courtesy of: NY Post
Welcome one and all to week one of the fantasy baseball season. Let’s all take a few minutes to go around the room and introduce ourselves; maybe tell us a little something about yourself that…wait…Josh Donaldson went 0-9 in yesterday’s double-header! Cliff Lee got rocked in his first start to the tune of 8 Earned Runs! Clayton Kershaw won’t be re-evaluated for at least 2 weeks! Sorry folks, can’t talk now; got a lot of adds and drops to make.
And so goes the first few days of every fantasy baseball season, or as I like to call it; knee-jerk week. Newbies to fantasy baseball often assume that the same principles they follow in their fantasy football leagues will carry over into this new (and very different) game. “One week can make or break my season, I can’t afford to get behind the 8-ball!” This is an absolutely valid argument in football. Most fantasy football leagues only play about a 13-week regular season so one week is about 8% of that chase for the playoffs. But let’s equate that to the baseball season for a moment. A team plays, on average, 6 games out of every week. With 162 games on the slate, one week is only about 3% of the season. And guess what? We haven’t even played one week yet!
If you play in a rotisserie league (the most popular format for fantasy baseball), knee-jerk week is even more heart-pounding. Watching your league’s standings change on a minute-to-minute basis during a game is like watching a live feed of the New York Stock Exchange. The timid investor screams “Sell! Sell!” when things start to get dicey, but the savvy Pro knows to wait it out. The same goes for fantasy baseball. I guarantee someone in your league is freaking out about the slow start of a budding superstar or the sketchy info on the injury to one of their top arms. These rookie owners are watching their roto points plummet and are ready to make those ill-advised roster moves. To them I say wait. For the love of god, don’t press that button! If the dye’s been cast however, I say to the rest of the league…go get em!
The baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. Hopefully you prepared yourself mentally for such a test, and hopefully others in your league did not. Knee-jerk week can be a great opportunity to snatch up value that you missed out on during your draft. If you believed that R.A Dickey would bounce back this year with a 15+ win season and his owner dropped him after he got shelled by the Rays on opening day, go with your gut and pick him up. If you drafted Matt Adams because you saw breakout potential and a 30 homerun season on the horizon, don’t jump ship after two games without a run, HR, or RBI. You did your pre-draft research for a reason; don’t let a couple of bad games sway your opinion.
Let’s take a look at a few players that might have owners grinding their teeth right about now:
Clayton Kershaw: Let’s start with the consensus #1 SP because, well, he was the consensus #1 SP! I generally don’t get too concerned with early season injuries because they happen all the time and if the guy’s a star, he’ll likely play as such upon his return. But this Kershaw thing is real, and it’s frankly a little scary. If I was drafting today, I’d completely stay away from Kershaw. I’m not talking about staying away early and if he falls to me in the 3rd or 4th round, I’ll grab him. I’m talking about staying away completely. Pitchers and back injuries do not play well together. Here’s what we know; Kershaw is being placed on a rehab regime for 2-3 weeks, at which point he will be evaluated and a time-table for his return will be decided. in other words, we don’t have a time-table right now and it’s gonna be weeks before we know anything at all. He could be back by early May or we might not see him until the All-Star break. Speculation? Of course…but that’s all we can do at this point.
Chris Davis: It’s an easy narrative to get behind if you’re a scared Chris Davis owner: guy has breakout, career year, get’s overdrafted, and falls back to earth. It’s certainly plausible and, after the first two games of the O’s season, can’t really be refuted. His 6 at bats have resulted in 1 run, zero dingers and RBIs, and a couple of strikeouts. Don’t panic owners (and O’s fans for that matter). Last year aside, Davis has not typically been a fast starter from a statistical standpoint and one of the two games was against Jon Lester, who has dominated Davis throughout his career. Do I think there’s anyone out there contemplating dropping Davis; no. But I bet there are owners thinking of benching him in favor of a hot bat. To them I say don’t do it. This guy can hit one out of the park on any pitch so keep trotting him out there, it’ll work out in the end.
Hanley Ramirez: If you thought you were getting Hanley Ramirez, circa 2007, you were misguided to say the least. But coming into this season, there were certainly signs of a stronger statistical year than the last couple of seasons. Through four games (a much larger sample size, right?), Ramirez is batting just about a buck with little power and few stats to speak of. Here’s a guy that I could see owners bailing on early. I’m a Hanley believer this year and if I could’ve drafted him, I likely would have. The Dodgers have some issues to deal with right now, but I don’t expect Hanley to be one for much longer. This guy has 25/25 potential and if you can convince his owner to part ways at a reasonable price, I’d grab him.
These are just a few examples of what you might find during knee-jerk week; there are many more out there. The point I want to hammer home is be patient. Don’t make rash decisions about your team, but be prepared to pounce on others in your league who are.
