Courtesy: Washington Post
With the Ravens sitting in last place in the AFC North and dropping their last two divisional contests, today’s game against the Tennessee Titans is a must-win heading into the bye week.
Baltimore can’t afford to lose any more momentum with the Pittsburgh Steelers on fire offensively and playing the New York Jets this afternoon and the Cleveland Browns sharing a tie for first place atop the division.
The Titans are kind of team the Ravens have fared well against thus far in 2014. They have struggled to string together much of anything on either side of the football. They feature a young quarterback in Zach Mettenberger who is still figuring out what it means to be an NFL quarterback. Baltimore, being at home this week, could use this game as a springboard to their confidence going forward.
If the Ravens expect to win today, here are three keys to victory:
1. The pass rush from the front seven masks a weak, depleted secondary.
Cornerback Jimmy Smith was recently placed on injured reserve after undergoing season-ending foot surgery. Since then, Baltimore has attempted to put a band-aid on that wound by cutting Dominique Franks and Chykie Brown and replacing them with current or former practice squad players. It also doesn’t help that Lardarius Webb hasn’t been the same No. 21 Ravens fans are accustomed to seeing as he has looked out of place and locked into the backfield instead of eyeing and following his receiver.
The secondary’s struggles haven’t just come at the cornerback position either.
Baltimore has struggled to find consistency at the back end with their safeties as well. Matt Elam is missing too many tackles. Terrance Brooks is a rookie who is still learning how to play the position at the highest level. One bright spot has been Will Hill being inserted after his six-gamre suspension as he has brought a little more of a physical presence.
That being said, the Ravens’ pass rush should be active today, especially at home. Elvis Dumervil in particular has been exceptional at the friendly confines with 5.5 of his team-leading 8.0 sacks coming at M&T Bank Stadium. With a young quarterback and team largely devoid of weapons, expect Dean Pees to dial up blitzes using stunts up the middle to get in the face of Mettenberger as well as pressure on the outside from Terrell Suggs and Dumervil.
2. Joe Flacco plays like he did against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers… and not like he did against the Steelers or Cincinnati Bengals the last two weeks.
While it can be expected that Flacco will be on pace to set an NFL record each time he suits up, playing a softer opponent like the Tennessee Titans should be beneficial to his stat line and his team.
The Titans are 17th against the pass and while that isn’t awful Baltimore has enough speed on the outside to stretch this defense and create big plays through the air.
There are two primary targets Flacco will have to get involved in this game and stay on that course for the rest of the season: Steve Smith Sr. and Owen Daniels.
While their contributions haven’t been null and void lately — Smith Sr. has been drawing more attention in his direction since his explosive start — it is clear Flacco struggles when he can’t get these two the football consistently through the air.
Whether it is through quick slants or deep posts to Smith Sr. or seam and deep out routes to Daniels, Flacco needs to get these guys involved early and often as the other targets he has had to rely on haven’t been as productive.
Sure, Torrey Smith had a nice, long touchdown reception last week in Pittsburgh, but his struggles with gaining separation and getting open due to average route-running has caused Flacco to hold on to the football longer than desired. While Smith isn’t alone in failing to gain separation, this has led to more sacks and stalled drives.
If Flacco can get these guys involved early and often, but also use his outlets of the backfield — Kyle Juszczyk and Justin Forsett — look for Baltimore to cruise offensively.
3. Baltimore establishes and sticks to the running game they seemed to have abandoned too soon in recent weeks.
The Titans come into today’s contest 29th against the run and Baltimore has given up on their running game far too soon in recent weeks. Something has to give.
Baltimore is 9th in the league in rushing, but that number could be much higher given the recent circumstances of their last few weeks.
Forsett has been efficient and has not only help in pass protection, but has been a slippery and efficient back for the Ravens thus far. Rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro has provided a powerful option in short yardage and goal-to-go situations.
Dividing the carries among these two — Forsett between the 20s and Taliaferro in the red zone — could help create more opportunities in play action.
The key is how often the Ravens will stick to the run.
Baltimore has given up on the run when they are down far too early and often. This isn’t the toughest game remaining on the schedule, but establishing a running game and pouding opponents is easier on the offensive line and tires out opponents for the fourth quarter.
The Ravens need a game where they can restablish just how improved they are from their 32nd ranking on the ground last season and this could be the catalyst heading into the bye week.
Score Prediction:
Baltimore Ravens — 37
Tennessee Titans — 20
