Predicting Football Stars is a Guessing Game

, ,

Written by Charles Kruzits, Morristown NJ. Follow Charles on Twitter @kruzindirty

Every February top high school football players, the Blue Chippers, stand in front of crowds and cameras to make much-awaited announcements: where they’ll play college football.

While ESPN and other media outlets proclaim their greatness, year after year many top-rated prospects fall from grace: they either don’t start or star, and many fall into anonymity.

But, for every player that fails to live up to lofty expectations, there’s a kid who’s under the radar. He signs without hoopla and, then, goes on to become a household name.

Here’s my list of guys like that—players who didn’t receive national recognition, but then went on to exceed expectations.

Courtesy: cbssports.com

Courtesy: cbssports.com

Elvis Dumervil: Class of 2002, 99th ranked DE Dumervil was not highly-sought when he was signed by Louisville. Not the prototype defensive end (at 5’11” and 258 lbs.), he went on to notch 20 sacks during an All-America junior campaign. But NFL scouts still weren’t convinced: he drifted to 4th Round of the 2006 NFL Draft, the eighth DE selected. The outcome? Elvis is now approaching his 10th NFL season. He has had six seasons with 9.5 sacks or more, including two years with 17 sacks. Dumervil, who’s coming off one of his best seasons, could surpass the numbers put up by two of the best-ever sack artists, Simeon Rice and Derrick Thomas.

Patrick Willis: Class of 2003, 60th ranked IL Willis was a relatively unknown linebacker when he came out of Hollow Rock TN. He chose Ole’ Miss and tackled just about everything during his years in Oxford. During his junior and senior campaigns Willis notched 365 tackles—21 for losses—6 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. Willis won awards, too, including SEC Defensive Player of the Year, the Jack Lambert Award, and the Dick Butkus Award. He was twice-named All-America. Originally considered a late-first round draft pick, Willis’ performance at The NFL Combine rocketed him up the Draft Boards. He was selected 11th overall by the San Francisco 49ers. Since then, this Three-Star linebacker coming out of high school has had a great pro career. He has been named an AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year, a seven-time Pro Bowler, and a five-time First Team All-Pro.

Courtesy: sportsworldreport.com

Courtesy: sportsworldreport.com

Matt Forte: Class of 2004, Unranked Forte, one of the best all-around running backs in the NFL today, wasn’t rated coming out of high school. Only home-state Tulane showed interest. Forte signed with the Green Wave but he didn’t set the world on fire—at least not during his first three years. He rushed for a little over 2000 yards and 15 scores through his junior year. Forte’s senior campaign was different…and better: he racked up 2,127 yards, 23 touchdowns, and averaged 5.9 yds. a carry. He gained national headlines, too, by becoming a semifinalist for the Maxwell Award and the Doak Walker Award. That attention elevated Forte to a 2nd Round pick in the NFL Draft. Forte has gone on to play in at least 15 games in six NFL seasons; and he has rushed for more than 1,000 yards in five of those years.

Marshal Yanda: Class of 2005, Unranked Yanda is a Super Bowl champion, a four-time Pro Bowler, and a three-time NFL All Pro. Yet he was unranked coming out of high school. A native Iowan, Yanda played his first two seasons for North Iowa Area Community College before signing with the Iowa Hawkeyes. Yanda provided versatility during his first two years in Iowa City, playing tackle and guard. He was Iowa’s MVP during his senior campaign. He also captained the team. The Baltimore Ravens picked him in the 3rd Round of the 2007 NFL Draft. He has been a starter ever since–starting a total of 104 games in 8 seasons, playing RG, LG, and RT.

Courtesy: nypost.com

Courtesy: nypost.com

Julian Edelman: Class of 2006, Unranked Before hoisting the Super Bowl Trophy and catching passes from Tom Brady, Edelman made his mark throwing the ball. Edelman led an undefeated team during his senior year at Woodside High School (CA). Edelman spent a year at the College of San Mateo before migrating to Kent State. Edelman started three years at QB for the Golden Flashes. A dual-threat player, he threw for nearly 5,000 yards and rushed for 22 touchdowns. The New England Patriots noticed that versatility and made Edelman a 7th Round pick. In 2013 Edelman proved his worth after Wes Welker left to play with Peyton Manning in Denver. Since then Edelman has hauled in 197 passes, gained more than 2,000 yards receiving, and has scored 10 touchdowns. His Super Bowl XLIX performance against the Seahawks was notable. Against a stingy defense he caught 9 passes for 102 yards and scored a crucial touchdown.

Russell Wilson: Class of 2007, Unranked Coming out of high school a whopping total of 66 quarterbacks were listed ahead of this dual-threat, dual-sport standout … who’s now a pro star. Wilson was overlooked mostly because of his undersize. He ended up at North Carolina State, then Wisconsin, while also juggling a baseball career. In college Wilson engineered 31 football wins, threw 109 touchdown passes, and rushed for 23 scores. But even though Wilson’s ability to elude pass rushers and spread the field were obvious, NFL scouts weren’t overly impressed. Five QBs were selected ahead of Wilson in the 2012 NFL Draft. Since taking over the starting reigns in Seattle Wilson has won 36 games and appeared in two Super Bowls. One of the best was overlooked–twice.

Courtesy: sports-kings.com

Courtesy: sports-kings.com

Lane Johnson: Class of 2008, Unranked Johnson started his college career at Kilgore College, where he played QB and TE. He was offered by Oklahoma and redshirted his first season in Norman. He later played sparingly at TE and DE. Johnson then made his mark–at OT. He started 23 games, garnering All-Big 12 honors his senior year. Johnson wowed NFL scouts with his footwork and agility. That athleticism earned him all the way to the 4th overall selection in the 2013 NFL Draft (Philadelphia Eagles). Since joining the NFL Johnson has been the Eagles’ starting RT, starting 24 games in two seasons. A soon-to-be LT (when Jason Peters retires), Johnson is an anchor for Chip Kelly’s high-powered offense.

Khalil Mack: Class of 2009, Unranked How did Mack get away? Mack migrated from Florida to (of all places) Buffalo. In his senior season at Fort Pierce (FL) High Mack registered 140 tackles, 9 sacks, and 8 tackles for loss. Despite earning 3rd team All-State status Mack had only two scholarship offers—from Buffalo and Liberty. He picked the Bulls and became a star. A four-year starter, Mack’s abilities were displayed in the Bulls’ 2013 game against Ohio State. Playing outside linebacker, he intercepted a pass from Braxton Miller and outran tacklers for a 47 yard TD. He combined that play with two sacks against the Buckeyes. From then on, offenses concentrated on keeping Mack out of backfield. As a four-year starter Mack amassed 327 tackles, 28.5 sacks, forced 5 fumbles, and had 4 interceptions. He earned First Team All-MAC honors three times, was MAC Defensive Player of the Year, and made First Team All-America his senior year. Mack went from a high school unknown, to collegiate star, to the 5th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.

Courtesy: orlandosentinel.com

Courtesy: orlandosentinel.com

Blake Bortles: Class of 2010, 44th ranked QB A three-year starter for Oviedo High (FL), Bortles signed with the first college team to offer him a scholarship, Central Florida. After redshirting his freshman year—and playing sparingly the next—Bortles converted a quiet program into a national power. As a two-year starter Bortles won 22 of 27 games and back-to-back bowl games. Known as a ‘gamer’ Bortles shines in big games. He threw for 572 yards, rushed for 172, and scored 7 touchdowns in bowl victories. During his Orlando career Bortles threw 56 TD passes and rushed for 15 TDs. Standing 6’5 and tipping the scales at 230+ Bortles looks and plays the part, giving NFL scouts and GMs much to admire. Bortles skipped his senior year and jumped to the NFL. Needing a signal caller the Jacksonville Jaguars made him the 3rd overall pick in the NFL Draft. Bortles, who was rushed to the field in the third game, experienced rookie year ups-and-downs. A major bright spot came late in the season. Bortles rallied the Jaguars from a three touchdown deficit to score a 25-24 win. Bortles has a bright future in Jacksonville.

Randy Gregory: Class of 2011, Unranked Gregory, original from Jacksonville, FL, moved around a lot during youth—from Florida, to Tennessee, to Alabama, to Ohio, to Missouri and, then, to Indiana. Standing 6’6 Gregory was always noticed, but his talent wasn’t as obvious–at least not at the start. A RB during Pop Warner days Gregory used  athleticism to evade defenders. But, as he grew, Gregory shifted positions: he put his hand on the ground, making a specialty of disrupting offenses. But success didn’t come immediately or easily. He didn’t excel academically and injuries kept him off the field. He started his college career at a two-year school, but problems persisted: he broke his wrist and then cracked his fibula. Despite those setbacks Bo Pelini at Nebraska came calling. That was good for Gregory and great for the Huskers. Gregory became a feared rusher in Lincoln, facing double-teams, chop blocks, and chips week-in and week-out. Gregory registered 17.5 sacks during his two seasons in the Big Ten. That got him considered for numerous awards, including the Nagurski, Lombardi, and Bednarik awards. Scouts predict Gregory will be off the board early in this year’s NFL Draft. NFL front offices value an edge rusher with an ever-growing frame.

Courtesy: indystar.com

Courtesy: indystar.com

Tevin Coleman: Class of 2012, 37th ranked RB Prized running backs boast eye-popping statistics. Coleman, who has spent time as a RB, WR, CB, and kick-punt returner, didn’t have those numbers in high school. Instead, he was a versatile performer at Tinley Park (IL), enough to earn the 2011 Southtown Star Player of the Year. Still, though, he was rated only as a Three-Star prospect–good enough to get multiple offers from Big Ten teams. Coleman decided to take his game to Bloomington, IN. Slowly, but surely, Coleman got onto the field for IU and showed coaches and fans what he could do. During his sophomore year he carried the rock 131 times for 958 yards and 12 touchdowns. He developed a knack for breaking off big runs. Last year Coleman opened up the season with a 247 yard performance against Indiana State and he maintained that torrid pace throughout the season. He ran for 200 yards in four games and for at least 100 yards in 11 games. Against Rutgers and Ohio State Coleman netted 535 yards on 59 carries. He scored four times. Coleman ended the season finishing 7th in voting for the coveted Heisman Trophy. Coleman has scouts salivating. He’s expected to be one of the first RBs selected in this year’s draft.

 

So…. From Patrick Willis (possible Hall of Famer) to Julian Edelman (quarterback turned Super Bowl-winning WRer), we learn that talent comes in all shapes and sizes.

It often goes unrecognized, too.  Who’s next?

About Fan Submission

Articles written by The Sports Column Fans on any topic of their choosing. Each submission is edited and published the same as any of our Columnists. Want to submit your own sports column article? Get Started Now



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

CAPTCHA