Storyline: I’m more confident in the Raiders’ future then I have been in a long time. Maybe it won’t happen because making the leap from OK to good is tough in this league, but Oakland has some damn good pieces.
After a loss to the Packers in Week 15, eliminating the them from the Playoffs, the last two weeks of the Oakland Raiders’ season weren’t meaningful. But every game matters to a Raider. They had two jobs to accomplish in those final two NFL weekends: beat San Diego in Oakland in Week 16 (thereby allowing Charles Woodson to ride off into retirement with a final win in front of home fans) and upset Kansas City in Week 17 (doing whatever damage possible to the Chiefs playoff positioning and ending the Chiefs nine-game winning streak).
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Mission #1 was accomplished on Christmas Eve. The Raiders won a 23-20 OT squeaker over the Chargers. Then there was a not-so-happy ending in Arrowhead as those damn Chiefs beat the Raiders, again, this time, 23-17. (The worst losses are Chief losses, Nation).
That left the Silver & Black with a 7-9 record for the 2015 season. Both games followed a familiar pattern for a team that had developed over the final half of the season: an improved defense kept the Raiders competitive, but the offense struggled with consistency, losing the explosiveness it had shown in September and October.
Even with a 13th straight season falling short of the Playoffs, the first season under head coach Jack Del Rio has to be considered a mild success. This team had only 11 wins the past three seasons and was blown out of many games. In 2015, though, they were within a TD in the 4th quarter of every single game–besides the opener against the Bengals. Del Rio took the first step in getting this team competitive again. Now he looks towards the Playoffs in year two.
Let’s take a look at the 2015 Oakland Raiders and see what they did this season and how they can improve in 2016.
The passing offense and QB Derek Carr started the season strong. It looked like fireworks wouldn’t stop after Oakland dropped 37, 34, and 35 points, respectively, in Weeks 7 through 9. Then Carr cooled off, just like that. The Raiders’ offense, which had been averaging 27 ppg and 375 ypg in the first 8 weeks, dropped to 18 ppg and 283 ypg after that. While Carr had the best statistical season at QB for Oakland since Rich Gannon’s MVP season in 2002, the final 8 games shows there’s much work to do.
The good news is that Carr’s season stat line was prolific: 3,987 yards, 32 TDs, 13 Int. 61% comp, and 7 yds per att. His improvement from season one to two was remarkable but, to become an elite QB, he has to step up his game in several areas.
Courtesy: abc7news.com-
Carr began using his feet more to escape pressure in the last few games of the season, which kept defenses off balance. That needs to continue. Carr also needs to get better at throwing on the move. He’s great in the pocket, but truly elite QBs make plays when the pocket breaks down. Elite defenses just won’t let you sit back there all day. And, while Carr led some late-game comebacks, he also showed a penchant for late-game turnovers. He had 8 turnovers in the 4th quarter (the entire Nation remembers the Chiefs game in Oakland). Those TOs are game killers and need to cease.
I’m sold on Carr as a franchise QB, but nothing is a sure thing until you see it year after year. Witness Colin Kaepernick across the Bay. However, if Carr can make a leap from year two to three, as he did this offseason, then…. (I don’t know the answer because I’ve never felt the feeling of rolling with a young, stud QB. I’m sure the spoiled Packers and Colt fans can let me know.)
The sure-thing for this Raiders team is at wide receiver. Similar to Carr, rookie Amari Cooper (72 rec, 1,070 yds 6 TDs) set the league on fire the first half of the season, but really got his roll slowed after that. If Cooper can work on his drops (League-leading 18, sheeeet!), and his chemistry with Carr improves, then he’ll be a true #1 wide receiver in this league.
On the opposite side of the field, the Raiders have a perfect complement to Cooper in possession-receiver, Michael Crabtree. Signed as a free agent in the offseason, Crabtree was such a success (with 85 rec, 922 yds, 9 TDs) that Oakland resigned him to a new 5-year deal. Throw in promising rookie slot receiver, Seth Roberts (32 rec, 480 yds, 5 TDs), and this young crew should only get better over time. They just need to add more young speed to help in the return game.
I love the potential of young rookie tight end, Clive Walford (28 rec, 329 yds, 3 TDs), who showed soft hands and a nice big wiggle after the catch. His blocking is solid and he should be the Raiders starter in ’16. The team also has a deep tight end group: Lee Smith is an excellent blocker, and Mychal Rivera is a nice option in the passing game.
Donald Penn (courtesy Raiders.com)
The offensive line was a top pass-blocking unit for much of the year until injuries took a toll. Anchoring the unit is left tackle Donald Penn, left guard Gabe Jackson, and center Rodney Hudson, who were all top-15 linemen according to Pro Football Focus.
The right side needs some work in the off-season because the left side is set if Penn is re-signed. Austin Howard was having a resurgent season at right tackle (18th ranked by Pro football Focus) after floundering at guard in 2014 and an injury that knocked him out mid-season. Howard actually started the season as second string to Menelik Watson–before a preseason injury cut short his ’15 season. The position should be set if both can remain healthy next year. J’Marcus Webb was a liability at right guard as was rookie, Jon Feliciano, when he played late in the season. That spot should be the focal point of O-line development during the offseason.
Another off-season job for GM Reggie McKenzie is finding a running back to join starter Latavius Murray. Murray was “The Man” in the backfield (266 att, 1,066 yds, 6 TD), but those numbers are hardly bell-cow quality. Murray was decent and had some explosive plays, but he’s no Adrian Peterson. He needs help. But the Raiders’ second-leading rusher was Carr, who had 138 yds. Fullback Jamize Olawale was next with 110 yds. That’s not going to cut it. Indeed, it’s pathetic. It’s the reason I believe adding another “factor back” is a major need for the Raiders offense.
The Raider’s defense was just the opposite of the offense. A horrific start in the first eight games was followed by progress and, eventually, was the primary reason the Raiders won football games. The team gave up an average of 26 ppg and 411 ypg in the first half of the season, but only 23 ppg and 315 ypg in the second half. Those second-half points include 3 return TDs and shorter fields to defend because of offensive turnovers.
Courtesy; 9news.com
Any success the Raiders had on defense starts and ends with DE/LB Khalil Mack, who just became the first player in NFL history to be named first-team All-Pro at two positions. Mack also finished second in the league with 15 sacks; was rated the best edge defender by Pro Football Focus; and will be in the running for Defensive Player of the Year. Mack is a beast against the run and pass and he’ll will be a pain for offensive linemen for years to come. (You like that Michael Schofield?!) My Mack man-crush runs deep and I’m sure Raider Nation agrees.
Mack helped the Raiders defensive line achieve a #4 ranking by Pro Football Focus, a line that is young and has some depth. Mario Edwards Jr. looks to be a major find in the 2nd Round; he can play inside and out. Dan Williams was a great FA signee. He’s a big-bodied run-stuffer who anchors the line. Second-year man, Justin “Jelly” Ellis, is built in the same mold as Williams and shows promise. Two other young guns, Denico Autry and Benson Mayowa, are active young players who proved to be valuable rotation guys. If the Raiders can add a quicker, penetrating defensive tackle, then the line will continue to punish QBs. The Raiders had 23 of their 38 sacks in the last 8 games.
Mr. Davis is smiling somewhere!
But…. The linebackers, an issue all year, lacked depth. Malcolm Smith wasn’t a perfect player, but he led the team in tackles and made several impact plays during the season. Overall he had 4 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and an interception. Smith, who knew Ken Norton Jr.’s system from Seattle, was on the field for almost every Raider snap. He was reliable when the Raiders couldn’t rely on anybody else at linebacker.
When it was apparent he couldn’t cover tight ends or RBs in the passing game Curtis Lofton was demoted from his starting middle linebacker spot. Neiron Ball, a rookie who started to play early on, was lost quickly with a season- ending injury. So in comes rookie Ben Heeney, who impressed during the second half of the season. Heeney is fast and quick to the ball, and he seems to have a knack for making plays. While Heeney is destined for a major role in ’16, the Raiders still need to add one starter and acquire depth through free agency and/or the draft.
Courtesy: Fox Sports
It frightens me to think about the Raiders’ secondary without Charles Woodson who, at 39, made second team All-Pro. Woodson was spectacular in coverage, having a hand in 8 turnovers in 2015. (Sorry Mack … Wood is still my all-time man-crush.) Nate Allen, penciled in as starter at free safety, only played in a handful of games. That means safety is a major question mark heading into next season.
Just as Woodson was indispensable at safety, so was David Amerson at cornerback. Amerson may have been a waiver-wire pickup early in the season, but he was a savior at cornerback–13th rated by Pro Football Focus. He led the league in passes defended and also had 4 interceptions and a Pick Six. Whatever Amerson didn’t do as a failed second-round pick in Washington he absolutely did in Oakland. Maybe he was just put in a position to succeed. If so, kudos to Norton and Del Rio.
T.J. Carrie, OK in 2015, fought nagging injuries all year and was moved to safety to cover Allen’s absence. Hopefully he will rebound next year to progress on his promising 2014 rookie year. As for D.J. Hayden and Neiko Thorpe…? Both played only because they had to play in the second half of the year. Upgrades are a must in for ’16.
So it looks as though the secondary will be the main focus for McKenzie in the off-season. That’s not new, though. It has been that way since he came aboard in 2012. There will be some nice CBs in free agency, players that could be instant upgrades, if Reg chooses wisely.
Special Teams MVP has to be Marquette King, who had a fabulous year. King had an astounding 40 punts downed inside the 20 with only 4 touchbacks, and he was a major factor in late-season wins against Denver and San Diego. Sebastian Janikowski was a little erratic, especially for him (21-16 FGS), but did hit 4-5 from over 50 yards. Steady long-snapper Jon Condo has been doing the job for so long that it seems as though he has been a Raider since Al Davis created the team in the 60’s. But, sentimentality aside, if only the Raiders had a true return man…. It was a Special Teams failure all season.
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In the end I am very impressed with the first year under Del Rio and his coordinators. With the exception of that mind boggling, first-game blow out, the Raiders never seemed like the Raiders of the past decade plus. The team was competitive in every game–even when they played poorly. The team seems to respond to Del Rio and he, in turn, seems to understand the pulse of his guys.
Norton and the defensive staff made necessary adjustments after an ugly start and improved over the season. Norton’s defense played with passion even though there was a talent shortage in the back seven. With Mack as the ultimate building block, and with the right pieces added, I think this defense will grow.
Offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave led the most prolific offense for the Raiders in five years. But the downswing at the end of the season is concerning. I chalk up much of that decline to youth, so hopefully all these guys will grow together moving forward. Carr is the key, but it would help to get a more consistent running game behind him.
I’m more confident in the Oakland Raiders future then I’ve been in a long time. That conclusion isn’t based on Kool-Aid-drinking fandom of membership in Raider Nation. It’s based on actual play, on the field, in 2015. Maybe it won’t happen because making that leap from OK to good is tough, but this team has some damn good pieces. Even Mr. Woodson has proclaimed the Raiders are in good hands.
If you can’t believe one of the greatest DBs of all time, who can you believe?
