Courtesy of: Bleacher Report
It’s been a pretty good inaugural season for the Fantasy 6-pack if you ask me. Out of ten weeks (this column started in week 2), I’ve had just two losing weeks and even gone 6-0 on more than one occasion, including this past week. For the year, I am now 43-17 picking players that I believe will either outperform or underperform their weekly projected points. Pretty good, right?
Here’s the thing; none of that matters now. The past is the past and right here, right now; this is crunch time. For most of you, this is the penultimate week of your 2013 fantasy football regular season and it’s very possible that your postseason hopes are on the line. I play in several leagues myself, but the two that I devote the most time and attention to find me clinging to playoff aspirations with no room for error these last two weeks.
Anecdotes are no longer helpful to you, I get that. You need clear, concise analysis in order to make the best decisions for your team. So in a week of such importance, I’m cutting through the hyperbole and straight to the picks; doubling down on my success over the year to bring you more than just the typical 6-pack. That’s right, this week, I give you a full case! 6 I like plus 6 I don’t…there’s no time to waste, so let’s get to it.
6 I Like
QB, Tony Romo (15 proj. pts)- Divisional games tend to bring out the best or worst of certain players. For Romo, as streaky as he’s been throughout his career, he’s generally played well for fantasy purposes when facing the Giants (as he does this week). In his career, Romo has thrown 27 TDs against the Giants versus 14 interceptions while consistently averaging over 300 yards. Coming out of the bye and facing an improved Giants team should elevate Romo’s game a bit and I’d expect a game that falls right in line with his average against this familiar foe. If Romo can get you close to 300 yards with 2 TDs and a pick, you’ll take that and be happy.
RB, Rashad Jennings (17 proj. pts)- I placed Jennings in this exact spot last week and it was probably the easiest call I made. He had become a very active part of the Raiders offensive gameplan, his coaches planned to get him even more involved, and he was facing a reeling Houston team. 21 fantasy points later, I felt good about the call. This week it seems folks have realized that he’s going to touch the ball…a lot…and his projections show it. But I see him posting a second straight 20 point performance when he takes on a Tennessee team that has given up 2 rushing TDs in each of its last 5 games. There’s no real threat here to Jennings for carriers with McFadden still out, so this week’s 2 TDs go to him.
RB, Ryan Mathews (7 proj. pts)- Last week against Miami, Mathews tallied his 3rd 100 yard rushing performance in his past 5 games. He’s averaging 4.4 yards per carry this year, which is 3rd among running backs with at least 150 carries. This year has been a quiet coming out party of sorts for Mathews who has been overshadowed a bit in the fantasy landscape by the production of fellow back Danny Woodhead. But if you look closely, Woodhead’s production and usage has gone down a bit over the past few weeks and Mathews is seeing more work. Kansas City is a tough opponent, ranking in the top 10 against opposing running backs, but they’ve also been gashed the past 2 weeks, giving up more than 300 yards and 46 fantasy points in total. I expect Mathews to notch another solid outing and upwards of 10 fantasy points.
WR, Vincent Jackson (15 proj. pts)- 3 straight tough pass defenses held Jackson in check before last week’s breakout against a bad Atlanta team. He has certainly struggled against solid defensive units this year, feasting primarily on bottom of the barrel teams. Thankfully, this week Jackson gets his second straight poor pass defense as the Lions come in to the game ranked 31st against opposing fantasy wideouts. They’ve given up multiple TDs to wide receivers in 5 of their last 7 games and over 30 fantasy points in 6 of their last 7. The matchup couldn’t be better for a guy who dominates good matchups.
WR, Kendall Wright (7 proj. pts)- The model of consistency, Wright has logged between 6 and 9 fantasy points in 6 straight games. He receives a high number of targets every week, turning them into at least 5 catches in all but 2 games this year. The problem is he doesn’t break a lot of big plays (he hasn’t topped 100 yards in any game this year) and he doesn’t score touchdowns (1 for the season). I think the TD drought comes to an end this week though against a porous Oakland pass defense that has given up 6 TDs in the past 4 games. If the targets keep coming, eventually Wright will do something with them and I think this is the game.
TE, Coby Fleener (12 proj. pts)- I’ve been bullish on Fleener most of the year and really liked his prospects after the injury to Reggie Wayne. It took a couple of weeks, but Fleener seems to be entrenched now as one of Andrew Luck’s favorite targets. With ten such targets in back to back weeks, he seems like a safe top 10 play going forward, especially this week against a Cardinals defense that has struggled against tight ends all year. Arizona, despite an all-around solid defense, actually ranks last in the league against TEs. Last week Fleener turned his 10 targets into 8 receptions for over 100 yards. He could see similar usage this week, and I expect he’ll take one to the endzone as well.
6 I Don’t
QB, Andrew Luck (16 proj. pts)- Arizona stuffs the run about as good as anyone and we already know that the Colts have struggled to run the ball. So expect Andrew Luck to throw the ball in this game…a lot. That doesn’t necessarily translate into a great fantasy day however. In week 10 against St. Louis, Luck threw a ton and topped 350 passing yards, but also tossed 3 INTs and finished with 13 fantasy points. Arizona has some playmakers in their secondary and I would expect at least one turnover from Luck this week. I don’t expect a poor game from the Colts QB as he’s only posted one of those all year, I just don’t think he’ll make it to his projection in this one.
RB, Bobby Rainey (16 proj. pts)- Let’s not go crowning the journeyman running back just yet ok? Yes, he appears to be the lead back for an NFL team, which in itself carries weight. But let’s not forget that the guy was cut by two other NFL teams just this year. He looked good last week, breaking off a 43 yarder for a score as well as scoring from in close. But don’t expect 30 carries again this week against a defense that is best attacked through the air. I expect to see a little more out of Brian Leonard this week and maybe a 20 touch workload from Rainey, so I’d temper your expectations. He’s a solid option for a flex spot, or even a RB2 if you’re decimated by byes and injuries, but 10 points this week seems like a more reasonable assumption.
RB, DeMarco Murray (12 proj. pts)- A much improved Giants defense that hasn’t given up 20 points to opposing running backs since week 2 awaits Murray in this divisional matchup. The thing that the Dallas running back has going for him is his involvement in passing game, which should help his yardage this week, but the ground game won’t do much against a NY run defense that is giving up just 3.3 yards per carry. As I mentioned above, I think Tony Romo will shine in this game, as well as Dez Bryant and Terrence Williams, but I don’t see Murray finding the endzone which will inhibit his fantasy production.
WR, Pierre Garcon (14 proj. pts)- Garcon hasn’t caught less than 5 passes all year and remains a target monster. But after 2 straight weeks of over 100 receiving yards, he totaled just 68 last week without a touchdown. Garcon’s value is huge in PPR leagues, but with only 3 TDs on the season, he’s just not a big fantasy producer unless he’s racking up big yardage. Against a fairly stout San Francisco defense, I just don’t think he’ll get that kind of yardage and TDs will be tough to come by. I’m going under here, though it may be my least confident selection.
WR, Steve Smith (10 proj. pts)- Another consistently underwhelming fantasy receiver, Smith has caught between 4 and 6 passes in each of his last 7 games and totaled between 50 and 70 yards in 5 of them. His TD production is down and Cam Newton seems more inclined to run it in himself or look to TE Greg Olsen in red zone situations. This week the Panthers face a strong pass defense in Miami, which has given up just 1 TD to opposing WRs all year. I just can’t see a scenario where Smith goes over his average (7 fantasy points per game) in this one.
TE, Antonio Gates (12 proj. pts)- Here’s a combination of a player struggling (only 1 double digit fantasy game in his last 6) and a defense that is really good vs. his position. Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL against opposing TEs in fantasy points allowed, giving up 10 points only once all year and allowing just 1 TD. Coming off a disappointing loss to the Broncos last week, I expect the Chiefs to come out strong against San Diego and hold this offense down all game. Gates won’t top 6 points in this game.
Last Week: 6-0
Year To Date: 43-17
