Courtesy of rantsports.com
As a fantasy sports columnist, my job each week is to provide you with insight into the action that we see on the field and explain the fantasy ramifications of that action. Over the last couple of weeks, the off the field action of several NFL players has garnered the bulk of our attention, unfortunately, and has zapped some of the joy out of watching football and playing fantasy. The impact of these recent incidents on the lives, careers, and reputations of those involved is real and important…far more important than any impact we talk about here.
But this column is about escaping reality for a few minutes to talk about a game that an awful lot of people enjoy playing. So that’s what I’m going to do. I’m going to say things like “As a starting running back in the NFL, Matt Asiata now has true fantasy relevance and should be owned in all leagues.” And “with Jonathan Dwyer now out, if Andre Ellington can just stay healthy, he has a real shot at some big numbers.” These are my opinions about the fantasy value of certain players based on new opportunities they have now been afforded.
How they got those opportunities and the details surrounding them have been discussed ad naseum across the media landscape. In fact, some of my colleagues here at The Sports Column have written some excellent commentary of their own. You should go read them…after you read my column of course. The point is, I want to enjoy watching football again and fantasy football is one way that I do that. So let’s have fun, shall we?
After two weeks, I’m sitting at a solid 9-2-1 record with my picks so I’m feeling pretty good; especially considering the rash of injuries that took out some pretty big names last week. Here are my 6 players to over or under perform this week:
(All projections are based on ESPN standard league scoring)
3 I Like
QB, Ryan Tannehill (15 pts proj.)- Tannehill hasn’t topped 15 fantasy points in either of his first two games this season, so it’s reasonable to assume he won’t do it again. That being said, I’m confident he gets there this week based on what I’ve seen of him to start this season. He’s clearly developed a connection with Mike Wallace; the only true playmaker on the Dolphins and his running game leaves a bit to be desired this week with Knowshon Moreno out and Lamar Miller handling the workload. Thankfully, he’s at home against a Chiefs defense that through two games, is the 30th ranked defense against fantasy QBs, giving up over 500 yards and 5 TDs already. If you don’t have a top 10 option, Tannehill is my bet to give you that kind of production this week.
RB, Chris Ivory (13 pts proj.)- Through 2 games, Ivory is sitting on a hefty 6.3 yards per rush to go along with a TD in each game. Granted, 2 games a large sample size does not make; however his consistency and the exceptional matchup make him poised to find the endzone again this week. The Bears defense was terrible last year against the run, and in week 1, got gashed by the Bills combo of backs. While Ivory remains in what is nearly a 50/50 split with Chris Johnson in the backfield, the Jets are going to want to lean on the ground game this week. Johnson has been limited in practice this week and Ivory outplayed him last week at Green Bay so I suspect at least 15-18 carries on the horizon for the big back. That should easily be enough to get him over 15 fantasy points this week.
WR, Pierre Garcon (12 pts proj.)- So, last week…yeah, that was bad. But don’t let that 1 catch performance dismay you from starting Garcon this week. With Kirk Cousins under center for the final 3 games of 2013, Pierre Garcon averaged 8 catches for 110 yards per game and scored twice. So those making the argument that RGIII’s absence spells doom for Garcon owners are just being lazy. This week, against a fast paced Eagles team that will force the Redskins to play catchup, I expect Garcon to find himself heavily involved. Even if he doesn’t find paydirt, he’ll rack up enough yards and receptions to make him worthy of WR2 consideration.
3 I Don’t
QB, Tom Brady (17 pts proj.)- After a week 1 loss to the Dolphins, the Pats got back on track with a win against the porous Minnesota Vikings. The bounce back game set up nicely for Brady and the Patriots, yet when the smoke cleared, it was the ground game that excelled with Brady throwing for under 150 yards and just 1 TD. I see a similar picture playing out this week. Oakland is every bit as easy to run on as Minnesota was and I think Stevan Ridley is in for another solid game. Do I think Brady will throw for under 200 yards again? No. But I don’t see an offensive explosion either. Temper your expectations on Tom Terrific this week and frankly, moving forward.
RB, Frank Gore (12 pts proj.)- Gore begins this year as the model of consistency. Unfortunately, it’s consistent mediocrity. He’s rushed for 66 and 63 yards respectively in the first 2 weeks and totaled just 2 receptions for 12 yards. His TD in week 2 salvaged a double digit fantasy game. I don’t expect that again this week against a Cardinals team who has held Gore to an average of 67.5 total yards the past 4 meetings. The 49ers offense is running more and more through Colin Kaepernick and Gore is becoming not just a secondary option, but a third in some cases. Another ho-hum day is in store.
WR, Golden Tate (13 pts proj.)- For years, I’ve been touting the prospects of any receiver lining up opposite Calvin Johnson in the Lions’ offense. For years, it hasn’t worked out. But Golden Tate is exactly what this offense needed, a sure handed “veteran” to run solid routes and be a true #2. He’s tallied 11 receptions in his first 2 games with the Lions and is averaging almost 14 yards per catch. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but I think that changes this week against a Packers defense that last year gave up the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers.
YTD: 9-2-1
