What’s the biggest news in college football this year? It’s not College Playoff, believe it or not. It’s the way perennial football powers are being trumped by schools they used to thump consistently.
Come January many of the presumed kings of collegiate football will be sidelined, out of the playoffs. The list includes ten of the biggest names in college football history: Oklahoma (17), Notre Dame (22), Michigan (16), USC (17), Nebraska (11), Florida (5), Georgia (5), Texas (9), Miami (9), and Penn State (7). The numbers in parenthesis, you ask? Those are the number of major college football championships won by each school since 1936 (various rating services sometimes crown different champs).
Courtesy: thesilversword.com
The glory days are in jeopardy. Three “power schools” fired head coaches at season’s end this year (Florida, Michigan, and Nebraska), and five other schools weren’t ranked in the most recent AP Top 25 (Texas, Miami, Penn St., Southern Cal, and Notre Dame). In fact, none of those schools received a single vote in last week’s poll. The ranked schools—Georgia, Oklahoma, and Nebraska—were down the list, ranked #15, 18, and 25, respectively (AP, Week of Dec 1).
Those are astounding outcomes for a group that includes many of the all-time winningest programs in college football history. Consider this: Michigan is #1, ND #2, Texas #4, and Nebraska #5 in all-time wins. And the national kingpins? Ten years ago (2004) USC was ranked #1 in the polls (AP). Twenty years ago (1994) it was Nebraska sitting on that perch (AP).
Oh, how times have changed!
For sure, several of the long-time “bigs” are still in the hunt this year (e.g., Alabama, Ohio State), but the bigger news is that perennial also-rans are competing, too, most notably TCU (AP #4), Kansas State (#9), and Mississippi State (#10).
How have those schools done over time? MSU has lost more games than it has won historically, ranking it last in the SEC as measured by all-time winning percentage. Kansas State, also ranked last in winning percentage in its conference, would have to go 12-0 for over a decade to get to a .500 all-time winning record. Only TCU in this threesome has an all-time winning record (about 54%). TCU has won about 600 games, but that’s around 300 fewer games than Michigan, the top all-time winner. It would take about thirty 10-win seasons—that’s right, 30 seasons—for TCU to catch up with the Wolverines … assuming U of M never won another football game.
These numbers show the size of the gap between the once mighty and the new generation of collegiate football contenders. It’s the BIG story in college football today.
And it’s not a story anybody could have predicted. The prevailing wisdom—and the story getting all the press—is how the big schools seek to become bigger, to have more say in how programs are run. Schools need more money, more autonomy to remain competitive, so the argument goes. Last year, for example, the public SEC schools spent an average of about $164,000 per athlete—12 times more than what those schools spent on “regular” students. To many, the SEC is the gold standard in college football. So spend more, like the SEC, and get more results. Really?
Courtesy: Washington Monthly
Does money make a difference in outcomes on the field? When reporters for USA TODAY SPORTS analyzed collegiate sports income and spending patterns at public schools from 2006-2011 here’s what they found. About ten schools spent over $100 million a year on sports, but most of those programs weren’t at the top of the football polls. In fact, numbers #1, 3, and 4 in spending—Texas, Michigan, and Florida—have struggling teams. Penn State and Tennessee do, too (#6 and 8, respectively). Data also show that new contenders, like Mississippi State, spent half as much per year on athletics as did conference rival, Alabama. The same percentage difference in athletic spending applies to Kansas State vis-à-vis conference foe Oklahoma.
How and why, then, are newcomers competing so well? To get a handle on the answer I recently studied the situation at Mississippi State—a team that was ranked #1 for a good share of the season, having rocketing from out of the polls to top ranking, the fastest to do so in college football history.
What did I find? I found great coaching combined with a strategy for attracting “just the right” players to Starkville. MSU isn’t going to be able to compete with schools like Auburn, Georgia, Florida, and Alabama, other things being equal, so MSU had to change the equation. They attract high potential kids (not always the 4- and 5-star recruits) to a rural environment that suits players’ personalities and preferences. (MSU’s recruiting classes were ranked #30 in 2012 and #26 in 2013 by Rivals.com.) Coaches then do what we expect coaches to do: develop football players.
It’s nothing fancy, but everything about it breeds success. And it has turned a perennial loser into a top-tier team. Credit Dan Mullin and his staff.
Courtesy: sportslogos.net
The same thing is happening at K-State. It’s not possible to talk about KSU football without recognizing the incredible capacity shown by Bill Snyder and his staff. Once a joke of the Big 8 (before it was the Big 12), KSU fans know what it is like before Snyder took over. When Jim Dickey was coach (1978-85) KSU won 29% of its games. It was even worse under Stan Parrish (1986-88): .076 (no misprint). When Ron Prince was in charge (2006-08) the Wildcats still lost more than they won. But under two stints with Snyder—1989-2005, 2009-current—KSU has won 66% of the time, 2 of every 3 games.
In 21 seasons Snyder’s teams have accumulated a third of the school’s all-time wins—at a place that has been playing football since 1896. Incredible! And it’s happening in Manhattan KS, a place that’s hardly a magnet for football players. And how about this? A 75-year old coach is yielding that level of success.
The same recipe appears to be place at TCU, a team that’s not only a perennial also-ran, but one that also got the run-around. TCU, unlike Baylor, was not invited to join newly reshaped Big 12 when the Southwest Conference (TCU’s one-time conference affiliation) folded in the mid-1990s. For nearly two decades the Horned Frogs migrated from conference to conference: Western Athletic (1996-2000), Conference USA (2001-2004), Mountain West (2005-2011), and, finally, back to once-rejecting Big 12 (in 2012), but only after TCU joined, then reneged, on its commitment to become a member of the now-defunct Big East (football) Conference.
While TCU has had its moments in football over the years—mostly in the 1930s with players like the legendary Sammy Baugh —the recent past is especially notable. The highlight was the 2010 season when TCU went undefeated, finished the year ranked #2 AP (#1 in one poll), and beat favored Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.
Courtesy: archives.lansingstatejournal.com
That’s high standing for a private school with 10,000 students, a school that labors in a football-crazed state dominated historically by Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech—big public schools with gigantic alumni networks. But (once again) we find that coaching makes the difference, and the coaching record at TCU is eerily similar to K-State’s situation.
Jim Shofner, head coach from 1974-76, won only two games (.061 winning percentage, no misprint). F.A. Dry (1977-82) lost 4 of every 5 games played. Jim Wacker and Pat Sullivan, head coaches consecutively from 1983-1997, won about 40% of the time. Then things changed in a big way. Dennis Franchione went 25-10 from 1998-2000. Gary Patterson, the current head coach, has won 10 or more games ten times since taking over the program.
Patterson’s teams play fast, hard, and smart with an exciting offense and a sturdy defense. The Frogs seem to play their best when everything’s on the line, as they did last week against Texas when they walloped the ‘Horns, 48-10, in Austin.
As Paul Myerberg put it recently in USA TODAY: “With a dynamic offense in tow with an always aggressive defense, the Horned Frogs have created what may be the perfect formula for the College Football Playoff era.” The record says he’s right. Currently ranked #3 by the College Football Playoff Committee the Frogs are a huge favorite to beat conference cellar-dweller Iowa State at home this weekend (TCU -34, ESPN 12/4). Then it will be off to play in the national semi-finals.
Texas watches. So does A&M. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, too. TCU will be dancing.
Improbable. Historic. Paradigm-shifting.
Let’s face it: in the face of gobs of money, loads of alumni donors, 100-thousand seat stadiums, and all that goes with the pro-like college game these days, we’re witnessing something quite refreshing, something money can’t buy. It’s nothing snazzy or magical, either. It’s good coaching with players who fit the system.
How simple, but how elusive, especially for all the places that think success comes by way of getting big donors to write big checks. Money certainly helps, but money can’t buy wins. Welcome to the new normal in college football.
The best part about it? One-time underdogs are on top.
Hey, this is America, after all.
Courtesy: Facebook
ENDNOTE: Enjoy all of it, Lauren Burns. Go Frogs! (Lauren Burns, center, with Traci and Megan Burns, left and right, respectively.)
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