Storyline: Since 2000, about 10% of those selected in the NBA Draft have become impact players. While “upside” is limited, the Golden State Warriors have drafted more than their share.
The 2015 NBA season is over and the Golden State Warriors proved to be the best team from start to finish. The Warriors blitzed the NBA with their “pace and space” offense, while also being one of the best defensive teams on the court.
Golden State has also dominated the league in another vital area over the past few years, the NBA draft.
Courtesy: Sackingsnation.com
Dominating the NBA draft is no small feat. Actually, it seems to be a complete crapshoot when you look at the actual number of impact players that the NBA Draft produces.
So let’s look back at all the NBA drafts since 2000 to see which players qualify as “All-Start caliber.” The results are a bit surprising.
In the past 15 drafts a total of 84 players are All-Star caliber in my estimation. These players didn’t have to be selected to an All-Star team, but they did have to show potential to be selected one day. I gave some players the benefit of the doubt–especially the younger ones–and I still only came up with 84 players in 15 years of drafting.
When you take 84 players over 15 seasons that averages out to only 5.6 All Star-quality players per year. There are 60 players selected in each draft, meaning that less then 10% of the players picked (9.3% to be specific) will make a dramatic impact on their teams. That’s after all the draft camps, individual workouts, and non-stop analyses … for a slightly better than 9% chance at choosing the right guy. I’m positive that on draft nights Jay Bilas loves the “upside” of more than 9% of the players discussed.
And that 9% I calculated may be a bit too high. See what I mean.
Jabari Parker (Photo courtesy sportal.com.au)
2013 and 2014 drafts: For those two drafts I tagged nine players whom I thought could be All-Stars someday … or, at least, could make that type of impact. From last year’s draft only Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Marcus Smart, and Elfrid Payton made my cut. From the 2013 class I think Victor Oladipo, Nerlens Noel, Michael Carter-Williams (MCW), Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Rudy Gobert are players who can live up to their potential. Those selections may be too generous in numbers. Or I might have left out some players who will be late bloomers. But, either way, history shows that the NBA won’t have a large number of impact players coming from any draft class or two.
2012 draft: That draft produced only one player–Anthony Davis–who could be an all-timer. Bradley Beal, Damon Lillard, and Andre Drummond are right on the cusp of All-Stardom. I also included Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green because they both just contributed greatly to the Warriors championship run. Part of the reason Bob Myers just won NBA Executive of the Year for Golden State is impact draft picks. Barnes and Green are only the start of Myers run good luck streak.
Kyrie Irving (Photo courtesy Sporting News)
2011 draft: In 2011, three players chosen have already played major roles in the last few title runs: Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, and Kawhi Leonard. Already All-Stars this trio should continue to be heard from in May and June for at least a couple more years. The next five guys may be a bit of a stretch but, in the draft tradition of “upside,” I included them on my list: Tristan Thompson, Brandon Knight, Kemba Walker, Nikola Vucevic and Jimmy Butler.
2010 draft: Three solid stars from the 2010 class include John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Paul George. I would say Greg Monroe, Gordon Hayward, and Eric Bledsoe also qualify by my estimations. Yes, my estimations are really only my opinion. I’ll spare the reader from labeling it an “expert opinion” but, even if I debated each draft with another “expert,” there would only be a few changes as to who qualifies as an All-Star.
James Harden (Photo courtesy Denver Post)
2009 draft: That was an historical draft with three MVP-level players selected: Steph Curry, James Harden, and Blake Griffin. Myers grabbed Curry with the 7th pick, which is way down the draft list for a league MVP. This was also a deep draft with players like DeMar DeRozan, Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, and Taj Gibson making their mark in the league. But notice that two of these players (Jennings, Holiday) have been traded already. Not only is the draft a huge crapshoot, but teams also need patience to see their picks develop. One thing most NBA teams are not equipped with is patience–unless you happen to run the Philadelphia 76ers. Sixer’s management has shown a ginormous amount of patience as they field non-competitive teams year after year in an effort to collect “assets” that may win someday…may win someday, I reiterate. How are those reputable fans in Philly enjoying their team’s patient approach?
2008 draft: ’08 brought us All-NBA contributors and MVP candidates in Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook. It was also a hue “big man” draft (pun intended): Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert, Serge Ibaka, and DeAndre Jordan were all selected in 2008. You may never again see this many effective big man from one draft, especially with the way “small ball” is winning in the NBA right now. I also included Goran Dragic in my All-Star list; he was a steal in the 2nd Round for the Suns. Too bad the Suns traded him … twice! That’s just one of the many reasons the Suns haven’t been to the playoffs in a few years.
Kevin Durant (Photo courtesy Sports Illustrated)
2007 draft: Kevin Durant was the ultimate prize in the 2007 draft. The best player besides Durant has been Marc Gasol, who was nabbed by the L.A. Lakers in the 2nd Round. Gasol, of course, was later traded for his brother Pau, helping the Lakers to two NBA titles. However, Memphis has been reaping the benefits ever since: the younger Spaniard has been one of the league’s best centers. Al Hoford, Mike Conley, and Joakim Noah round out this weak draft class.
2006 draft: The 2006 draft may have been the weakest since 2000 in terms of major impact. LaMarcus Aldridge is the only consistent All-Star left from this class. Brandon Roy was another great pick by Portland, but injuries have already led to an early retirement. Rajon Rondo easily has All-Star talent, but he is an MVP head case who just pushed his way out of Dallas. The only other player I included was the always solid Paul Milsap, who was another 2nd Round steal.
2005 draft: By far, Chris Paul is the best player still delivering from the 2005 draft. At one point Deron Williams was considered CP3’s peer, but DWill’s days in Brooklyn have been very mediocre. Monte Ellis is still going strong, but Andrew Bogut, Andrew Bynum and Danny Granger careers have been really slowed by injuries. All were once on the verge of fulfilling vast potential, but injuries have eroded their skills. I also included David Lee on this list because he once made an All-NBA 3rd Team. Yes, really! (I’m telling the truth! Please look it up.)
Andre Iguodala (Photo courtesy basketballwallpapers.com)
2004 draft: Only Dwight Howard, Andre Iguodala, and Al Jefferson are still going strong from the 2004 draft. Not only are these the only All-Star impact players left from that draft, but I counted only 10 other draft-night selections who are still in the league. That fact makes me feel old.
2003 draft: 2003 just might go down as the best-ever draft with four potential Hall of Famers in LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Bosh. These dudes were four of the first five picks. Who was the 5th, you ask? That would be Darko Milicic, picked by the Detroit Pistons. Today, neither Darko nor former Piston’s GM Joe Dumars are in the league. And that’s not a coincidence, either. David West and Kyle Korver round out the top players from 2003.
2002 draft: Yao Ming was a stud until the big guy’s legs blew out on him. Jay Williams showed great NBA promise until his motorcycle blew out on him. This just in: “Injuries really suck!” Amare Stoudemire would definitely agree and he’s also on my impact list. Tayshaun Prince and Carlos Boozer were nice picks and they are still going, I guess. I was going to add ‘going strong,’ but that would be pure embellishment.
Pau Gasol (Photo courtesy thewaiverwire.com)
2001 and 2000 drafts: Tony Parker and Pau Gasol were, by far, the gems of the 2001 draft. Tyson Chandler, Richard Jefferson, and Joe Johnson were other impact players. At least that was better than the 2000 draft, which produced only Kenyon Martin, Jamal Crawford, and Michael Redd. The 2000 draft is on par with the 2006 draft–by far the worst of the new millennium.
Overall Assessment
Running through the past 15 years of the draft you can see how little chance there really is for your team to “win the lottery.” True impact players can change a team’s fortunes, but the odds of picking the correct player are not very high — basically less than 10%.
So, not only is the league chasing the Warriors on the court, but in the draft room as well.
Good luck to all the GMs out there on Thursday night. You’ll need it!
