NBA Conference Finals Predicition

*FAN SUBMISSION by Jack Bolesta of College Park, MD.  Follow him on Twitter @jackbolesta.*

The 2013 NBA playoffs continue and now the Eastern and Western Conference finals are set. Both of these matchups will be physical and suspenseful. All four teams have displayed traits and qualities of championship caliber teams , now the question is who will be making it to the 2013 NBA Finals.

Eastern Conference Finals
Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
Heat win 4-3

The Indiana Pacers have eliminated the New York Knicks and now await a re-match against the Miami Heat, after being eliminated from the 2012 Eastern Conference Semi-Finals. After holding a 2-1 lead against the Miami Heat, the Pacers were eliminated, as the Heat beat them three straight games to advance their championship dreams and end the Pacers.

Courtesy: LA Times

The Pacers now have the opportunity to get revenge for last year’s playoff elimination as they look to dismantle the Heat and move on to the 2013 NBA Finals. Both of these squads have grown dramatically since their last playoff meeting. The Pacers had superstars emerge with increased production from Paul George, Roy Hibbert, David West and D.J. Augustin . A strong advantage for Indiana is their physical style of play and ability to rebound the basketball. The Heat just came out of a very physical series against the Bulls, so I believe the Heat will be ready to bang it out.  This means that the Pacers need to make sure they win the game on the boards every night. So far these playoffs, the Pacers are the best rebounding team averaging 47.3 rebounds a game and 12.7 of them are offensive rebounds.  I cannot stress enough how important rebounding will be for them; currently the Heat are average 6.6 more points a game then the Pacers and with offensive superstars LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, it is important they do not allow for second chance opportunities.

Something has been very apparent this postseason; NBA players miss a lot of free throws. Out of all the teams left, the best free throw shooting team is the Memphis Grizzles at 76.7% as a team. The Heat are 75.1% from the line as a team and the Pacers are currently shooting  74.1% as a team from the line. In a physical series, where a lot of fouls will be called, it is critical the Pacers shoot better from the free-throw line if they want to win. We saw the Bulls suffer because of missed free throws (as a team they shot 72.0%) and for Indiana will need to shoot a solid 80% from the free throw at least.

For the Miami Heat, they will need to come out strong every night to be prepared to battle the Pacers physical defense. Currently they are shooting better than anyone these playoffs, as a team they are currently shooting 49.1% from the field.  With many scoring options the Miami Heat are one of the most offensively sound teams playing. Shooting well is one thing, but when you share the ball better than any other team it makes you that much more of a threat. The Miami Heat will need to continue their style of non-selfish play; currently they are averaging 23.1 assist per game which is great statistic.

The biggest factor in this series is 4-time MVP, LeBron James; Paul George will need to strap him down nightly.  The Pacers do have the chance to pull an upset against the Miami Heat but they will need to stop LeBron James to do so.

Western Conference Finals
Memphis Grizzles vs. San Antonio Spurs
Grizzles win 4-3

The Memphis Grizzlies are currently looking to make their first NBA final appearance  in franchise history and to do so, they have to go through Tim Duncan, Gregg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are looking to raise another banner and return to the NBA Finals, a place that is very familiar. During the regular season, the Grizzles and Spurs split their series 2-2 and the home team won all four games. During the 2011 NBA Playoffs, the Grizzles, without Rudy Gay, upset the number 1 seed San Antonio Spurs during the first round. Zach Randolph was almost unstoppable during this series.  During this series, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol and Michael Conley will need to come out very aggressive against the fundamentally sound Spurs.

Out of all the teams reaming, the Spurs are averaging the most points per game, 102.8. The Grizzlies will need to win the defensive battle to secure this series and advance. Fortunately, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph can share responsibilities in shutting down Tim Duncan. The Grizzlies’ guards will need to be very aggressive taking on Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, something the Golden State Warriors were unable to do.  Both Memphis and San Antonio, have been able to hold their opponents  to 43% shooting from the field per game. This series will come down to defense each game.

The Grizzlies are the best shooting team from  2pt field goal range, in the playoffs thus far, shooting 81.7%.  If the Spurs can stop the Grizzlies from successful shooting they will have a higher chance of winning. Home court advantage will play a big role in this series but, if they Spurs allow the Grizzles to be as successful as the Warriors were in San Antonio, they will be in a lot of trouble. The first two games of this series will be the most important; if the Spurs lose one or both I believe the Grizzlies will send them home packing. Though, if the Spurs are able to hold down home court advantage they should be able to advance. Expect a long nail biting series; we have never seen the Grizzlies come this far so it’s hard to predict but we know that the Spurs can play under pressure, the question is, can the Grizzlies match that type of play?

Prediction: 2013 NBA Finals : Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies

All statistics credited to NBA.com