Courtesy of: twincities.com
We’ve completed six weeks of both the NFL and fantasy seasons, meaning for players of the latter are just about halfway through the grind. I generally play fantasy football with a non-reactionary mantra. I don’t overreact to the first couple of weeks and I try to stick with my original goals when I drafted my team; after all, I drafted these guys for a reason, whether it be upside that I believe existed, a change of scenery that would propel them to greatness, or simply a gut feeling that this was the year. After 2 or 3 weeks, I wasn’t about to abandon my gut and conduct a fire sale for every under-performing star on my roster.
But we’re heading into week 7, the typical halfway point for most standard fantasy leagues, and at this point we have a solid sample size by which to make judgments and predictions going forward. If you find yourself at .500 or better after week 6, you are very much in the hunt for a playoff spot in your league and possibly already claiming one so making the right calls going forward is critical for either holding on or advancing your seeding. If you are below .500, your season may not be over just yet and every transaction you make from here on out is magnified by your standing.
My point is there is little room for error now and you cannot hold on to the preseason views you had of certain players…it’s not the preseason anymore. Let me give you a personal example from one of my teams. Before draft day, I couldn’t have been higher on Mr. CJ Spiller. I bought into the talk out of Buffalo about how they were going to “run him until he pukes” and I looked at the fact that he finished as the 7th best running back last year despite only carrying the ball 207 times. I believed he would be a true lead back for the Bills this year and so I drafted him in the first round with the #6 overall pick.
In week 1, he managed a paltry 2.4 yards per carry and lost a fumble. I threw that game out; it was only week 1, no worries. In week 2, he topped 100 yards on only 16 carries (though no TDs) and I felt validated and convinced that this would be a typical, if not “down”, week for Spiller going forward. Since week 2, Spiller has accumulated just 25 fantasy points, 1 TD, and one nagging ankle injury while playing basically the same, if not less in some cases, snaps as fellow Bills RB Fred Jackson. After six weeks of the fantasy season, I now know that he not only isn’t the #1 RB I drafted back in late August, but also no longer an every week, no-brainer start.
In the league where I own Spiller, I currently sit at 3-3; which is good for 6th place in a league that only sends 4 teams to the playoffs. This week, Spiller and the Bills take on the Miami Dolphins who currently rank 29th in fantasy points given up to running backs, so the matchup is tasty. And despite his questionable status, Spiller is likely to play again this week. However, the Bills’ carries will likely be split evenly between he and Jackson and it’s become extremely difficult to trust him in my lineup. I have a decision to make this week that I never thought I would have at the start of the season.
And so goes fantasy football. No doubt you find yourself with similar decisions to make this week and probably next week and down the line. Trust your gut, but don’t be blinded by preseason expectations. You have 6 weeks of results in the books; use them to make the best decision available on game day. And if you happen to own any of the 6 players mentioned below; let me help you with that decision. Here is this week’s fantasy 6-pack.
3 I Like
QB, Josh Freeman (15 proj. pts)- You probably don’t own Josh Freeman. In fact, until a little over a week ago, no NFL team owned Josh Freeman either. But he’s found a new home in Minnesota and has been named the starter for this week against the Giants on Monday night. The Giants have been a healing salve for many a struggling QB this year, coming in as the 31st ranked defense against fantasy quarterbacks and allowing at least 2 TD passes in every game this year, as well as at least 20 fantasy points to QBs in every game except week 1. Freeman has been given the opportunity to rebuild his reputation with a new coach and new team and this week is his debut. I believe he keeps the Giants tradition going, notching multiple TD passes and upwards of 275 yards.
RB, Andre Ellington (5 proj. pts)- One of these days, the Cardinals are going to wake up and realize that Ellington is the best running back on their team by leaps and bounds and award him the starting gig. In the meantime, he’ll have to keep proving his worth as he’s done all year long. He has yet to log double digit carries in a game, but that hasn’t stopped him from getting involved in other ways. Both his number of carries and receptions has increased each of the last 3 weeks and he has topped 80 total yards in each of the last 2 weeks. I would expect his usage to continue to trend upwards, making him a flex worthy candidate this week and going forward.
TE, Jermichael Finley (11 proj. pts)- Finley is about to see a significant uptick in his involvement in the Packers’ offense. With Randall Cobb placed on IR (with designation to return) and James Jones gimpy, if not sidelined for this game, Finley will likely see a heavy amount of targets coming his way. The Browns are a solid defensive unit, but their best cover man, Joe Haden, will likely be blanketing Jordy Nelson most of the day, leaving Finley as a possible double digit target man this week. After Cobb went down last week, Finley recorded all three of his catches and totaled 75 yards. I would expect at least that kind of production, yardage wise, this week, to go along with double the catches and a score.
3 I Don’t
RB, Lamar Miller (11 proj. pts)- It’s not that you can’t run on Buffalo, you most definitely can. The Bills have given up over 120 yards per game to opposing rushers. However, they’ve also faced a lot of run heavy teams in that stretch and have only yielded one running back TD, making them the 11th best defense against “fantasy” running backs, an important distinction. The Dolphins aren’t a run first team like we thought they would try to be with Miller. He’s logged double digit carries only once in the past 3 games and is practically invisible in the passing game. I would expect Miami to challenge Buffalo through the air where they rank 31st against opposing fantasy receivers, leaving Miller in the barely flex-worthy range.
WR, Larry Fitzgerald (10 proj. pts)- Fitzgerald is coming off his best receiving game of the season, topping 100 yards for the first time and finding the end zone, however he’s landed the not so enviable Thursday night game this week and is still dealing with a hamstring issue. I haven’t even mentioned that the Cardinals are taking on Seattle, the 8th stingiest defense against opposing wide receivers this year, making Fitz a flex option but probably nothing more. Also, and this may just be coincidence, but Fitz has logged his best games this year on the road, totaling just 5 catches, 76 yards, and 0 TDs at home. This week’s matchup? Home. Just saying.
WR, Antonio Brown (15 proj. pts)- Brown has notched at least 9 catches and 80 yards in each of his past 3 games so why would this week be any different? Well, this week the struggling Steelers take on their rivals, the Baltimore Ravens in what has historically been a slugfest. It has been rare for wide receivers to put up big numbers in these games and the Ravens are in must win territory if they want to keep pace with the Bengals in the AFC North. The Ravens come into this game ranked 23rd against opposing fantasy receivers, however that number is skewed greatly by week one’s thrashing at the hands of Peyton Manning when they gave up 5 TD passes. Since then, they’ve only allowed 2 passing touchdowns to wide receivers and I don’t think Brown finds the endzone this week.
Last Week: 4-2
Year to Date: 18-12
