Courtesy of: theblaze.com
58-22
.725
3 out of 4
Q: What do these three stats have in common?
A: They’re all just different ways for me to proclaim my dominance of last year’s inaugural Fantasy 6-Pack column.
A .725 winning percentage; that’s hall of fame numbers right there. If I were a major leaguer, those numbers would put me in line for a big payday. If I were a coach, I’d be inking a long-term extension and receiving a substantial salary increase. Unfortunately I am neither of those things, so my impressive run of picks has simply afforded me the opportunity to come right back here this season and try it again. That’s fine by me though; I’ve been dreaming of fantasy football and week 1 since I hoisted my imaginary trophy as the champion of The Sports Column’s first ever expert league last year (yep, the shameless horn-tooting continues).
And here we are, week 1; let the overthinking begin. Oh come on, you know it’s true. Every year we spend weeks, if not months, preparing ourselves for the most important day of the fantasy season; draft (or auction) day. We research, calculate, project, and finally assemble a roster that we are prepared to take into battle each week. Then all of a sudden Jared Cook is projected for 12 fantasy points in week 1 and you’re talking yourself into starting him over the TE you spent a 5th round pick on. I get it; I really do. It’s so easy to allow yourself to be persuaded by the “experts” opinions and the projections that are based on “formulas” that no one can actually explain.
I don’t call myself an expert (I let The Sports Column do that for me), but I do enjoy putting my knowledge and advice out there for anyone who wants to take it. And my advice for week 1 is always the same; start the guys you drafted as starters. Does Aaron Rodgers have a bad matchup tonight against the Seattle defense? Absolutely. But I’m not about to bench him for Shaun Hill in a home tilt against Minnesota. Could Hill outscore Rodgers this week? Again, I say absolutely. But I’d rather pass on that slim possibility for the more likely chance that Aaron Rodgers plays like Aaron Rodgers (and Shaun Hill plays like…well, Shaun Hill).
With that being said; not everyone has Aaron Rodgers on their team and there are many fantasy owners out there who have some legitimate decisions to make here in week 1. For those folks, I offer up my weekly advice in the form of 3 guys I think will outperform their current projections and 3 guys I think will underperform. So let’s get to it; the week 1 Fantasy 6-Pack.
(All projections are based on ESPN standard league scoring)
3 I Like
QB, Geno Smith (11 pts proj.)- First of all, if you’re the owner I mentioned above with Aaron Rodgers on your roster, Smith is not someone I’d recommend starting over him. With that out of the way, let me tell you why I like Geno this week as a potential top 12 QB; the Raiders are not good. You’re welcome. Yep, that’s the kind of hard hitting analysis you get here with the 6-Pack. Seriously though, the Raiders are not good. Last year, Oakland was the 30th ranked defense against opposing quarterbacks; giving up an average of nearly 19 point per game. This includes the 21 points they gave up to Geno in week 14. That 21 point game, by the way, was the first of 4 consecutive double digit fantasy weeks for Smith as he ended 2013 on a fairly high note. He’s got a solid, if unspectacular, run game on his side and the Raiders haven’t won an east coast road game since 2009. This feels like one of those situations where everyone is talking up the Jets’ offense in the lead up to week 2 after they easily handle Oakland this week.
RB, Shane Vereen (6 pts proj.)- This time last year, Vereen stormed out of the gate with over 150 total yards against Buffalo, only to then miss the next 10 weeks due to injury. This year, the outlook is bright for the pass catching back who is poised to take on a larger role in the overall run game for the Pats. I can understand the tempered expectations for week 1 as Vereen has never fared well against the Dolphins; but having seen how active he was in the offensive scheme during the preseason, and knowing that Stevan Ridley is always a fumble away from being benched entirely; I’d roll Vereen out there in a flex role this week and enjoy the 10 points he’ll produce.
WR, Roddy White (6 pts proj.)- I’m throwing out 2013. Maybe that’s not fair; maybe we need to consider White’s injury plagued season last year as a harbinger of what may come. But I don’t believe so. I am a believer in White, Julio, and a rejuvenated Falcons team this year, and it starts with week 1 against New Orleans. In 10 games against the Saints since 2008 (again, not counting last year), Roddy has produced 6 or more fantasy points in 8 of them. Without the great Tony Gonzalez taking away targets, I expect a return to form this year for Roddy and a solid week 1 outing for both he and Julio Jones.
3 I Don’t
RB, Trent Richardson (12 pts proj.)- I’ve mentioned in this column last year that from time to time I am down on a guy simply because his projection assumes a TD. This is one of those cases. Do I think Richardson could rush for 60 yards? Maybe 50 yards and another 10-15 through the air? Sure; those numbers seem doable. The guy will get the carries and the sheer volume of touches should be enough to get him there. But Denver learned from what happened to them in the Super Bowl last year and they went out and improved their defense. I don’t expect Richardson to sniff the end zone in this game and therefore those 12 points he’s projected for seem extremely unlikely.
WR, AJ Green (15 pts proj.)- I love AJ Green. His combination of size and instincts make him one of the top 3 most dangerous receivers in the game in my opinion. I also think he’s in line to set career marks this year for a Bengals team that may finally prove they aren’t just a mirage. But AJ Green doesn’t love the Ravens. In 5 career games vs. Baltimore, Green has only topped 15 fantasy points once. That came last year when he caught a 51 yard hail mary TD at the end of regulation, inflating his game line. In the other four games against Baltimore, Green has been held to single digit fantasy points three times, including two games of 2 catches and 26 yards each. Certainly the Ravens come into this game with questions about their secondary; but if the pass rush can get to Andy Dalton, those corners may not matter much anyway.
TE, Jared Cook (11 pts proj.)- This one is a head scratcher to me. I suppose the “formula” for producing projections puts far more weight on the player’s opponent than the actual skills of the player himself. Cook has been a guy who has flashed brilliance on very rare occasions, and then faded into obscurity immediately after. Last year he opened up with a 141 yard, 2 TD effort totaling 24 fantasy points. It then took him the next 8 weeks combined before he topped that total. He drops way too many passes to be trusted and the Rams will most certainly turn to second year receiver Tavon Austin more this year, as well as 3-down back Zac Stacy to help Shaun Hill stay on his feet. If Cook tops 5 fantasy points in this game, it’ll be a pleasant surprise.
