efficient in these situations. On most drives MSU would run once for three yards, throw an incomplete pass, and then make Cook convert the 3rd-and-7. But he’d do it more times than not. But here’s the problem: you can do that against Indiana and Penn State but it’s not going to work a lot when you’re playing the better teams, like Alabama or Michigan. Cook couldn’t do everything and, ultimately, he wasn’t enough to overcome 26 rushes for 28 yards against Alabama. Cook was, once again, put in a lot of 3rd-and-long situations. He had to press and wasn’t as effective as he usually is.
Courtesy: michiganstatevs-alabama.com
The other thing that limited Spartans success was the injury to Cook’s shoulder in the Maryland game (6-20, 77 yards, 1 interception). Cook was never the same after he injured his shoulder–over-throwing and under-throwing receivers with a regularity. He wasn’t sure of his arm strength after the injury and also wasn’t able to adjust to wearing a large pass- encumbering brace. The injury caused him to miss the Ohio State game.
Cook was good in his return against Penn State, 19-26 with 248 yards and three touchdowns, in a game State really needed to handle to give them confidence for the tough road ahead. He seemed fine, but in the Big Ten Championship. he was clearly still feeling the effects of the injury, routinely missed open receivers (16-32, 191 yards and 1 interception). This caused MSU to lean on a nonexistent running game, especially in the last scoring drive, when State ran the ball on 17 of the 22 plays.
That worked against a Big Ten defense but, unfortunately, wouldn’t work against the defense of Alabama. Cook’s injury forced State to rely on the run game more and that led to Cook having to press, forcing him to make throws he couldn’t make due to the injury. It led to an interception before the half and other throws that a mature quarterback, like Cook, doesn’t make typically. He ended his illustrious career getting sacked four times, hit many more times, and throwing 19-39 for 210 yards and 2 interceptions.
State never had a chance to win and I don’t know why I allowed the pre-game hype to fool me into thinking they could win. In the end, it doesn’t matter though. Here’s why.
Courtesy: payneinsider,com
Pythagorean expectation is an advanced statistic in the NFL based on the number of points scored and the number of points given up. If you have more wins than win expectancy says, that means you won a lot of close games and you probably aren’t as good as the number of wins you actually have. You “out played” your record and got lucky a lot of different times.
When this statistic is translated to college football, Michigan State (with 417 points for 304 points against) is a 10-4 team. They’re ranked 13th in S&P a metric that takes into account a lot of different factors. The Spartans are ranked 18th in FPI.
MSU played a lot of very close games against some mediocre teams and eked out wins against some great teams. They needed a last-second miracle against Michigan and, again, against Ohio State. Translated that means State probably didn’t deserve to be in the position that they were at season’s end. They probably should have dropped the games to Michigan, Ohio State, and Oregon. Statistically, State was a decent but not great team. They shouldn’t have gotten to the Big Ten Championship and probably shouldn’t have gotten into a New Year’s 6 Bowl.
By comparison, last year’s State team was a much better–with a better defense, running game, and passing game. They were a much more efficient team, too, except when it came time to the likes of playing Oregon and Ohio State, both of whom made the national semifinals. This year, though, State overplayed and beat the best teams when it mattered–Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa.
Courtesy: freep.com
I don’t know what caused them to make the leap this year and not last year. Maybe they were more mature this year. Maybe they were better coached by the adept Mark Dantonio. Maybe they were just luckier, which is probably most likely. It doesn’t really matter, though: they got more wins and moved into the next tier, competing for national championships.
But MSU wasn’t ready to be in that level. 38-0 is a more painful way for this story to end.
But I’d rather be in a position to get stomped by Alabama than have to go back to the Rose Bowl and play Stanford again. Each time they made a leap–against Georgia in the Capital One Bowl, against Stanford in the Rose Bowl, and against Baylor in the Cotton Bowl–they were able to compete at that tier. But if State had gone back to the Rose Bowl the team’s progress would have leveled off–even if they had beaten Stanford again.
So I’m happy that the Spartans beat Iowa in the Big Ten Championship, even if it meant playing and losing to Alabama. That meant State reached the next level. With another magical year State might make to the final game.
What’s the bottom line? I won’t remember the 38-0 shellacking against Alabama. I’ll remember beating Oregon after losing last year’s loss. I’ll remember all the close games against mediocre Big Ten teams. I’ll remember the botched punt and return for a TD as time expired against Michigan. I’ll remember the announcer’s voice cracking as he screamed “…and he scores on the last play of the game.”
I won’t remember Nebraska. We don’t need to talk about Nebraska, other than to say that it makes State’s season a better story. It gives you the conflict you need, and the motivation to win out, when nobody expects you to win. That’s because the Nebraska loss made MSU the ultimate underdog story.
Michael Geiger celebrates after kicking winning field goal against Ohio State (courtesy thebiglead.com)
I’ll also remember the field goal against Ohio State and Michael Geiger’s ‘air guitar’ all over The Horseshoe as disappointed Ohio State fans look on. I’ll remember the crushing of Penn State after not being able to handle a team like that all year. Lastly, I’ll remember the drive against Iowa: an 83 yard, 22 play, 9-minute 4 second beauty. I’ll remember L J Scott, a freshman, reaching over the pile past three Iowa defenders to get the final score to make the game 15-13 and get State into the Football Playoffs.
I won’t remember the bad and I don’t think other Spartan fans will, either. It was a magical season and I wouldn’t change anything. I told myself I wouldn’t be disappointed no matter what happened … and I wasn’t.
I love Michigan State.
Well done!