All-star ballots are flowing in. Temperatures are rising. We are nearing the half-way point of the baseball season and that is the time when many baseball pundits retract their preseason predictions and start anew with fresh views that are made much clearer with the completion of 81 games.
However, the one division that has not become any clearer is the American League East. Every single team has won more games than they have lost and the standings look backwards from how many saw it shaking out. Boston leads the division with New York and Baltimore on their heels. Following them are the two preseason favorites, Tampa Bay and Toronto.
At this point, any team could take it; the difference between first and last place is 7.5 games with over 80 still to be played. But I’m going to try and make sense of it team by team and tell you who is contending and who is pretending.
Boston Red Sox
Current Status: 48-33, 1st Place
No one saw this season coming from the Red Sox. It all seems too good to be true. Many felt that Jon Lester was going to have to compete for a Cy Young award if this team was to compete. Well, he is not doing that; he currently sports a 4.57 ERA. But Clay Buchholz was before going on the DL. The man is pitching out of his mind. In 12 starts he is 9-0 with a 1.71 ERA and a .195 BA against. An unexpected anchor of the rotation has actually been John Lackey who has recovered from an early season arm injury and now looks like he did in his hay day with the Angels. He is pitching to the tune of a 2.99 ERA in 13 starts with a 8.4 K/9; a ridiculous number for a starter in his mid-30’s.
Another area of concern was the bullpen and that looked valid to start the year. Joel Hanrahan was a train wreck at closer; he had a 9.82 ERA and 2 blown saves before being placed on the 60 Day DL. His replacement, Andrew Bailey, didn’t fare much better. But getting to the closer has been a breeze. Craig Breslow, Koji Uehara, and Andrew Miller have been great. Uehara is the one closing games at the moment.
The most impressive part of the team has been the offense. David Ortiz is crushing the ball; .319 BA, .620 SLG, 16 HR, 57 RBI. Pedroia has been his solid scrappy self, adding a .318 batting average with 45 RBI and 11 steals. Add to that Jacoby Ellsbury’s MLB leading 32 steals and the unexpected level of production from Mike Carp and Daniel Nava and you have the most productive offense in baseball.
Verdict: Contender
Prediction: As long as the pitching can be serviceable then the offense can carry this team to the playoffs. -1st Place AL East
Courtesy: Yahoo Sports
Baltimore Orioles
Current Status: 44-36, 2nd Place 3.5 GB
Tommy Hunter and Darren O’Day have been spectacular out of the ‘pen with a 2.13 and 2.38 ERA, respectively. Pedro Strop has continued his struggles of late last season with his ERA up above 7.00, at the moment. Jim Johnson has been solid, but not nearly as dominate as last season, with 5 blown saves already.
As bad as the pitching has been, the offense has overcome and carried this team. The Orioles lead the league in home runs. They have two MVP candidates in 1B Chris Davis and 3B Manny Machado. Davis is leading the world in home runs at 28 to go along with 73 RBI, a .330 BA, and a 1.112 OPS. Machado leads the world in doubles, with 36 and is on pace to break the single-season record for doubles of 67. Adam Jones is also having a heck of a year, as is JJ Hardy. At the moment, Davis is on pace for over 150 RBI, Jones for over 100 RBI, and Hardy for over 90 RBI. The team can even run a bit; Nate McLouth is third in the league in stolen bases with 24.
In Baltimore, they are hoping that young righty Kevin Gausman can be a catalyst for the rotation with his monstrous fastball and that Wei-Yin Chen, who has been out about a month, can come back and continue his Tom Glavine-esque ways on the mound.
Verdict: Contender
Prediction: The pitching won’t be this bad. Wei-Yin Chen will be back soon and Dan Duquette has made it a mission to trade for an arm before the July 31st deadline. -2nd Place AL East
New York Yankees
Current Status: 42-36, 3rd Place, 4.5 GB
This team is hard to talk about because they don’t look like the Yankees. Everything they do is unspectacular, ho-hum. Brett Gardner leads the team in average at .287. Their top base stealer is Ichiro with 12. Robinson Cano has been solid, .277 BA, 16 HR, 46 RBI, but doesn’t look like a guy trying to ink a $200 million deal.
All of their star power is on the DL. Curtis Granderson has played 8 games in between DL stints. The same goes for Mark Teixeira, who will now have season-ending wrist surgery. The captain, Derek Jeter, is nearing a return. Alex Rodriguez was recently told to “shut the (heck) up” by the Yankees General Manager when it comes to his rehab. The team has had to rely on production from the likes on Lyle Overbay, Travis Hafner, and Vernon Wells; all who are well past their prime.
The fact that this team doesn’t wow you is what seems to be keeping them afloat and in contention. They are solid. They field well; third best in Major League Baseball. The bullpen has been pretty awesome. In his final season, Mariano Rivera has 26 saves and has only blown one opportunity; currently sporting a 1.55 ERA. Preston Claiborne has a measly .205 BA against in 20 games with a 1.52 ERA. Plus, David Robertson has been himself with 39 K’s in only 31.1 innings pitched and a .191 BA against.
The rotation is another component that is in the middle of the pack in baseball. Hiroki Kiroda has been the stalwart; in 100.2 innings he has gone 7-5 with 68 K’s, a 2.77 ERA, and a .227 BA against. CC hasn’t been himself but has competed with an ERA just above 4 and it’s a similar story for Andy Petitte.
Verdict: Pretender
Prediction: The team has already started to slow down and I see that continuing. I do think they will get a shot in the arm when DJ returns but it won’t be enough. I see a .500 finish. -3rd Place AL East
Tampa Bay Rays
Current Status: 41-38, 4th Place 6.0 GB
The way Tampa has been playing couldn’t have been predicted by many people going into this year. The team ERA is above 4.00 and the 7th worst in all of baseball. On the other hand, the offense has scored the 7th most runs in all of baseball and has hit 90 home runs; good for 6th in the bigs.
The rotation has been a roller coaster ride. Defending Cy Young Winner David Price has had a rough go of it. His ERA had climbed above 5 to 5.24 before he was placed on the DL with a triceps strain in May. Lefty, Matt Moore started the season on fire with an ERA under 2 during April, since then he has seen his ERA get up to 3.95 but he is striking out just under a hitter per inning. Even the bullpen has had its struggles where Fernando Rodney has blown 5 saves and an ERA of 4.83. The stand out of the pitching staff is 25 year old Alex Cobb who has 5 wins and an ERA of 3.01.
This team has won with the bats. Evan Longoria is tearing it up once again batting .299 with 17 bombs and 47 RBI. Ben Zobrist and James Loney have complemented him well. In fact, Loney leads the team with a .309 BA. Other than Longoria, most of the power has come from Matt Joyce who has 14 home runs and Kelly Johnson who has 11.
This team is hoping the future is now for a couple youngsters they just brought up. Uber-prospect, Wil Myers, was recently added to the big league squad and has 2 home runs in his first 10 games with the club. A few weeks before that, righty Chris Archer was placed in the rotation and he has held his own. The guy has electric stuff and can definitely help this team.
Verdict: Pretender
Prediction: The pitching will likely rebound a bit but not enough to make up for the lack of run production they will soon suffer. This season will be the worst for Tampa since the Devil was removed from their name. -5th Place AL East
Toronto Blue Jays
Current Status: 39-39, 5th Place 7.5 GB
Courtesy: Bleacher Report
Going into the season hopes were high in Toronto. The Jays just had a huge offseason. They added the reigning NL Cy Young award winner in RA Dickey, speedster Jose Reyes, veteran lefty Mark Buerhle, and former All-Star Josh Johnson. On paper, the rotation was solid and the lineup could hit with anybody in the game. It all made sense and had different sports pundits putting them in the World Series. But the season started sour and by the end of May they were 9 games under .500. Dickey was struggling on the mound, Reyes suffered an ankle injury, and Johnson had a triceps injury. However they rebounded and have just recently won 11 in a row and 12 of 15 games to get back in contention.
The offense is second in baseball with 100 home runs and can score some runs. Losing Jose Reyes was a big blow for a while and now that he is back it gives them another dimension to their game that allows for hit and runs and stolen bases.
The pitching has been a mixed bag. The rotation has struggled. Johnson’s ERA is 4.60, Dickey’s is 4.72, and Buehrle’s is 4.73. Righty, Brandow Morrow, who may have the best stuff on the team, has an ERA at 5.63. However, a switch is flipped when the game is turned to the bullpen. They have been lights out. Closer Casey Janssen has converted 17 of 18 save opportunities with a 2.10 ERA with a microscopic BA against of .159. In addition to him, there has been lefties, Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup and righties, Neil Wagner and Steve Delabar all with ERA under 2.00.
Verdict: Pretender
Prediction: The offense is for real but the rotation will continue to struggle causing the bullpen to pick up more innings. They crumble under the workload and the team sputters from mid-August to the finish line. -4th Place AL East
*ALL STATS reflective of 6/26/13.*
