The Big Ten was college football king when I was a kid. Two legendary coaches–Bo Schembechler (Michigan) and Woody Hayes (Ohio St.)–reigned supreme. It was about Michigan, Ohio State, and The Rose Bowl. Win “the game” at season’s end and go to Pasadena. Annual ritual it was. Schedule it. From 1968 to 1982 OSU or Michigan either won or shared the conference title.
Courtesy: pinterest.com
Today it’s different. The Rose Bowl—that historic battle between the best of the Midwest and the best of the West Coast—isn’t structured that way anymore. The “Power 5” Conferences reign as football overlords. The SEC—not the Big Ten—is king. One SEC division, the West, is the best. Nick Saban and … you fill in the blank … hold sway. And there’s nothing close to “The Ten Year War” (’69-78) of Woody v. Bo.
The College Playoff has changed college’s football landscape in plenty of ways. What it means to win a conference championship may be the biggest change. “Losers” have a say, too, as we’re seeing this year: multiple SEC West teams may be invited to football’s Final Four. That certainly speaks to SEC supremacy, but it also says a lot about altered conference dynamics.
The SEC West today stands in contrast to the Big Ten of my youth. The Big Ten used to be “the Big Two and Little 8.” Michigan and OSU would beat conference teams routinely on the way to “their game.” The same thing happened in the Big 8 with Oklahoma’s Barry Switzer and Nebraska’s Tom Osborne.
Weak conferences with one or two larger-than-life teams don’t work well in today’s environment. That’s because the frame of reference has changed. Winning the conference title isn’t enough. With the College Football Playoff it’s all about advancing nationally. A competitive conference gives teams an edge. The SEC shows why. The Big 10 says something else.
Courtesy: espn.go.com
Everybody knew the stakes involved when Big Ten’s pre-season favorite, Michigan State, played Oregon earlier this year. MSU needed to win to stay in the national championship conversation. The reason: the Spartan’s weak non-conference slate (Jacksonville St., Wyoming, Eastern Michigan) coupled with a generally weak Big Ten schedule. If the Spartans lost to UO they’d need to win out and get help from teams in other conferences. Well, MSU lost the game and (now) they’re exactly where wags predicted they’d be.
While it boosts Spartan Pride when MSU beats Michigan (as it has done in six of the past seven years), it doesn’t help the Spartans nationally when the Wolverines aren’t good. It doesn’t help the Spartans nationally when perennial power Penn State struggles. And it really doesn’t help the Spartans nationally when multiple Big Ten teams lose to Mid-American Conference teams—Indiana to Bowling Green, Northwestern to Northern Illinois, and Purdue to Central Michigan—as they all did this year, with two of those losses coming on Big Ten home fields.
A generally weak Big Ten is also hurting Ohio State. The Buckeyes hired Urban Meyer to compete for national championships: to do in Columbus what he did at Florida. Hiring Meyer shook up the Big Ten. Gritty. Determined. Successful. No nonsense. That’s Urban Meyer. And it didn’t take long for Meyer to turn heads.
Big Ten coaches aren’t supposed to approach players who’ve given verbal agreements to attend other schools. But Myer approached, and then signed, players who had given “verbals” to other schools (Wisconsin, Penn St., Notre Dame, and Michigan State). Coaches complained. The conference get involved. But Urban kept his players. Then the Buckeyes went undefeated.
Courtesy: usatoday.com
But Meyer has a problem he didn’t have in Gainesville.The SEC is perennially tough. It’s simply not that way in the Big Ten. Case in point: while OSU will be a prohibitive favorite to beat Michigan in November, winning won’t mean a thing nationally. Losing, on the other hand, would end OSU’s national aspirations (assuming they’re undefeated in the Big Ten going into that game). There’s no room for error: to have a chance, OSU must win out.
It’s the same situation at Michigan State. The only Big Ten school ranked in the Top 10 (as of Oct 26) MSU will drop out of the national conversation if any of these things happen: if the Spartans lose to OSU on November 8; if MSU loses to other teams remaining on its schedule (Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State); or if State loses the Big Ten Championship Game. Again, there’s no room for error—no room because of schedule strength.
The picture is different in he SEC West, where strength goes against strength each conference Saturday. That’s why Mississippi remained in the Top 10 after losing to LSU. The Rebels are now among the national “1-loss teams” competing to get into football’s Final Four.
Neil Greenberg’s analysis in The Washington Post offers what may be the best explanation about why it’s important to have consistently strong conference competition. Greenberg evaluated 1-loss teams using the Simple Rating System from Sports-Reference.com. He writes: “Michigan State is 13.7 points per game better than an average team. Notre Dame, by comparison, is 16.2 points per game better than average. However, the Spartans have played against a schedule where teams are 1.6 points per game worse than average, whereas the Fighting Irish have played against teams 3.7 points per game better than average.”
Greenburg also presents strength-of-schedule of 1-loss teams (for remaining games) using ESPN data. Seven of the top ten teams (by schedule strength) are in two conferences—the SEC and Pac-12 (Utah, ASU, AZ, and UO; and Auburn, ‘Bama, and Ole Miss). But too much strength can be a problem. When ESPN projected the likelihood of teams winning out (including respective conference championship games) the data suggested that SEC strength may hurt conference teams. How? Most intra-division competition in the SEC West takes place in November. With potential losses looming on the horizon the estimated win-out percentage for Miss St. and Auburn is a paltry 5%. And it’s only 13% for Ole’ Miss and 17% for ‘Bama.
Courtesy: lostlettermen.com
The outcome is clear: The College Playoff has moved the center of gravity from the conferences to a national stage. Championships don’t mean what they once did, especially if you grab a crown but don’t make The Final Four. And that will happen this year—it has to happen—with five Power Conferences and only four playoff slots. At least one conference champion, perhaps two and possibly three, won’t make it. It’s very possible that winning, and then being left out, will provoke further change in how the national playoff is organized.
Bo and Woody wouldn’t like what’s happening today. Not one bit. But they’re gone. What matters now is “Who’s In?”
Endnote: This column is dedicated to my good friend and colleague Bill Rizzo, University of Wisconsin-Madison. We talk about these things all the time. Like many of you we try to make sense of it all.
