Courtesy of: SI.com
Last week was a good week…and a bad week. I nailed 5 out of 6 picks in the week 5 version of this column and felt really good about them. I watched as both of my fantasy teams sailed to victory on the arms of two quarterbacks who were playing football as if it were a game of Madden set on easy. And then on Monday night, as one result remained somewhat in the balance, I watched my #1 WR make an amazing one-handed grab to seal the win for me.
Oh, and then I found out my #1 WR would miss the rest of the season. Yeah, last week was a good week…and a bad one.
As disappointed as many Julio Jones owners (myself included) are this week, we should be thankful for a few things. First of all, it wasn’t us. Good god, can you believe how painful that had to be? The guy broke a metal screw in his foot. He then proceeded to play the rest of the game…WITH A BROKEN METAL SCREW INSIDE HIS FOOT! I recently stubbed my toe and was out of commission for a week.
Second of all, and this is slightly more fantasy related, we should be thankful it happened now. Week 6 is the Falcons’ bye week so you knew you were going to be without #11 anyway. Think of it as having an extra week to look at your roster, sans Julio, and determining your next course of action. A couple quick fantasy implications here for you to digest:
Don’t sell the farm just to grab Harry Douglas – if he’s available on the wire, feel free to pick him up, so long as you’re not dropping a quality flex option to do so. If another owner picked him up with the idea that he’d dangle him in front of you like a carrot, don’t bite. Sure, somebody’s got to catch the ball in Atlanta, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a shift in game plan once Steven Jackson comes back to a more run heavy offense.
Matt Ryan is no longer an automatic start – Through the first 5 weeks of the season, Ryan ranks as the #6 QB in ESPN standard scoring leagues; however he got to that spot on the back of the #6 WR. The next highest scoring WR on the Falcons is Douglas who comes in at #74. Sure, Tony Gonzalez remains a go-to weapon for Ryan when he needs a receiver to make a play, but Roddy White is not right and Matt Ryan is now in the just inside/just outside conversation as far as top 10 QBs.
I love Tony Gonzalez – Speaking of Gonzo, I love him. I always have and did this year, both in the preseason and during the first 5 weeks. But with Julio out for the year, it’s Gonzalez who is going to see the biggest benefit going forward and I believe he is a top 5 TE the rest of the way.
Now that we’ve touched on the biggest fantasy news of the week, it’s time to move onto this week’s Fantasy 6-pack, which may be one of my riskiest to date. Maybe I’m feeling over-confident after my week 5 performance…or maybe I’m just that good. You decide. Let’s do it!
3 I Like
QB, Matt Schaub (16 proj. pts)- I’m starting off this week’s 6-Pack with a gut call. Look, Schaub is right smack in the middle of probably the worst stretch of his career. A pick-6 in 4 straight games? Unreal. The whispers are becoming shouts and Schaub may very well be playing for his job this week. I believe he comes out on a mission, in front of the home crowd who seems to have turned against him a bit, and plays the best game of his year. The streak of pick sixes comes to an end this week and Schaub tops 20 fantasy points for the first time since week 1.
RB, CJ Spiller (5 proj. pts)- Despite his “questionable” status as of this writing, I think CJ Spiller starts this week after having 10 days to recover from their last game. Spiller has been disappointing this year, absolutely, but he looked better against Baltimore two weeks ago and despite a gimpy ankle, ripped off a nice 54 yard scamper last week against Cleveland. Cincinnati is a stout run defense, having given up 100 yards only once this year, but they haven’t faced a 1-2 punch like Spiller and Fred Jackson yet. I think Jackson will remain productive, but Spiller will begin to assert himself as the top 10 running back we all thought he’d be this week.
WR, Justin Blackmon (10 proj. pts)- Hello Justin Blackmon! Coming off the 4-game suspension, Blackmon exploded for over 100 yards and a TD in his first game back. He’s a big, physical receiver and he’s going to get a lot of work this week and for the rest of the year as the Jags continue to fall behind early and play catch-up in the second half. Cecil Shorts is a nice option on the other side, making both receivers good plays this week against a Broncos secondary that got toasted last week. I think double digit targets is likely again this week and both Shorts and Blackmon will likely top 15 fantasy points.
3 I Don’t
QB, Philip Rivers (18 proj. pts)- Rivers has looked a lot more like his old gunslinging self this year, but he’s been doing it in different ways. A lot of check downs and screen plays to his running backs and not a lot of fire power on the outside. It’s worked so far to the tune of 3 out of 5 games with at least 400 passing yards. Of course those 3 games came against poor pass defenses. The other 2 games (against Tennessee and Houston) resulted in less than 400 yards…combined. This week he takes on an Indy pass defense that has given up single digit fantasy points to two out of the last 3 QBs it’s faced. I think Rivers has a tough game here.
RB, Chris Johnson (13 proj. pts)- This feels like a trap pick. Johnson has only hit this week’s projected total of 13 fantasy points once this season (last week when he had exactly 13). He’s been in the single digits in 4 of 5 games and just last week scored his first TD of the season; which, came on a busted play that resulted in a shovel pass that Johnson took to the house. He’s averaging just over 3 yards per carry and less than 2 yards per carry in his last 2 games. This week he takes on a top 10 run defense on the road in Seattle. A projection of 3 seems a more likely possibility than 13.
WR, DeSean Jackson (15 proj. pts)- Jackson has been his typical boom or bust self this year. After starting the season with back to back 100 yards, 1 TD outings, he fell back to earth with 2 games of single digit fantasy points, only totaling 5 receptions combined. Last week, he reemerged just in time to watch his QB, Michael Vick, go down with a hamstring injury. This week it’s Nick Foles under center when the Eagles take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the 7th ranked defense against fantasy wide receivers. Oh, and the Bucs have a guy named Darrelle Revis over there too. Should make for a long day for the Eagles wideout.
Last Week: 5-1
Year To Date: 14-10
