Courtesy of: ProFootball Focus
It’s Tuesday morning around 9:15 and I’ve been (im)patiently waiting for what feels like hours for another pot of high test to finish perking in the office lunchroom. As the final drops of wake-up juice create ripples in the full pot, a co-worker joins me with his own empty mug so I pour him a cup (after my own of course). He’s a football fan and a fantasy owner so our conversation immediately turns to the week 1 highlights.
I mention my convincing victories in both my home league and The Sports Column’s expert league, and own up to a couple of missed calls (thanks CJ Spiller; you too Zach Sudfeld), while he nods along; clearly looking for an opening to unleash a pent up barrage of “I told you so”s and “I totally nailed this one”s. As I stop to take my first sip, he begins. First it’s Julius Thomas. Ok, I’ll give him that. Thomas was on my radar as the Denver folks had been raving about his athleticism and rapport with Peyton Manning.
“Good call.” I say, giving him the atta boy he was so desperately seeking.
Next it’s Shane Vereen. Hmm…in the weeks leading up to the start of the season, I had never once heard him mention Vereen’s name. But ok, it’s possible he had been paying attention to the many signs that projected Vereen as more than just a Stevan Ridley handcuff.
“Yeah, I really thought he was being undervalued in drafts.” I replied, not about to give him full credit for “discovering” the Pats’ running back.
But then he went a step too far.
“Oh, and I totally nailed the Leo Hankerson call.”
Whoa whoa whoa. First of all, this guy doesn’t know Leonard Hankerson; he’s not his cousin’s best friend or a former college roommate, so calling him Leo doesn’t impress me. Second of all, he didn’t nail this call. I know this because in a related conversation several weeks ago, I had to correct this co-worker when he mistakenly thought Chris Cooley was the Redskins’ starting TE. There’s no way this guy even knew who Leonard Hankerson was, let alone predicted his 2 TD performance on Monday night.
But rather than call him out on it, I let him have his moment. Because after all, I can’t prove he was right or wrong about ole’ Hank. And that, my friends, leads me to the purpose of this new column. Beginning today, and running for the remainder of the fantasy season, yours truly will be putting my non-existent money where my mouth is. Each week, I’ll be picking 3 players that I firmly believe will exceed their projections, as well as 3 players that will underperform, and I’ll be posting them right here for everyone to see. I’m calling it “The Fantasy 6-Pack”…I know, its clever right? I won’t be able to hide from these predictions, nor will I claim any surprising performances as “my call”. I’ll stand by these picks each week and keep a running tally of my wins and losses as the year goes on. So let’s get right to it; here is the first Fantasy 6-Pack of the 2013 season.
(All projections are based on ESPN standard league scoring)
3 I Like
QB, Michael Vick (13 pts proj.)- We all sat breathlessly awaiting the fast paced, 80 play-per-game, Chip Kelly offense on Monday night and when the smoke cleared, I had two key takeaways regarding Michael Vick. One: He looked energized and excited to man the S.S. Kelly, something that has been missing since his days in Atlanta. Two: He was surprisingly efficient throwing the ball. Sure, there’s always going to be the excitement of a Michael Vick scamper, but the 60% completion percentage and 112.6 QB rating was a pleasant surprise. This week, Vick and the Eagles come home to take on a San Diego team traveling across the country on a short week after collapsing under the pressure of a 3 TD lead on Houston. His 13 point projection this week should be easily topped. I’d expect closer to 20.
RB, Chris Johnson (8 pts proj.)- This is a case of loving the over more than the team/player. Let’s all agree that Chris Johnson is not the CJ2K he once was. In fact, having watched him for the last couple of years, I think you’re looking at a 1,200 yard, 8 TD kind of player. Nothing wrong with those numbers, but people still want to expect so much more. Last week, against a still-stingy Steelers’ defense, Johnson carried 25 times for just 70 yards, a whopping 2.8 yards per carry. On top of that, he wasn’t targeted a single time in the passing game; a very rare occurrence. So with a terrible YPC mark and no receptions, Johnson totaled 7 fantasy points…1 shy of this week’s projection. Now he travels to Houston where he’s averaged 123 total yards in 9 career games against the Texans including 141 last year. I’m not saying Johnson puts up 20+ this week, but I will take the over.
WR, Kenbrell Thompkins (7 pts proj.)- Thompkins is a rookie who had a rookie game last week. He dropped some passes and ran some incorrect routes. Yet Tom Brady kept throwing the ball his way to the tune of 14 targets. This week, the Pats head home to welcome the Jets on a short week, and they do so without TE Rob Gronkowksi, RB Shane Vereen, and most likely, WR Danny Amendola. The only real experienced wideout on the Patriots at the moment is Julian Edelman, so you have to figure the Jets will do their best to keep him contained. I expect another healthy share of Brady’s targets and a much better showing from the young receiver this week.
3 I Don’t
RB, Trent Richardson (16 pts proj.)- In this business sometimes you get gut feelings and it’s up to you decide whether to go with them or not. This is my gut feeling of the week. The Ravens come back to Baltimore licking their wounds after an embarrassing defeat in Denver on opening night. What they’ll come home to however is a raucous stadium filled with fans who can’t wait to lift up their Super Bowl Champions and cheer them to victory. The Ravens know the stats as far as teams that start 0-2 and their playoff chances. They get up for this game and T-Rich gets shut down.
WR, Jordy Nelson (14 pts proj.)- Jordy looked more like the 2011 version last week than the 2012 version. Against a Washington secondary that is extremely suspect, he seems like a lock for these 14 points. But James Jones was held catchless last week, something I don’t expect to happen again. I foresee Jones being a factor in this one and Nelson getting the short end of the Aaron Rodgers targets. He could still top 100 yards in this game, but I don’t think he finds the endzone.
QB, Russell Wilson (17 pts proj.)- Last week, Wilson found little room to run against a stout Carolina front seven and was forced to the air. The good news; he racked up 320 passing yards. The bad news; he only found the endzone once and despite the high yardage total, ended up with just 14 fantasy points. This week, the sledding doesn’t get any easier as the 49ers come to town. I don’t necessarily think Wilson will be held to just one TD, but I don’t see him topping 250 total yards so I’m taking the under with confidence here.
