Courtesy of: ESPN.com
This is it. This is what you’ve played the last 15 weeks for. This is your Super Bowl (or week 1 of 2 for you ESPN standard leaguers out there) and it’s all come down to this. In the coming weeks, I’ll be writing a column giving out awards to fantasy football’s most relevant players this year; I’m guessing if you’re still playing, you probably owned one or more of the guys I’ll talk about.
There are so many ways to win a championship. Perhaps you drafted perfectly; channeling Nostradamus by avoiding all those first round busts and landing guys like Josh Gordon, Zac Stacy, and Knowshon Moreno in the later rounds. Perhaps you drafted horribly, hitting every branch on the injury tree, but played the wire like a no-limit hold ‘em pro. Maybe you’re a wall street savant; pin-pointing exactly the right time to sell high on players who were about to take a dive, and parlaying them into buy-low guys who blossomed under your ownership.
Or maybe you owned Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles, the aforementioned Josh Gordon, and Jimmy Graham and simply mopped the floor with the rest of your league. The way you got here is irrelevant; the point is you’re here and it’s time to buckle those chin straps and get to work.
There are a lot of fantasy experts out there pedaling their unique formula for championship success; some know their stuff while others like to pretend. For me, I subscribe to one basic philosophy for a one week championship matchup – minimize your risk. It’s easy to say “stick with the guys who got you here”, or “play your studs”, but I think they mean different things to different people. At the beginning of the season I told you that my draft strategy was all about finding guys who gave you the best chance for success while limiting your downside. The same goes for this final week.
After 15 weeks of football, we can safely make judgments on players and teams because the sample size is large enough to do so. This means matchups take on a higher level of importance because it’s safe to assume what constitutes a good or bad one. The key for me however, is not to value the matchup over the player. Let’s take the quarterback position for example. Andy Dalton ranks #10 among QBs in ESPN standard scoring for the year. I think most people didn’t expect that kind of production from him going into the season so I’d consider him a success story. Drew Brees ranks second at the position which should come as a shock to no one considering his average draft position as the #2 QB off the board this summer.
This week, Dalton and the Bengals are at home against the Minnesota Vikings. After 15 weeks of football, the Vikings rank 31st in the league in points surrendered to opposing quarterbacks. In contrast, Drew Brees and the Saints travel to Carolina this week to take on a Panthers team that ranks second in the league. If you are playing for your championship this week, it’s very possible that you are facing this dilemma; start Brees or Dalton? Well, if you’re a matchups guy, the answer is obvious. For me though, it’s not so clear.
This season, Drew Brees has had just one game with single digit points (a road game against Seattle). He’s had just three games with under 15 standard scoring points and he’s posted 10 games with at least 19 standard points. Has he played worse on the road than at home? Absolutely. But not as bad as some would have you believe. His road scoring averages out to nearly 16 points per game.
Andy Dalton, in comparison, has posted 4 games of single digit fantasy scoring, 6 games with under 15 fantasy points (3 of which were at home), and has just 5 weeks with at least 19 fantasy points. His most recent single digit performance (a 9 pointer in week 13) came against a SD defense ranked in the bottom 6 in surrendering fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. My point here is that the matchup should not trump what we know about the player. For the Super Bowl of my fantasy season, I am still prepared to roll with Drew Brees over Andy Dalton.
As you head towards Sunday, take a good look at your roster and find the mix of high floor/high ceiling guys that makes you comfortable. Take mine and other fantasy expert’s advice as suggestions, not gospel; this is your team and you should feel comfortable with the lineup you put out there. My rankings are up on this site for your help, as is this column, and below you will find 3 guys I like this week and 3 I don’t. If you own any of them, I hope this advice guides you in the right direction. For the season, I am 52-20 with these picks so there’s a good chance it will. Good luck to all in week 16!
3 I Like
QB, Alex Smith (14 proj. pts)- Smith is a great example of a combination of consistency and recent success. Over the last 5 games, he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in each and recorded over 20 standard fantasy points in 4 of them. This week against a Colts defense ranking in the bottom half of the league against opposing quarterbacks, Smith should have another solid outing. He’s also at home where he’s recorded either 21 or 22 fantasy points in 5 of his 7 games this year; talk about consistency. If you’re looking for a non-stud QB this week, you could do a lot worse than Smith, who gives you both upside and stability.
RB, Frank Gore (13 proj. pts)- Gore’s recent lack of production has come as a result of the improved passing game in San Francisco. He’s only cracked double digit fantasy points in 2 of his past 6 games and only found the end zone once in that period. A home game against a hapless Atlanta defense however is the cure for Gore’s ills this week. On Monday Night Football, I expect the 49ers to come out quick and potentially put this game out of reach by the second quarter. The lead should afford Gore more attempts, and the fact that Atlanta ranks in the bottom 10 in points to opposing running backs, as well as 4th in yards given up to the position shouldn’t hurt either. Expect a bounce back week for Frank Gore.
WR, Marvin Jones (11 proj. pts)- After week 8’s four touchdown explosion, Jones found his way into a lot of fantasy lineups, only to disappoint with 4 straight games of single digits (2 really, if you consider that he had two games of zero points). However, a slight rebound has occurred over the past two games with Jones finding the end zone in each, as well as recording 10 or more fantasy points. This week, the Bengals are at home against the Vikings as we discussed earlier in the column and the matchup sets up as a good one for Jones. While I don’t expect a huge game from Andy Dalton here, I do think he throws at least one, maybe two touchdowns; and with most of the attention on AJ Green, Jones is the likely beneficiary.
3 I Don’t
QB, Tom Brady (16 proj. pts)- After four straight games of 20 or more fantasy points, it’s hard to think Brady can’t top the 16 he is projected for here. However, the points have been coming mainly from yardage totals over that span as he’s thrown for at least 344 yards in every one of those games. This week, Brady is a prime example of a guy who simply doesn’t play well against a certain opponent. The Patriots play at Baltimore this week, a team that Brady has struggled mightily against in recent years. In his last 5 meetings with Baltimore, Brady has completed less than 60% of his passes, average less than 270 yards, and thrown just 5 TDs to go along with 9 INTs. Baltimore is on a 4 game win streak, playing for their playoff lives, and at home where they’ve been very stingy on defense this year. Expect a sub-15 point performance this week.
RB, Zac Stacy (15 proj. pts)- He’s gotten you this far, how can you possibly bench him now? Stacy’s value has been tied to two key factors; volume and TDs. While I think the volume could be there against Tampa Bay this week, I don’t think the TDs will. Stacy is coming off of 1 double digit fantasy game in his past 3, thanks to the 29 total touches he saw against New Orleans last week. This game shouldn’t be a blow out by either side so I imagine 20+ carries is possible again. However, TB ranks 7th in points allowed to opposing running backs this year and has only given up 2 TDs and only 5 games of 100 yards. It’ll be tough sledding for Stacy this week and if he can’t find the endzone, there’s no way he gets more than 10-12 points.
WR, Greg Jennings (12 proj. pts)- It’s been nice to see Jennings become a viable fantasy option again, thanks to the chemistry that has seemingly developed between he and Matt Cassel. Unfortunately, I don’t see it continuing this week against a Bengals team coming off an embarrassing effort at Pittsburgh. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 against opposing wide receivers and Jennings will be a key offensive threat for the defense to focus on. With a hampered (at best) Adrian Peterson, the Vikings could find themselves struggling to the move the ball with first downs few and far between.
Year To Date: 52-20
