Storyline: For the first time in a long while the Raiders have legitimate hope. Yes, there’s hope, but there’s still plenty to be concerned about.
The wait is finally over: NFL training camp season is upon us. That means live look-ins on various camps around the league on The NFL Network, the start of Hard Knocks on HBO (I love that show!), and Fantasy Football prep.
It also means the Oakland Raiders are preparing for their annual trek to Napa for the start of the 2015 season.
Over the past twelve years training camp is the only part of the season that has offered hope to the beleaguered members of Raider Nation. Once the season starts hope is flushed away pretty fast. But this year may finally be different.
Courtesy: justblogbaby.com
For the first time in a long while the Raiders have legitimate hope. This hope is based on the talented young core of recent draft picks, including Derek Carr, Khalil Mack, Gabe Jackson, Justin Ellis, Sio Moore, T.J. Carrie, and Amari Cooper. The team finally has a new head coach, Jack Del Rio, with a successful track record. These are not the Raiders of the last decade.
Even though the Nation has hope for a great turnaround there are still plenty of worries. This team has eleven wins in the three years of the Reggie McKenzie era and it lost the first ten games at the beginning of last year. Yes, there’s hope, but there’s still plenty to be concerned about.
Let’s talk about the worries heading into the season. These are the things that hold me back from being “Raiders Slappy.”
For the fourth straight year the Raiders will start the season with a new pair of starting cornerbacks. The only difference this year is that McKenzie decided to go with youth over free agent vets. That decision does not have me breathing any easier.
Courtesy: baysportsreport.com
The top four CBs on the roster are D.J. Hayden, T.J. Carrie, Keith McGill and Neiko Thorpe. These four guys are all young and have promise, but they only have about a dozen starts between them. I’m sure the Bengals’ A.J. Green is already licking his chops for the Week One matchup against this unproven Raider secondary.
I would have felt much more comfortable if McKenzie had re-signed last year’s starter at CB, Tarell Brown, a solid vet who played decently in 2014. That signing would have kept a bit of continuity in the secondary. But New England signed him a few weeks ago .. and that made me feel even worse. Whom do you trust more: Bill Belichick or our own man, Reggie? I don’t need to wait for an answer on that one.
Hayden showed a little more aggressiveness last year, but for the 12th pick in the Draft, it hasn’t been enough. Carrie and McGill look to be players, but they’re still only 7th and 4th round draft picks with little experience. Thorpe is an undrafted second-year player.
Courtesy: csnbayarea.com
I don’t mind the youth movement, but are all these young guys really going to break through all at once? Secondary coach Marcus Robertson better be as good as Charles Woodson says he is … because Marcus is going to really have to “coach ‘em up,” as they say.
A slow start worries me every year. From 2000–2002, and also in 2011, the Raiders won their opener and were competitive throughout the season. Every other year they lost the opener and … yeah … we all know the losing that followed. A somewhat fast start is critical for this young Raiders team, especially with a new coach at the helm. It will help build trust “in the Del Rio way.”
I’m not asking for the impossible here. All I ask is that the Raiders take at least a 2-2 record into Week 5 game against the Denver Broncos. Maybe Manning continues to slide and the O.co is rocking on that October Sunday. Maybe the Raiders take a 3-2 record into the Bye Week. Maybe the Silver Black finally makes some noise this season.
That’s my hope, but those opening four games come first. The Raiders have not had two straight home games to start the season since 1969, so the chance is there for a fast start. Hopefully they can cash in and not let the season slip away in September. That’s my worry, or fear, every single year: come October, the Raiders are playing for nothing. That’s simply depressing.
Courtesy: Grantland.com
I’m also worried about quarterback Derek Carr. Whaaaat!? Now hear me out on this one, please. It does seem strange that I’m worried about a franchise QB, a player who showed so much promise last year. But that’s why I’m worried: this “young, franchise QB thing” is new for Raider Nation. Not since the 70s and Kenny Stabler (R.I.P. Snake!) have the Raiders had a successful QB whom they’ve drafted.
Sadly, I was too young to really enjoy the Snake. The best Raider teams in my lifetime have been led by veteran QBs, such as Jim Plunkett, Jeff Hostetler, and Rich Gannon. The young Raider QBs I’ve pinned hopes on include Marc Wilson, Todd Marinovich, and JaMarcus Russell. Wow! Those are three, disheartening names to think about. So let’s move on … and pronto!
Even though Carr showed many good qualities in 2014, I still worry that he won’t take that next step this season. There have been enough detractors out there, critics who aren’t quite ready to jump on the Carr bandwagon. That only increases my concerns.
Just this week ESPN Insider Andrew Healy wrote an article disputing Mike Sando’s rating of Carr as published in Sando’s 2015 QB Tier Rankings. Healy explained: “Carr appears to be a cautionary tale of focusing on the wrong numbers.” Healy felt so strongly about Carr’s overrated ranking that he dedicated an entire column to the topic. He must be a Chiefs’ fan.
Healy dives into metrics, such as DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average) and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards above Replacement), and compares Carr’s performance to other QBs outside the top ten. Carr’s stats were much more in-line with Trent Edwards’ and Brandon Weeden’s numbers than with Joe Flacco’s or Russell Wilson’s numbers. I’m guessing the majority of Raider Nation is on Charles Barkley’s side in this case: Metrics are just “turrible.”
Courtesy: justblogbaby.com
To dispute the metrics crowd for a minute I would like to produce a few facts in support of Derek Carr. Through the first nine games the Raiders were on pace for the worst running offense in 25 years. And the Raiders defense gave up the most points in franchise history. Carr faced the toughest slate of pass defenses in the league (per Bill Barnwell, Grantland). Carr’s top targets were two undrafted receivers, Andre Holmes and Rod Streater. And, by the way, Streater was out for the year after three games. How about those metrics!
That little spiel was the Raiders Slappy in me, for sure. But I watched Carr for sixteen games and some preseason action. He certainly passed the eye test and, as the season went on, this rookie QB became the least of my worries. The rest of the team usually broke down way before Carr did.
But I’m still worried about Derek Carr in 2015. Maybe it’s because I’ve never experienced the joys of a franchise QB. How does that work, Packer or Colt fans?
Having a franchise QB changes the Raider’s fortunes. My inner Raider pessimist can’t help but worry if he’s the real deal. I do believe Carr can be the man in Oak-town…but I’m still going to worry my ass off about it.
Just like the secondary. And just like next September.
