Fantasy Football 2014: New Season, New Questions

courtesy of NLF.com

Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls; welcome to the 2014 Fantasy Football season. It seems like only yesterday I was penning my soliloquy on why Josh Gordon should be the first receiver off the board in 2014 drafts and why David Wilson had a real chance to live up to his hype this year. My, what some off-season time can do. Anyway, as Frozen’s Queen Elsa would say, “Let it go…the past is in the past” so it’s time to look ahead at what this season has in store. What do you mean I’ve been watching too many children’s movies? That’s ridiculous; now on with the snow…I mean show. Stop it; look, do you want to build a snowma…er, uh, roster, or what?! Ok, you’ve made your point.

My position on fantasy football, and more specifically the process of drafting a team, has never wavered; for me it’s about taking as much risk out of the equation as possible and giving myself the best chance to win each and every week (before things like injuries, weather, and flukiness come into play). Last year in one of my leagues, I ignored my own advice and took a chance on an upside first round pick in CJ Spiller. It did not work out. I spend a lot of time preparing for each season; following beat writers, watching preseason games, doing unhealthy amounts of analysis. I do this in order to determine for myself which players I feel are safe choices vs. which players bring with them both risk and upside. Tapping into the right mix of those two groups is the key to a balanced draft. But taking a chance in the first round is not a recommendation I make.

You’ve heard the saying “You can’t win your league in the first two rounds of your draft; but you can lose it.” I agree with this completely as I’ve lived it first hand. Rounds 1 and 2 of your draft are extremely important. I’m sure this isn’t breaking news to anyone, but its important to illustrate just how important they are. As Matthew Berry of ESPN notes, the percentage of weekly points scored by the first and second round picks of a fantasy playoff team in 2013 was over 30%. Nearly a third of your weekly total is coming from those 2 roster spots. Don’t get cute with those picks.

Now I know what you’re thinking; it seems that every year a bunch of first rounders flame out, leaving their owners behind the 8-ball, so “going the safe route” doesn’t guarantee you’ll strike gold. I agree that nothing guarantees you success in fantasy football, but I’ll fight you on the point above. Take a look at the ADP (average draft position) of players that landed in the first round of drafts in 2013. Websites vary, but in no particular order your first round probably looked something like this: Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin, Arian Foster, CJ Spiller, Marshawn Lynch, Trent Richardson, Ray Rice, and Calvin Johnson. Now pick out the guys who “flamed out” (understanding that the term is relative). I’m guessing you selected Martin, Spiller, Richardson, Rice, and maybe Foster (though he did average over 13 points per game prior to the injury). Wow! Half of the first rounders weren’t worth anywhere near where they were drafted. Boy, might as well throw up our hands and accept that its a complete crapshoot huh?

I wouldn’t argue with you if you chose to go with that mindset. In fact, I’d welcome it…if you were in my league. The fact is that 3 of those guys (Martin, Spiller, and Richardson) were far from proven commodities; two were sophomores coming off big rookie seasons and one was a split-time ball carrier who we believed would be given the keys to rushing backfield. We took the bait that they dangled and we got caught. Other than Rice, the other first round picks had proven they could live up their draft status and frankly, that’s what they did. My point is that just because a guy doesn’t have the excitement surrounding his name anymore, doesn’t mean he can’t be the anchor of your squad week in and week out. Again, I say don’t get cute with those first two rounds.

Another big topic I continue to hear bounced around is when is the right time to draft a quarterback. After the season we saw from Peyton Manning last year, it’s easy to see why folks are using their first round picks to snatch him up. I get it; if you had Manning on your team last year, you likely sleepwalked your way into the playoffs. But let’s pump the brakes a little. First, does anyone really expect Peyton to improve, or even repeat, his production from last year? If you do, by all means draft him #1 overall…and give me a call because I’ve got some swamp land in Florida for sale. If you’re like the rest of us however, you are prepared for a regression.

So assuming Manning rejoins his earthling brotherhood of quarterbacks, why are you so anxious to grab him early? Since 2010, no less than 9 QBs have amassed over 4,000 passing yards each year. During that time, at least 5 QBs have thrown for at least 30 TDs each year. As quarterbacks continue to increase their point production in fantasy, the tier of elite options has grown. Five years ago, you wanted Manning, Rodgers, or Drew Brees and if you couldn’t get one of them, you were at a constant disadvantage. Today, I can name at least 8 signal callers that I could reasonably see ending the season as #1 at their position. Don’t reach for a position that is full of talent (unless you play in a 2 QB league which changes things entirely) when you should focus your first and second round draft strategy on securing a proven RB to lead your team.

So, now that we’ve gotten some basic strategy points out of the way, lets get to the nitty gritty. Who should you draft? Well as always, I suggest making your own rankings that take into account the experts you agree with the most as well as your gut opinion on guys; this way when you find yourself on the clock and staring at two choices, you simply take the highest ranked since you’ve already decided for yourself who ranks higher. But if you’re looking for somewhere to get started, below you will find my top 10 official preseason ranks for each skill position as well as DEF (and kickers…they’re people too you know!) with links to my full ranks for each position. Check them out, build your draft sheet, and check back with us soon for more fantasy football advice as we head towards the start of the 2014 season.

Quarterbacks (click for full rankings)