Courtesy of: Yahoo Sports
“I’ll take Chris Johnson.”
The words had barely escaped my lips and already and I was desperately reaching to pull them back in. It was around this time last year and we had just begun the opening round of my Charm City Football League draft, a league I’ve presided over since 2007. I was sitting on the 4th pick in the first round and was committed to taking a RB first. The first three picks off the board were predictable, with Arian Foster, Ray Rice, and LeSean McCoy going in succession. And just like that, the clock was on me. Coming off a dismal 2011 campaign, CJ”I sure hope he can get back to”2K was on my radar along with a few others like Matt Forte, Darren McFadden, and DeMarco Murray. All four ball carriers had upside to go along with red flags, but I had a good feeling about Johnson and the potential for a bounce back season. So I pulled the trigger.
Looking back on the 2012 season as a whole, Johnson wasn’t nearly the bust that McFadden and Murray turned out to be (though through the first 5 games of the season, I was shopping the Titans back for nothing more than a Starbucks grande macchiato). His 1,400+ total yards and 6 TDs were respectable, but certainly not what you’d expect from a first round pick. The choice to go with Johnson was a “best of the rest” sort of decision, having felt that the group represented a tier below the top 3. But seeing as my intention was to grab a RB in the first round, I felt he was the best option available.
In every draft, there are players that give you pause when comparing their potential to their average draft position. Either they seem overvalued, going a round or two above where you’d feel comfortable drafting them, or undervalued, representing a potential steal. Despite statistics, logic, and even gut feelings about some of these players, there is almost always a player you end up drafting sooner than you’d like and end up regretting.
So in an effort to save you from the morning-after shame I lived with during last year’s Chris Johnson impulse pick, I’m here to take you on a round by round analysis of players I highly recommend you DO NOT draft in the round they are currently going. Let’s start with the high profile, star-studded first round.
Round 1
Arian Foster, RB, HOU
Whoa! This is blasphemy! How can I possibly recommend not drafting Foster in the first round? Well first of all, put the torches and pitchforks down for a moment. I should qualify this pick right off the bat. You can’t get Arian Foster in anything but the first round. In fact, if you’re holding any pick outside the top 3 (or possibly 2) of the first round, you can count him out as well. I’m not saying Foster isn’t a first round talent, or that he’s not worthy of a first round selection; what I am saying is that he gives me the heebie jeebies this year and I don’t want to use my first round pick on him.
I’ve already made my draft strategy clear in my Fantasy Formula so I wasn’t going to take the easy way out here and tell you not to draft Calvin Johnson or Aaron Rodgers. I’m not taking anyone other than a RB in round 1 so those guys were already off the table. That leaves 8 RBs going in the first round of standard 10-team leagues, and with Adrian Peterson off the board as the consensus #1 pick, if you’re sitting at pick #2 you’ve got your choice of the lot.
Here’s what bothers me about Foster (in no particular order). Since becoming the leading man in Houston in 2010, his yards per carry have dropped each year (from 4.9 to 4.4 to 4.1) while his carriers per game have increased (from 20.4 to 21.4 to 21.9). Considered an above average pass catcher out of the backfield, Foster has also seen his receptions decrease each of the past 3 seasons from 66 to 53 to 40 last year. While it’s true that the Houston Texans ran the ball the 4th most times in the NFL last year, the three teams that ran it more (Seattle, New England, and Washington) possess either multi-faceted QBs who can beat you on the ground and through the air…or Tom Brady. The Texans possess neither, making it clear that their offense relies on the ground game. Combine that with an aerial assault that ranked 18th in the league in pass attempts and revolves around a receiver who has had trouble staying on the field (Andre Johnson has played 16 games in only half of his past 6 seasons) and you have a recipe for teams stacking the box against Foster.
Now none of this comes as surprise, in fact teams have known that the Texans beat you on the ground for several years now and yet Foster continues to rack up the fantasy points. How does he do it? By being an incredibly effective red zone rusher and touchdown machine. But what if Foster takes a page out of Megatron’s 2012 season where the Lions’ receiver was tackled on the opponent’s 1 yard line an incredible 6 times? Last year, 41% of Foster’s fantasy points came via the TD. With a steadily declining YPA and reception total, I’d hate for my reliable TD scorer to suddenly become unreliable. All this is to say that when you take the numbers, situations, and health (Foster is a durable player, but always seems to present concerns about possible missed time), Arian Foster is just not my guy this year.
Round 2
Peyton Manning, QB, DEN
Peyton Manning is currently being drafted in the top half of the second round in ESPN standard scoring leagues. You know, 37 year old Peyton Manning with the fused neck and dwindling deep ball accuracy. I love Peyton Manning, I think he’s the greatest quarterback of our generation and one hell of a rapper. That being said, I think we can all agree that Manning’s 2012 season was above and beyond our expectations. He through for over 4,600 yards and 37 TDs at age 36, having not played in a game for an entire year. Amazing! But as amazing as it was, he wasn’t the highest scoring QB in fantasy, nor was he the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th highest scoring QB in fantasy. He finished the season tied for 5th among QBs and just 13 points ahead of the 8th highest scoring QB.
Courtesy of: SI.com
Can he do it again? Sure, anything’s possible…we saw what Brett Favre did with Minnesota in 2009 at the age of 40. But regression seems more likely, especially with the Broncos having drafted Montee Ball as their potential starting back and TD vulture. So if Manning drops even the slightest bit from the rafters of 2012, he could easily end up at the back end of the top 10 QBs when the season ends. Is that really worthy of a 2nd round fantasy pick when guys like AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Steven Jackson, and Matt Forte are all on the board? I don’t think so, which is why Peyton is unlikely to be on any of my rosters this season.
Round 3
Andre Johnson, WR, HOU
No, I’m not just picking on the Texans today; it’s just that many of the points I raised about Arian Foster above are completely related to why I don’t like Andre Johnson in the 3rd round. If you followed my drafting strategy and went RB/RB in rounds 1 and 2, round 3 is your shot at a #1WR. This is the best you’re gonna be able to do at the position. Do you want to trust it to a guy who’s never had double digit touchdowns in his career?
We’ve already established that the Texans are a run-first offense. You could say that this opens up the field for a guy like Johnson who is as big and powerful as they come. Well, between the 20s I’d agree with that logic. But the concern with Johnson (besides his health) is in the red zone. For the past 4 seasons, Johnson’s red zone targets have steadily decreased from 28 in 2008 to 7 in 2012. Seven. And that was in 16 games, a rare full season for the aging wideout.
This April, the Texans drafted highly regarded wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. It’s possible that the presence of a talented receiver on the opposite side of the field is what Johnson needs to free him from double teams and extra safety coverage downfield. It’s also possible that if this rookie wideout lives up to his billing, Johnson’s first name might not be the only thing he’ll be stealing. Get it? His first name has “Andre” in it and he’ll be stealing targets…oh c’mon, that was good. Alright, last point on Johnson’s draft position. Currently going 5 spots behind Andre is Randall Cobb of the Green Bay Packers. In a statement earlier this year, Aaron Rodgers declared that Cobb could be a 100 catch guy and called him a “big time star”. If the best QB in fantasy plans to increase Cobb’s catches from 80 to 100, I have no problem taking him ahead of Johnson in the 3rd round.
