Courtesy of: CS Monitor
My home league, the one I’ve been commissioner of for 6 years now, typically holds our draft during, or immediately following, the 3rd week of the preseason. The idea being that we’ve all had 3 weeks to scout the players and there is minimal time between the draft and the start of the season for strange injuries to occur or players to get arrested. The time between draft night and opening night is agonizing. The lineups are set, the projections are out, and there’s nothing any of us can do but stare at our roster and either declare imminent victory or embrace impending defeat.
That’s how we are in my league and I bet the same goes for yours as well. You’ve got the people who are so full of irrational confidence, it oozes from their pores like beads of sweat during a nerve-racking final move in that damn episode of Candy Crush you can’t seem to beat (I mean…you know… that’s what I’ve heard it’s like…). And then you’ve got the guys who brace for the worst possible outcome, barricading themselves in their own mental storm shelter until the worst has passed.
The day before the season opening game in Denver between the Ravens and Broncos, a league member took to the message board with a simple subject line of “ugh…”. I opened the message and it was immediately clear which side of the fence this guy was on. The message read (and I’m paraphrasing here since a certain expletive made a brief appearance), “I freakin’ hate my team.”
Two days later, thanks to 7 TDs from Peyton Manning (his starting QB) including 2 to WR Demaryius Thomas (his starting WR1), his tune had changed. And so goes the mental and emotional tennis match of being a fantasy owner. From one week to the next; hell, one day to the next, our feelings toward our teams go back and forth. One week, the matchups look unbeatable; the next week, it’s a train wreck in the making. The season is a marathon, but it’s made up of weekly sprints and that’s how you have to approach it.
This brings us to this week’s version of the fantasy 6-pack where the above example comes into play as a player I was high on last week, finds himself in the “3 I Don’t” category this week. For those keeping score at home, I went 4-2 with my predictions last week (…and wasn’t that far off on Jordy Nelson who only caught 3 passes, though 2 of them were TDs).
(All projections are based on ESPN standard league scoring)
3 I Like
QB, Colin Kaepernick (16 pts proj.)- So there was week 1, when those who drafted Kaep for his seemingly endless upside were rewarded with a masterful performance against GB. Then week 2 happened; you know, that “Mayweather-Pacquiao” battle of NFC West powers that looked more like Mayweather- Ms. PacMan. That was ugly. Some analysts would go with the eenie meenie miney mo technique here to predict a bounceback performance for Kaepernick, but not this guy. No sir! I don’t take the easy way out; I pride myself on thorough research and my research has revealed why Kaep will outperform his projections this week. Are you ready? Here’s the reason…he’s really good. Bam! Look, the guy has room to improve, that’s for sure, but this week seems like as good as any to start. The 49ers come back home to take on a Colts team that had no answer for Terrelle Pryor on the ground in week 1. Kaepernick easily matches Pryor from a running skill set and has a stronger and more accurate arm than Ryan Tannehill who threw for over 300 yards against Indy last week. Look for over 20 points from the 49ers QB this week.
RB, Knowshon Moreno (15 pts proj.)- Yep, you read this right. I’m predicting more than the seemingly lofty expectation of 15 fantasy points for Moreno this week. First of all, the Broncos are at home against the Raiders. Last year, after he officially snagged the starting RB spot, Moreno received 36 touches and tallied over 160 total yards against Oakland. This year, Moreno appears to once again be taking control of the starting gig after a really impressive showing against the Giants last week. Yes, Montee Ball had 12 touches to Moreno’s 13 last week, but don’t forget that Ball fumbled near the goal line early in that game. Manning trusts Moreno and this matchup couldn’t be a better opportunity for him to distance himself within the Broncos’ backfield.
WR, Marlon Brown (10 pts proj.)- Week 1: Ravens get blown out on the road by the Broncos (Brown: 4 catches, 1 TD, 12 fantasy points). Week 2: Ravens grind out a low scoring game at home against the Browns (Brown: 4 catches, 1 TD, 10 fantasy points). Two completely different games against two completely different opponents, yet Marlon Brown has notched out his own little place in Joe Flacco’s world. He was targeted 6 times in both games as well and is clearly a red zone option at 6’5”, 205lbs. With a hobbled or potentially absent Ray Rice brings more available targets for Brown. Other than Torrey Smith, there is no one else Flacco seems to trust among his receivers. I think the double digit fantasy points continue here.
3 I Don’t
QB, Michael Vick (20 pts proj.)- The Chiefs are #1 against the pass as far as fantasy points go through the first two weeks of the season. Vick has been fantastic so far, he made my “3 I Like” portion of this column last week, but Kansas City doesn’t just bring a tenacious defense into Philadelphia tonight, they also bring the Eagles former coach. The Chiefs will gameplan to stop Vick first and take their chances with LeSean McCoy. These Thursday night games are typically of the sloppy variety and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vick responsible for a turnover or two. He should be productive on sheer volume of plays, but I think he falls short of the 20 projected points.
RB, James Starks (15 pts proj.)- Everybody and their mailman raced to the waiver wire this week to grab up Starks once it was clear that things weren’t so clear for Eddie Lacy. Starks took over for the concussed Lacy last week and gouged the Redskins for 132 yards on 20 attempts including a touchdown. But that was then…and that was the Redskins. This week, the Packers travel to Cincinnati to face a tough Bengals defense that is giving up just 62.5 yards on the ground per week, which included week 1 when they faced a very good running back in Matt Forte. I think Starks shoulders the load in this game, I just think that load will be no more than about 15-17 total touches and less than 80 total yards with a 50/50 chance for a score.
WR, Antonio Brown (14 pts proj.)- In PPR leagues, Brown continues to be a solid WR 2 option as he has a tendency to catch what is thrown his way. However, in standard scoring leagues, Brown is on the outside looking in as far as starters go in my opinion. With the departure of Mike Wallace, it was assumed that Brown would see the lion’s share of the targets in Pittsburgh. That has not been the case as he is tied with Jerricho Cotchery for second on the team behind Emmanuel Sanders. Brown is becoming frustrated with his utilization in the offense; the same offense that is struggling mightily to both score and keep its quarterback upright. It doesn’t get any easier this week when Pittsburgh takes on Chicago, and while the Bears aren’t as strong a defense as they were last year, I don’t see Brown scoring in this game, making it very difficult to come anywhere near his projection.
Year To Date: 4-2
